JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 1:58 PM, It's Always Sunny said: Is it just me or is the Dec 16/17 storm beginning to look more Miller A-esque? Almost a Miller A/B hybrid kind of. Expand A hybrid can work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 1:58 PM, It's Always Sunny said: Is it just me or is the Dec 16/17 storm beginning to look more Miller A-esque? Almost a Miller A/B hybrid kind of. Expand Definitely more A, baby comes right on up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 1:04 PM, tamarack said: Plenty of changes from now to then, but at present my old NNJ haunts get 18" while we get a dusting here and the snow-loving grandkids (who only saw white ground last winter when they visited us for Thanksgiving) get a couple inches of slop and RA+. Expand Shaping up to be pure torture. GYX posted yesterday that there have only been 2 Christmases since 2002 with more than a dusting on the ground at PWM, and that trend seems likely to continue. Anyway, enjoy it SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:01 PM, Ericjcrash said: Definitely more A, baby comes right on up the coast Expand Think we need some B in that if it’s not going to shoot its load SW of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:01 PM, SnowEMass said: A hybrid can work Expand On 12/12/2020 at 2:01 PM, Ericjcrash said: Definitely more A, baby comes right on up the coast Expand Yeah because if I recall a couple days ago it was looking more B like but now it appears to dip more into that Gulf moisture. Probably one of the reasons why QPF has gone up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 1:58 PM, It's Always Sunny said: Is it just me or is the Dec 16/17 storm beginning to look more Miller A-esque? Almost a Miller A/B hybrid kind of. Expand No it definitely looks more miller A than a couple days ago. That said, it could still go more hybrid f we get some NW ticks as it would result in a stronger primary trying to go into OH valley before the coastal becomes fully dominant. We’ll just have to wait and see. Some of the NW solutions are kind of like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The Monday storm has a strong 250-300 mb upper jet streak that moves northeastward up the East Coast, producing intense lift off the coast where the Low begins to intensify! This will aide in a quick 6-9 hour period of intense snow rates as the storm intensifies! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Think the potential is high for a foot plus on Thursday and at least a six inch maximum for Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:01 PM, PWMan said: Shaping up to be pure torture. GYX posted yesterday that there have only been 2 Christmases since 2002 with more than a dusting on the ground at PWM, and that trend seems likely to continue. Anyway, enjoy it SNE! Expand That stat can’t be right for snow depth. Do they mean snowfall on Christmas Day itself? (2012 and 2017?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 1:59 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Absolutely insane to see 12+ Probs in this area at this lead time greater than 50% Expand Yea. That’s intense. I’ll take the 90% prob of greater than 6” to start too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:09 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Think the potential is high for a foot plus on Thursday and at least a six inch maximum for Monday! Expand Eps prob have you around 5% for 12+ so keep expectations in check my man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:14 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Eps prob have you around 5% for 12+ so keep expectations in check my man. Expand That is one piece of guidance my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: That stat can’t be right for snow depth. Do they mean snowfall on Christmas Day itself? (2012 and 2017?) Expand Had to be snowfall on Christmas Day ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:15 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: That is one piece of guidance my friend Expand Mid Dec is still early for the ocean towns. If we take like a 70/30 eps/gefs blend you’re in good shape for warning snows. Hope you get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:20 PM, WxWatcher007 said: It’s a great pattern for it. I’m not ready to go big but I do think at this point I think 6” is a minimum for CT. We’d really have to screw this up to avoid a warning level event. Not saying close the shades, but it’s a pretty good piece of guidance brother. Expand Yeah Will, but they are not high resolution, not enough to rely on with the details! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:20 PM, WxWatcher007 said: It’s a great pattern for it. I’m not ready to go big but I do think at this point 6” is a minimum for CT. We’d really have to screw this up to avoid a warning level event. Not saying close the shades, but it’s a pretty good piece of guidance brother. Expand Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:21 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Mid Dec is still early for the ocean towns. If we take like a 70/30 eps/gefs blend you’re in good shape for warning snows. Hope you get buried. Expand Oh I do too, but then the caveat is, that if the warm oceans allow for a change to rain, they also allow for higher moisture content and release over the region. A higher moisture source if the air mass is arctic and deep enough to offset the surface warmth from the upper-40 F water temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12z NAM likes Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Maybe 1 to 3 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The block is a huge player. Otherwise it would be congrats Syracuse to Stowe. Still a little leary it could weaken as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:24 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I may have the good looks, but I don’t have the memory or meteorological expertise of Will Stark departure from the garbage of the last few years. Just hoping we can maximize this one. Expand I mean, obviously we need a strong arctic high in place over Maine or Quebec to keep the cold arctic air mass in place, locked in and thrown towards the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:27 PM, ineedsnow said: Maybe 1 to 3 for most Expand For what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:18 AM, MJO812 said: Control Expand Really? Posting the control of the ensembles? Good lord 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: That stat can’t be right for snow depth. Do they mean snowfall on Christmas Day itself? (2012 and 2017?) Expand Sorry - the post was ambiguously worded but I should’ve done my own fact-checking. Funny how memory works, as it seemed plausible based on my personal experience. I also realize that my area is still in the game for some action next week, even if we don’t jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:27 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: For what? Expand Monday. You probably rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:01 PM, PWMan said: Shaping up to be pure torture. GYX posted yesterday that there have only been 2 Christmases since 2002 with more than a dusting on the ground at PWM, and that trend seems likely to continue. Anyway, enjoy it SNE! Expand I think GYX should look again. I found four 12/25s with 6"+ (07, 08, 13, 17) and 4 others with 1-4", though that 4" year (2005) had zero by 12/26 as the Grinch stole it. I assume that PWM measures depth at noon, or why 2002 shows zero for 12/25 - the 16" dump started early PM. That also explains why the 12/25 storm (5") doesn't affect depth until the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:24 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I may have the good looks, but I don’t have the memory or meteorological expertise of Will Stark departure from the garbage of the last few years. Just hoping we can maximize this one. Expand I pray the panic room has “Business Interrupt ” insurance. Hopefully government funding will be provided to keep, Forky, S19 and other staff members employed during the “Its really gonna snow” crises. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:27 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The block is a huge player. Otherwise it would be congrats Syracuse to Stowe. Still a little leary it could weaken as we get closer. Expand The blocking is why confidence is high at D5. Still don’t wanna spike footballs yet but this is a lot different than hoping for thread the needle setups. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:27 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The block is a huge player. Otherwise it would be congrats Syracuse to Stowe. Still a little leary it could weaken as we get closer. Expand A lot of things could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 2:28 PM, DotRat_Wx said: Really? Posting the control of the ensembles? Good lord Expand Hey at least it’s fun to....look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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