JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It sucks to not be able to rely on the GFS. I really do hope the upgrade is better in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Climo at this time of year favors a baroclinic zone closer to the coast. It’s still early in the season. I’d have rain in my forecast there as well right now. If this thing bombs out and closes off south of here then maybe they can stay all frozen.c 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It's probably been posted, but damn if this is even half right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The rgem, however, is less amped than 12z and still pounds SNE. Way out in lala land for RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 ICON is flyingggggg doesn’t get into eastern SNE until very late Wednesday night and it’s outta here by noon Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Way out in lala land for RGEM. NAM as well. We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The rgem, however, is less amped than 12z and still pounds SNE. You ain’t kidding. That is in the NAM basket. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: ICON is flyingggggg doesn’t get into eastern SNE until very late Wednesday night and it’s outta here by noon Thursday What model isn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: ICON is flyingggggg doesn’t get into eastern SNE until very late Wednesday night and it’s outta here by noon Thursday It’s about a 24-30hour storm. We’d ok to late Thursday 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s about a 24-30hour storm. We’d ok to late Thursday It looks more like a 12 hour storm I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: It looks more like a 12 hour storm I think. yeah I don't see 24 hours on that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: It looks more like a 12 hour storm I think. Lol. Dude.. it snows for a minimum of 24 hours on every model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: What model isn't? Right. Doesn’t mean we can’t get big totals, but I’d point to that as a limiting factor of widespread 12+. Going to need to maximize rates and anyone who gets caught in between bands probably isn’t getting there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 You’re not getting hundreds of miles swath of 12-20+ with a 12 hour snowfall . Think about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s about a 24-30hour storm. We’d ok to late Thursday The ICON enters SW CT by 00Z Thursday and just about gone in Eastern MA by 18Z Thursday. That's an 18 Hour storm at best probably less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Right. Doesn’t mean we can’t get big totals, but I’d point to that as a limiting factor of widespread 12+. Going to need to maximize rates and anyone who gets caught in between bands probably isn’t getting there I don’t think it limits 12-15 but beyond that would be tough. Get into some banding and a foot can come down quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Greg said: The ICON enters SW CT by 00Z Thursday and just about gone in Eastern MA by 18Z Thursday. That's an 18 Hour storm at best. Right, and at a particular location it's 15 hours at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Dude.. it snows for a minimum of 24 hours on every model I don’t know why I’m taking the bait but I’ll bite. The icon, for example, has the snow moving forward you around 8-9pm Wednesday night and you’re done snowing by Thursday morning at 9-10am the latest.... it clears the cape by noon. Nobody is saying it won’t be a nice storm and someone won’t get a lot of snow, but those are the facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 We’re dissecting the fukking ICON. Get ahold of yourselves! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: We’re dissecti the fukking ICON. Get ahold of yourselves! The thirst is real 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Vort looks more potent and confluence lifting north a bit faster through 48h on 18z GFS. I’d be surprised if this doesn’t tick north but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: ICON is flyingggggg doesn’t get into eastern SNE until very late Wednesday night and it’s outta here by noon Thursday Most prolific snowstorms have about a 12 hour window of heavy snow....not sure what the issue is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: I don’t think it limits 12-15 but beyond that would be tough. Get into some banding and a foot can come down quickly. The clear signal on the model as a consensus is that there will be intense lift in the DG zone for a bit, and the SSTs are quite warm combined with 850mb temps near -10 to -12C, we are talking about a tremendous moisture feed from the northeast. The ocean enhancement cannot be ignored with this system. The models will begin to show this impact within 24 hours of the onset of the snow, which is 72 hours from 00z tonight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: We’re dissecting the fukking ICON. Get ahold of yourselves! This is what last winter and the pandemic has done to us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most prolific snowstorms have about a 12 hour window of heavy snow....not sure what the issue is. I agree Ray, as long as the lift is right in the DG zone at the time of strongest lift (-12 to -18C) zone for a good 12 hours, it does not matter how long the duration is of light snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, bristolri_wx said: This is what last winter and the pandemic has done to us! For me the last two plus winters! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I agree Ray, as long as the lift is right in the DG zone at the time of strongest lift (-12 to -18C) zone for a good 12 hours, it does not matter how long the duration is of light snow! 1-2"/hr for 12 hours....grab the calculator... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 29 minutes ago, Greg said: Make sure you read the Weather Report posted by Henry's Weather and the Weather Service Boston. Even they indicate a taint potential for the Cape and Islands can happen in certain tracks closer to the coast but still be off shore. I have on multiple occasions seen early indication 3-4 days out of blockbuster snow on the coast and cape, then as we get down to 2 days out it turns out a mix of rain and snow along 95. A Valentine’s Day 2007 storm was an infuriating example of this. All my roommates cared about was the price of the new PlayStation 3. We ended up with a thin veneer of crusty ice with that air pocket under it.... IE quasi freezing rain. Another was an early 2002 storm that promised 2-4 inches of snow on south coast. It never changed over to snow. Granted, I feel like there must have been some improvements to forecasting since 2007? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Vort looks more potent and confluence lifting north a bit faster through 48h on 18z GFS. I’d be surprised if this doesn’t tick north but we’ll see. What I see is the gfs is further south with the s/w then other modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The RGEM is an absolute crusher wowzers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now