Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[justinj]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Look I hope your correct but with ocean temperatures well into the 40s and a low near the coast or even slightly inland, how does Long Island get over a foot of snow. We need the low offshore with a Northeast wind, not an east wind which is what it will be if the GFS is correct. Hopefully the Euro stays more offshore and ends up being correct

Ocean temps are still low 50s lol

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, justinj said:

Ocean temps are still low 50s lol

Yup 51 at by me at breezy point still

[justinj]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Yup 51 at by me at breezy point still

53 shinnecock buoy 

[friedmators]

Slight improvement on the Euro but probably just noise this close. 

[Nibor]

[nycsnow]

Just now, friedmators said:

Slight improvement on the Euro but probably just noise this close. 

Good trends tonight for nyc area... seems like a foot is more reachable then it looked this am

[weatherlogix]

Euro snow maps have to be way off. Most of what falls on the South Shore is sleet and the snow map shows 15"

[nycsnow]

Just now, weatherlogix said:

Euro snow maps have to be way off. Most of what falls on the South Shore is sleet and the snow map shows 15"

There was a solid front dump wouldn’t be surprised if 8-10 was snow + there is backend 

[Snowlover11]

euro basically held the same as 12z.  onto nowcasting!

[Nibor]

[nycsnow]

Almost every model brought nyc area back to double digits tonight! Even with taking a few inches off for sleet

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Euro snow maps have to be way off. Most of what falls on the South Shore is sleet and the snow map shows 15"

It's sleet ? 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Almost every model brought nyc area back to double digits tonight! Even with taking a few inches off for sleet

Yep agree. Looks like a 6-10 inch storm if you subtract the sleet. Now if the sleet doesn't happen then the 12+ amounts will happen. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

euro basically held the same as 12z.  onto nowcasting!

Great runs

[MJO812]

GFS and Euro give NYC 15 inches 

 

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

I am going to be right. 

 

do us a favor and quit trolling especially over in the NE forum.  i wish weenietags  timeouts would  return! anywho back to the storm.  great small improvements tonight see you all tomorrow!

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

GFS and Euro give NYC 15 inches 

 

Don’t those Clown maps count sleet as snow? 

[HVSnowLover]

12 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Euro has been very consistent for the most part. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Don’t those Clown maps count sleet as snow? 

No sleet on the Euro

 

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro has been very consistent for the most part. 

[nycsnow]

Euro putting out impressive winds again as well. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Low resolution maps

Its all snow

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Euro putting out impressive winds again as well. 

Yep

TWC mentioned blizzard conditions  possible during the evening rush

[Snowlover11]

anyone have the latest discussion from upton?

[shadowsintherain]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Low resolution maps

Its all snow

How is it all snow? According to those maps I'm seeing tons and tons of sleet on the south shore, no?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

How is it all snow? According to those maps I'm seeing tons and tons of sleet on the south shore, no?

 

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

How is it all snow? According to those maps I'm seeing tons and tons of sleet on the south shore, no?

The free version put out by pivotal is "lower in resolution." Paid access will yield higher res maps. With that said there's still a threat for mixing on the south shore.

[shadowsintherain]

Yeah, not loving that 540 line above the city and island on both of those panes. Hmm... What a PITA this forecast must be for the pros. Good God! That being said. That's 2.0" liquid verbatim. Wow. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

Yeah, not loving that 540 line above the city and island on both of those panes. Hmm... What a PITA this forecast must be for the pros. Good God! That being said. That's 2.0" liquid verbatim. Wow. 

I'm wondering if the models have the warmth wrong if heavy precip falls

[shadowsintherain]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm wondering if the models have the warmth wrong if heavy precip falls

One can only hope. I would imagine if a wall of snow starts to fall, the entire column should cool. But, I am not nearly experienced enough to know if that is indeed the case. The southerly winds off the water will be significant. Let's hope to low goes even further east tomorrow!