The 4 Seasons Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hey Addict, you must have done pretty well down that way in the ‘16 blizzard that hit NYC on south well. I remember southern and SW area of CT doing quite well(over a foot). Up this way I was like the cut off. I received 8-10” from the ‘16 monster, but couldn’t quite get into the real big stuff. And just north of here it dropped like a rock. not sure about the rough comment, weve gotten several 12+ events since then. No monsters but a foot + is nothing to sneeze at. Many times, Feb 15, Jan 16, Feb 16, Feb 17, Jan 18, Mar 18, Mar 19 all had double digits amount in new haven county. Im out for a while, GL to all on the 12z models, ill b back on later tonight. This is OUR storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Fozz said: The GFS is now showing 18” here in RI. I’m very used to telling myself that it’s just a model, and isn’t realistic to expect. Is this really happening?? Not yet it’s not...but Xmas is coming so maybe Santa brings you an early gift? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hey Addict, you must have done pretty well down that way in the ‘16 blizzard that hit NYC on south well. I remember southern and SW area of CT doing quite well(over a foot). Up this way I was like the cut off. I received 8-10” from the ‘16 monster, but couldn’t quite get into the real big stuff. And just north of here it dropped like a rock. I think I measured 10.5 from that one in Milford. 2016 feels like ages ago after these past few years lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Fozz said: The GFS is now showing 18” here in RI. I’m very used to telling myself that it’s just a model, and isn’t realistic to expect. Is this really happening?? High likelihood of snow. Low likelihood of 18”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Is miller C a thing? I've heard the term jockeyed around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 6-8” of arctic sand for you while Ray whines that he may only get 17” instead of 20” as he misses a mesoband by 2 miles. You know the drill. Pretty much. It’s going to take a lot of Kraft tugs to get this one enough north for a big hit so I may need to cheer on the Cam pick 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just don't sink South by over 75 miles . I can drive to S Areas just give me that massive fronto band on N side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: The GFS is now showing 18” here in RI. I’m very used to telling myself that it’s just a model, and isn’t realistic to expect. Is this really happening?? That area over to Foster/Glocester usually does pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: not sure about the rough comment, weve gotten several 12+ events since then. No monsters but a foot + is nothing to sneeze at. Many times, Feb 15, Jan 16, Feb 16, Feb 17, Jan 18, Mar 18, Mar 19 all had double digits amount in new haven county. Im out for a while, GL to all on the 12z models, ill b back on later tonight. This is OUR storm. I was just asking about Jan ‘16? And he’s down in the SW corner isn’t he? But maybe I’m wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Is miller C a thing? I've heard the term jockeyed around Kinda, sorta, not really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Is miller C a thing? I've heard the term jockeyed around Some used to refer to storms that start way out to sea and retrograde back in as Miller Cs...I’m not sure if that was just slang or it was actually in the literature somewhere like Miller A and B. I know it wasn’t in the original Miller 1946 paper though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Kinda, sorta, not really. So just code for an early miller B redeveloper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: not sure about the rough comment, weve gotten several 12+ events since then. No monsters but a foot + is nothing to sneeze at. Many times, Feb 15, Jan 16, Feb 16, Feb 17, Jan 18, Mar 18, Mar 19 all had double digits amount in new haven county. Im out for a while, GL to all on the 12z models, ill b back on later tonight. This is OUR storm. Hmmm my memory isnt anywhere near some others here when it comes to storms, but I think mar 2018 was decent. Like 7-8 inches? I do recall another storm where just inland, like Easton ridgefield etc. had a crushing heavy wet snow that knocked out power for days while right here on the coast we only got 5-6 gloppy inches. Regardless hopefully this finds a way to get everyone, even those folks down in DC. A classic DC-BOS I95 crusher is always fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Icon is pretty robust for Monday.... temps are iffy though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: As long as you can grab gummies with two fingers, all is well. I think it’s happenned more than twice though, no? regardless I’m thinking nyc to pwm anyway, we couldn’t care less about dc snow. I’m sure it was more then twice but not very often, I would have to look back for NYC to here, low track would be East if NYC is snowing so we probably miss more here then not, Usually a strong block and strong HP over QUE doesn’t bode well so I would be in favor of something weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: You must have a busy schedule trying to help build hype and maintain the good vibes in two separate subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I was just asking about Jan ‘16? And he’s down in the SW corner isn’t he? But maybe I’m wrong? Milford ct since 2016. Fairfield prior to that, except Hamden for a few years (college) . Was in Hamden for 2010-2011, probably my favorite winter of all time. Anyways back on topic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon is pretty robust for Monday.... temps are iffy though Icon thermals are terrible. I mean the model doesn’t even show mixing. But it does look much better for Wednesday, perhaps it is finally realizing the cad signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pretty much. It’s going to take a lot of Kraft tugs to get this one enough north for a big hit so I may need to cheer on the Cam pick 6. Lotta time left for tics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Icon thermals are terrible. I mean the model doesn’t even show mixing. But it does look much better for Wednesday, perhaps it is finally realizing the cad signature. Icon is a monster for Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon is a monster for Thursday Post it Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 ICON gone wild. Looks like a solid 8+ hours of 1-2" rates for most of mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 NSFW warnings should be applied to this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon is a monster for Thursday Whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Do we care about NAVGEM or is it just a weenie model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What is a "control"? What does that mean here? Well, it's tricky to explain effectively. Essentially we use ensembles because we don't understand the uncertainty of our chaotic atmosphere. Taking into account this uncertainty, the model runs several times with slightly perturbed conditions in order to create the individual members in order to best account for all possibilities. That's how we get the ensemble mean. The ensemble control forecast is the ensemble member run from the unperturbed, coarse-resolution initial conditions. Essentially the control run is useless in conclusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: NSFW warnings should be applied to this what is the trend since their last run? will be interesting to see if any trends develop this afternoon, given a pretty consistent look across models so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Do we care about NAVGEM or is it just a weenie model? No. It use to have a noticeable SE bias, so for example if it was SE of the benchmark that probably meant that the storm was going to track on the benchmark. But I thought someone mentioned that it does even have that bias anymore? It’s just a bad model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: what is the trend since their last run? will be interesting to see if any trends develop this afternoon, given a pretty consistent look across models so far. ICON has "inched" it south over the past 3 runs. From taking the low over RI and Boston to 100 miles south of the Cape/islands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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