RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well in parts, sure. That big swath of 20-30"....no. The 20-30” amounts are overdone anyway, regardless of location. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: Seriously. It’s every snowman for himself in the jungle lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ve noticed all the Ukie runs have that powerful high poking down even more so than the other modeling does...or is it just me? Correct. Always a concern but Ukie is an outlier for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GEFS pretty potent for Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The 20-30” amounts are overdone anyway, regardless of location. Not necessarily in the mid level banding. You seem to be implying that I am only asserting this because it benefits my BY, which is fine. I don't forecast that way, but I guess December was a lucky guess, while most of the consensus, including you, had visions of Santa in a swim suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GEFS do look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The paraplegic GFS has consistently looked like the most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Fairly tight cluser: It does deviate from there though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 11 hours ago, raindancewx said: For the 28 years I consider La Ninas since 1930-31, Philadelphia has never had more than 12.8 inches of snow in December. Doesn't mean it's impossible, but any models showing that much or more are likely too high. I can see on Weather.com they have 5-8" during the day and then 5-8" during the night on 12/16. I would bet pretty strongly on a different evolution of the storm for the Northeast, just from knowing those stats in Philadelphia. One possible kink in the storm evolution would be the system out here that gets to the NE around 12/14, it's probably going to look somewhat different than depicted once it exits New Mexico. It seems to be trending south and stronger with time. For Boston, NYC, and Philly, the highest snow totals for 12/12-12/31 from 1931-2019 are: Boston: 25.4" (2007) New York City: 29.6" (1947) Philadelphia: 24.1" (2009) Cautionary noted: one needs to consider climate change unfortunately... The ambient Terran troposphere holds more water vapor at a given temperature than it did in 1930-1931. Even at decimals ..this has a tendency to "synergistically" result in higher individual deposition extremes...but also, maintenance precipitation events are also routinely delivery more in recent modernity. This is/was both modeled by climate prognostic efforts, and is also empirical/verifying. Having said that, that doesn't/won't/shouldn't be accountable in a particular anomaly at PHL, no .. .there could certainlyresult 13" of snow in a La Nina ... regardless of era. But, the likeliness of it happening now given sufficient cold at/while other analog values, is greater due to increasing ambient moisture in situ to atmospheric events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Be careful, some of our "friends" to the north would gladly see us all rain so that they can cash in. Gotta be vigilant around here. Snow is serious bidness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I hope we see a few nw bumps soon 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fairly tight cluser: It does deviate from there though: Some just wanna hang out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: Big time hit Come to Butthead. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Might be beneficial for weenies like myself to focus on the Monday threat which seems to be increasing based on GEFS, and then worry about Wednesday-Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Focus on both. It’s fun but it’s not life and death. .... ok it is.. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Some just wanna hang out If they wanna just hang out just SE of Montauk... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I feel like I will lose less sleep over the big threat if I focus on the small threat until it's passed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fairly tight cluser: It does deviate from there though: The progression Difference looks to be the extent of stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not necessarily in the mid level banding. You seem to be implying that I am only asserting this because it benefits my BY, which is fine. I don't forecast that way, but I guess December was a lucky guess, while most of the consensus, including you, had visions of Santa in a swim suite. Lol. That’s not what I was implying but you have a tendency to not believe early transfers or early occlusions. In a non blocked flow, I’m in your camp all day. In this setup, however, occluding off the NJ coast and crushing the interior mid atl is plausible...in addition to still giving EMA a great event. That’s all. Not sure what Dec or winter forecasting has anything to do with this, though, but yes we know your pre season calls are doing very well so far. I’ll have Santa sit on your lap in his long john’s on Christmas morning so you can read him your winter outlook in praise... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: The progression Difference looks to be the extent of stall. Good point. That looks to be difference between a huge event or a great event. Pretty tight goalposts this far out, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Cautionary noted: one needs to consider climate change unfortunately... The ambient Terran troposphere holds more water vapor at a given temperature than it did in 1930-1931. Even at decimals ..this has a tendency to "synergistically" result in higher individual deposition extremes...but also, maintenance precipitation events are also routinely delivery more in recent modernity. This is/was both modeled by climate prognostic efforts, and is also empirical/verifying. Having said that, that doesn't/won't/shouldn't be accountable in a particular anomaly at PHL, no .. .there could certainlyresult 13" of snow in a La Nina ... regardless of era. But, the likeliness of it happening now given sufficient cold at/while other analog values, is greater due to increasing ambient moisture in situ to atmospheric events. There's a first time for everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 45 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Best. Storm. Evah. (I had 32” in Cambridge with car size drifts) Agreed. This pic is like two weeks after that just up the street from CBC. 30"+ in the blizzard, another 2 feet + in that ridiculous long lasting system, Valentine's Day ML massacre, some other smaller events sprinkled in. Special. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Agreed. This pic is like two weeks after that just up the street from CBC. 30"+ in the blizzard, another 2 feet + in that ridiculous long lasting system, Valentine's Day ML massacre, some other smaller events sprinkled in. Special. About 20” where I am from that (Juno). I was living in TX at the time and missed it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Pulling for James here, he needs a biggie. In no way is that a self serving comment. Nope, not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: Agreed. This pic is like two weeks after that just up the street from CBC. 30"+ in the blizzard, another 2 feet + in that ridiculous long lasting system, Valentine's Day ML massacre, some other smaller events sprinkled in. Special. Epic! I saw some great storms during my Cambridge years. Did you live in that neighborhood? One of my favorite winter activities was walking to Cambridge Brewing Company during big snow storms. That place never closed for weather. You could sip a beer at the bar and watch the snow fly sideways through those big glass windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Pulling for James here, he needs a biggie. In no way is that a self serving comment. Nope, not at all. Yea I hope my wife wins Powerball tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, PowderBeard said: Yea I hope my wife wins Powerball tonight. I hope she doesn’t leave if she wins. (that’s what I tell mine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I hope she doesn’t leave if she wins. (that’s what I tell mine). I don't remember signing a prenup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I hope she doesn’t leave if she wins. (that’s what I tell mine). Who cares.... you’ll get half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Who cares.... you’ll get half Not in MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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