78Blizzard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Maybe this is the swan song for the current GFS as it goes into retirement. It's making a statement that it was a good idea to replace it. Then again, if it's right and schools the rest, it will get the last laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: I just think he’s a newbie...hasn’t seen the GFS personality in this type of set up very often. We see in the end...hope GFS trends back toward EURo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: Lol - GFS most consistent model...tough to go against consistent...EURO may do full cave tonight with sampling better ...GFS will be crowned new king or if wrong EURO says get out of my house...battle Royale here! DoRatWx is not happy with how your conducting yourself and representing his city. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GEM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 CMC is nothing like the GFS. Foot + for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: CMC is nothing like the GFS. Foot + for SNE. Looks fabulous for most in SNE. GFS is doing the usual sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Looks fabulous for most in SNE. GFS is doing the usual sh*t. Ya i feel that way too, seemed early on like it was trending in the right direction but then it just fell apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The Euro will be interesting. I have may doubts about the GFS beating the higher res and better physics of the other models. Hell, Even the GFS Para, Which isn't usually taken seriously, almost grazed Nantucket with the surface Low. So again, How can the GFS be like this at this juncture? I will definitely be impressed and disappointed if it somehow ends up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 00z GEFS mean is actually more west and northwest than the operational. Also the individual members are more west and northwest of the mean with more members than previous runs, they also prolong the precipitation more from hours 78 to 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I know the NAVGEM is rarely used these days due to being outdated and not really high resolution fields anymore, but it does have a progressive tone to its forecasting and we were told to have a red flag to the progressive side of the solutions envelope whenever the model was more amped and further northwest. Well the 18z NAVGEM was just as similar to the 84 hour NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Cmc buries epa over and over again. It’s been pretty consistent fwiw. Let’s see how this shakes it over the two days because we’re still not inside the red zone. We’re probably just getting to midfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z GEFS mean is actually more west and northwest than the operational. Also the individual members are more west and northwest of the mean with more members than previous runs, they also prolong the precipitation more from hours 78 to 96. There are more tucked in members for sure, but the north progression still isn’t very good. Most get shunted east at/south of cape may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Greg said: The Euro will be interesting. I have may doubts about the GFS beating the higher res and better physics of the other models. Hell, Even the GFS Para, Which isn't usually taken seriously, almost grazed Nantucket with the surface Low. So again, How can the GFS be like this at this juncture? I will definitely be impressed and disappointed if it somehow ends up being correct. It's entirely possible that the GFS is right. If the spacing between the main shortwave and upstream shortwave are too close, a sheared out mess is possible. 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z GEFS mean is actually more west and northwest than the operational. Also the individual members are more west and northwest of the mean with more members than previous runs, they also prolong the precipitation more from hours 78 to 96. So this above is also not surprising. The 00z GFS is probably the worst result, with narrow wavelength and extremely sheared mess by the time it reaches New England. So it stands to reason that the GEFS would have plenty of members that have greater spacing and more amplified solutions, dragging the mean north with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: Fair point but 4 runs in a row of consistenty and sampling better with 0z runs...just saying GFS in its prime zone now and 4 straight runs and no model is trending NW, EURO has started its SE trend already... you'll learn......gfs is stubborn AF in these setups.......we are still 60 yours away.......the GFS will cave at some point and it will do it maddeningly slow......we've seen it wait until like 24 hours out before it does so.......you'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cmc buries epa over and over again. It’s been pretty consistent fwiw. Let’s see how this shakes it over the two days because we’re still not inside the red zone. We’re probably just getting to midfield. The eastern pa, New Jersey to southeastern New York crush has been mindbogglingy consistent on just about every piece of guidance every run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hard to tell if the Ukie is good. Low res panels have a low on the VA/NC border at 72 and well OTS at 96. Comparing the pressure pattern (how are the isobars oriented) and the H5 heights, it is significantly more robust than the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 22 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z GEFS mean is actually more west and northwest than the operational. Also the individual members are more west and northwest of the mean with more members than previous runs, they also prolong the precipitation more from hours 78 to 96. No it is not at all, it is in good agreement with the gfs. The gefs gets precip .50 inch line more north but is in line with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Comparing the pressure pattern (how are the isobars oriented) and the H5 heights, it is significantly more robust than the GFS. It does seem slower though too when compared to the cmc for example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: It does seem slower though too when compared to the cmc for example Both Canadian models were pretty darn fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, wizard021 said: No it is not at all, it is in good agreement with the gfs. The gefs gets precip .50 inch line more north but is in line with the gfs. Precip should not be something you hammer on at this point, watch track and H5 adjustments! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Seeing the GFS ensembles so far south and east is concerning. We've seen outlier models score coupes before with big systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I wish the euro was out earlier so we wouldn’t dissect crap for 4 hours during active threats. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, BombsAway1288 said: Seeing the GFS ensembles so far south and east is concerning. We've seen outlier models score coupes before with big systems. When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: When? 6 minutes ago, wizard021 said: No it is not at all, it is in good agreement with the gfs. The gefs gets precip .50 inch line more north but is in line with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 What is everyone looking at with the GEFS mean? While yes the mean might be southeast, but the bend and anomaly is to the northwest, the bend is to the northwest where most members are located, not southeast. Might have a few members that are strong and skew the mean to the southeast, but that does not mean the majority of members agree on a southeast tug, they are more northwest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 59 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: Lol - GFS most consistent model...tough to go against consistent...EURO may do full cave tonight with sampling better ...GFS will be crowned new king or if wrong EURO says get out of my house...battle Royale here! The GFS gave Boston 31" 24 hours ago. What an utterly clueless post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The GFS gave Boston 31" 24 hours ago. What an utterly clueless post. Just made up drama that does not need to occur! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: You didn’t answer my question. When has the outlier been right when it’s been the gfs In a bog system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: You didn’t answer my question. When has the outlier been right when it’s been the gfs In a bog system? Thought you meant when did the ensembles go south and east. I'm not Will and terrible at remembering specific systems but do remember the NAM riding solo in the mid-long range on systems all by itself and scoring coupes. To be fair, I can't remember the GFS specific being an outlier and scoring a coupe but other models yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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