dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Chasing convection like a bad poker player chasing gut shot straight draws? Expand 996-1003mb slp's are not going to get this to far north running into the block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Eric Fisher on Twitter At face value, it's a good setup for heavy snow late Wednesday. So what could go wrong? My main concern is the northern extent of that heavy snow. Will be watching the trends and should be more clear by tomorrow AM No need to rush still days away The storm that heads off to our south tomorrow becomes a beast in the North Atlantic. Will be an important part of the follow-up storm that's our main snow chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:04 PM, dryslot said: 996-1003mb slp's are not going to get this to far north running into the block. Expand Yeah, it's like a miller B but 500 miles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The airmass and associated surface HP over NNE is a rock. That’s why the SLP gets shunted East despite sharper UL trough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:05 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: Eric Fisher on Twitter At face value, it's a good setup for heavy snow late Wednesday. So what could go wrong? My main concern is the northern extent of that heavy snow. Will be watching the trends and should be more clear by tomorrow AM No need to rush still days away The storm that heads off to our south tomorrow becomes a beast in the North Atlantic. Will be an important part of the follow-up storm that's our main snow chance Expand Yep, small nuances mean a lot in practical weather for the size storm that is forecast to become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Looks like the trough and shortwave come onshore this afternoon (??). So reserving all concerns until tonight's runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Hmm...maybe some in SNE get more tomorrow night than the midweek deal? 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:01 PM, JC-CT said: To be fair...we dont know if the NAM would have done the same Expand Good point. As some were saying a few days ago, Sunday night is when things become more clear for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 3:34 PM, PowderBeard said: Which run will the GFS cave to the EURO on.... Expand You sure it won't be the other way around? This is the third run in the row that the GFS has done this, so it's not like last night when you could maybe dismiss it as a fluke run. Not to mention we do have a monstrous 50/50 low and strong Canadian high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 SLP strength trends ..do they matter is weaker generally more offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I’m not worried yet.... we’ll see... the icon cut off pretty sharply north of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:01 PM, JC-CT said: To be fair...we dont know if the NAM would have done the same Expand NAM upper air was significantly more amplified at the same hour so I doubt it would have moved the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:10 PM, Fozz said: You sure it won't be the other way around? This is the third run in the row that the GFS has done this. Expand We have had snow storms where the GFS does this 8 runs in a row, and hasn’t come around until it’s already snowing LOL. Of course this could be the solution but it’s in the minority of guidance at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:13 PM, ORH_wxman said: NAM upper air was significantly more amplified at the same hour so I doubt it would have moved the same. Expand Yeah and the precip shield was much further north, not as much confluence...I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:14 PM, WxWatcher007 said: It's the third run in a row and virtually nothing else has followed it. It's possible to be consistently wrong. I'll perk up when everything else slides its way. We'll do the same thing we did at 00z. Expand Just the GFS and its ensembles. We'll see if the GGEM, UKMET or Euro catch on to this. Hopefully not, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I hate to even mention it but the 12z CMC looked like a big hit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gfs run to run consistency on snow axis is pretty good, at least it’s consistent. Almost nothing north of Boston... to low end warning SE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:15 PM, dryslot said: I hate to even mention it but the 12z CMC looked like a big hit. Expand Very cold also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 There's a ton of spread on the GEFS so still a pretty uncertain forecast with respect to SNE impacts I think. Would like to see a couple jumps on the GEFS to the north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:16 PM, MJO812 said: Expand Where does it go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 We whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:17 PM, JC-CT said: Where does it go from there Expand To a place that no one likes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:18 PM, dryslot said: To a place that no one likes. Expand Springfield? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:15 PM, dryslot said: I hate to even mention it but the 12z CMC looked like a big hit. Expand What’s up with this giant blob of convection well S.Eand almost a dual low structure . Is that associated with that trailing S steam energy that goes thru Florida and causes This to shift East on some models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:13 PM, ORH_wxman said: NAM upper air was significantly more amplified at the same hour so I doubt it would have moved the same. Expand Yeah I think the problem this run was a weaker s/w. It never gets latitude and then just triple points eastward. To have a prayer up here it needs to be zonked and curling toward LI before the redevelopment more E-ENE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:16 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs run to run consistency on snow axis is pretty good, at least it’s consistent. Almost nothing north of Boston... to low end warning SE areas Expand The GFS has come a long way. Although I believe it’s too far SE and it’s not grasping upper or mid dynamics and hence QPF it was always reasonably close to other global guidance from 5-6-7 days out. As recently as 5 years ago that never would have happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:17 PM, JC-CT said: Where does it go from there Expand NYC images in the New England forum as usual. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 4:17 PM, JC-CT said: Where does it go from there Expand 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I'd toss the GFS... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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