Active mid December with multiple event potential

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

But what would happen if the airplanes just...went away?

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don't believe anyone took that post seriously

Why wouldn't they? It's true. Set -up is different. Take a look at the KU book if you don't believe the set-up.

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Why wouldn't they? It's true. Set -up is different. Take a look at the KU book if you don't believe the set-up.

That post as in the initial one saying setup is similar

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, BrianW said:

The wife and I adopted this Weenie and he is from your town. He is a legit Weenie.. a Chiweenie actually. Half chihuahua/dachshund. He is ready for some snow!

 

That’s an official good luck weenie. Well done.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Do people have reasons to think the storm will tick north or is it just hopefulness? Like what are the synoptic features that would suggest this might come north?

Vortmax is coming in pretty far west. Even compared to previous storms that got crunched for BOS like Dec 20-21, 2009 or Jan 2016. Often the models underestimate latent heat release to the east of them which is why ticks north on huge systems are somewhat common. They can be offset by huge blocks but a lot of the confluence on these past storms (with further east vort maxes) was significantly more than the current threat we’re seeing. 

So add it up and I’d favor more bumps north than the other way around. Most of the spread on ensembles is to the north too which is suggesting that there’s more room for small initialization errors being corrected to produce more northerly results. 

Forecasting a big probability game. It’s maybe something like 50% it trends north, 30% chance it roughly stays the same, and 20% it trends south. You can’t ignore the 20%. 1 out of 5 happens plenty of times. But you will pay more attention to the 50%. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

. It’s maybe something like 50% it trends north, 30% chance it roughly stays the same, and 20% it trends south. You can’t ignore the 20%. 1 out of 5 happens plenty of times. But you will pay more attention to the 50%. 

I believe DIT had odds of 100/0/0 respectively. 

We shall do the standard ORH/DIT blend 99/1

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Vortmax is coming in pretty far west. Even compared to previous storms that got crunched for BOS like Dec 20-21, 2009 or Jan 2016. Often the models underestimate latent heat release to the east of them which is why ticks north on huge systems are somewhat common. They can be offset by huge blocks but a lot of the confluence on these past storms (with further east vort maxes) was significantly more than the current threat we’re seeing. 

So add it up and I’d favor more bumps north than the other way around. Most of the spread on ensembles is to the north too which is suggesting that there’s more room for small initialization errors being corrected to produce more northerly results. 

Forecasting a big probability game. It’s maybe something like 50% it trends north, 30% chance it roughly stays the same, and 20% it trends south. You can’t ignore the 20%. 1 out of 5 happens plenty of times. But you will pay more attention to the 50%. 

Thanks for the write-up. when you say the vortmax is pretty far west, i assume you mean on the models and not as observed right? 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I believe DIT had odds of 100/0/0 respectively. 

We weight ORH /DIT blend 99/1

You are generous

[BombsAway1288]

38 minutes ago, Greg said:

A little Surprised their starting to do that when models can change over night. Not to mention the GFS knowing its drier bias.

None of the ones I saw have an actual map with accumulations yet. Just probability/percentage chance maps for a plowable snow.

Forecast accumulation maps will start to come out tomorrow afternoon for the local stations I believe.

[Greg]

16 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

That post as in the initial one saying setup is similar

My mistake. It's all good.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Thanks for the write-up. when you say the vortmax is pretty far west, i assume you mean on the models and not as observed right? 

Correct. It’s not actually in position in the middle of the country yet. It is still offshore. A chunk of it comes onshore tonight and then most of the rest will be on shore by 12z run tomorrow. 

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Last winter was my first in RI, and it was a big disappointment. We had one decent storm in early December (10"), but the rest of the season was completely forgettable, and afterwards the only thing I really enjoyed was my ski trips to NNE, which did get some good storms.

I'm much more hopeful for this winter.

Nice to see more Rhode Islander’s on the forum. We can all ensure the pain of the snow hole together. LOL...

[Baroclinic Zone]

32 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Do people have reasons to think the storm will tick north or is it just hopefulness? Like what are the synoptic features that would suggest this might come north?

Latent heat release from storms originating from the south typically will have a northward correction as date draws closer.  Normally once we’re within 2-3 days.

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro looks a hair NW of 12z 

[Baroclinic Zone]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Vortmax is coming in pretty far west. Even compared to previous storms that got crunched for BOS like Dec 20-21, 2009 or Jan 2016. Often the models underestimate latent heat release to the east of them which is why ticks north on huge systems are somewhat common. They can be offset by huge blocks but a lot of the confluence on these past storms (with further east vort maxes) was significantly more than the current threat we’re seeing. 

So add it up and I’d favor more bumps north than the other way around. Most of the spread on ensembles is to the north too which is suggesting that there’s more room for small initialization errors being corrected to produce more northerly results. 

Forecasting a big probability game. It’s maybe something like 50% it trends north, 30% chance it roughly stays the same, and 20% it trends south. You can’t ignore the 20%. 1 out of 5 happens plenty of times. But you will pay more attention to the 50%. 

Should have read rest of thread before posting.  Lol.  Nicely put.

[ORH_wxman]

Runnaway doing naked snow angels at 84-90h. That’s destruction out in W CT 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Need some model sensitivity data as well from @OceanStWx

[Greg]

I actually do have a weather question. Can the confluence to the north be equally as strong with a retreating High Pressure system just like an approaching High Pressure system? Just curious, I may be actually have an idea what the answer is but not 100% sure.

[ORH_wxman]

This is a perfect H5 setup for all of SNE pretty much. 

[TheSnowman]

6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Nice to see more Rhode Islander’s on the forum. We can all ensure the pain of the snow hole together. LOL...

Yup.  We’ve been screwed since the 2013 Fujiwawa, outside of my Jackpot in 2018.  

[CoastalWx]

Looked like hr 90 had a great band signal near the pike.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Nice to see more Rhode Islander’s on the forum. We can all ensure the pain of the snow hole together. LOL...

Fozz is a Mid Atlantic transplant and good peeps.  Agree it’s nice to have more RI representation.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

Yup.  We’ve been screwed since the 2013 Fujiwawa, outside of my Jackpot in 2018.  

Any you, how’s the sledding hill these days?  Still have it?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looked like hr 90 had a great band signal near the pike.

We needed to see 96h for the qpf Queens. Lol. That was stronger than 12z there aloft. 

Prob gets pretty good snows over border into NH/S VT that run. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Runnaway doing naked snow angels at 84-90h. That’s destruction out in W CT 

Socks and shirt off. Pants half off. Waiting for the final signal to remove it all. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We needed to see 96h for the qpf Queens. Lol. That was stronger than 12z there aloft. 

Prob gets pretty good snows over border into NH/S VT that run. 

LoL I was waiting for the dam panel to advanced and forgot it stopped at hr 90. I’m definitely glad it did not move south.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Deform goodies up to hippie on east?

[Henry's Weather]

Can't wait to see this EPS

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is a perfect H5 setup for all of SNE pretty much. 

Gawd, that’s a thing of beauty

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deform goodies up to hippie on east?

Yeah he gets in on it this run. Northern edge of the heavy stuff anyway.