Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Barman49 said:

I was more referring to it never really jumped far NW like most of the other models have.

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The GFS has slowly come around to an extent on the idea 02-07Z near NYC is dicey on ptype.   This run just about has rain at JFK for a brief period 

[friedmators]

Issued 30 minutes ago.

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Taint or not this would be absolutely glorious before the switch. 2-4"/hour snow across the area.

Taking that panel verbatim lower Manhattan, nothing. Across the Hudson 4 inch an hour rates. Big yikes lol

[Barman49]

That’s true if that’s your point. 

Yes that was my point. I wasn't talking about the exact precip distribution.

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[HVSnowLover]

Just now, Rjay said:

Meh.  It gives me like 18" lol 

It actually changes LI to rain on the precip type maps so im not sure how it’s spitting out those totals on LI

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

um.  look at snow maps, definitely less amounts in an area.

It seemed to flatten out after getting a bit north. Coastal NJ right below NYC got less, while Eastern LI got more. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

I was more referring to it never really jumped far NW like most of the other models have.

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Look at its run 24 hours ago and 00z tonight. Night and day. Plus for 5 days it got snow barely past NYC metro. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, ChickenMan888 said:

When can I expect the heavy stuff to start falling in the Yonkers area? I'll be out working tomorrow night on the road and I enjoy when it starts getting heavy out there

7pm 

[lee59]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm still amazed how a low that far inland can produce snow in NYC. Must be because of the strong high and the elongated low

I think if the low is where the GFS places it, the only hope for snow is a quick front end. A low over Delaware is going to give coastal areas a more east wind than Northeast, that means ocean air. Maybe some more snow as it pulls away.

[Barman49]

The GFS has slowly come around to an extent on the idea 02-07Z near NYC is dicey on ptype.   This run just about has rain at JFK for a brief period 

I noticed that. But again I wouldn't really rely on it for temp profiles especially when they will be right around that 30 degree mark around the city east.

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[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, ChickenMan888 said:

When can I expect the heavy stuff to start falling in the Yonkers area? I'll be out working tomorrow night on the road and I enjoy when it starts getting heavy out there

Probably around 7-8 pm ish 

[Barman49]

Look at its run 24 hours ago and 00z tonight. Night and day. Plus for 5 days it got snow barely past NYC metro. 

The low is slightly NW and the precip shield is farther north but it's also bigger which is why it's north.

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[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It actually changes LI to rain on the precip type maps so im not sure how it’s spitting out those totals on LI

Maybe this is the weenie version but fwiw (not much) it only rains on the barrier islands.   

 

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I think if the low is where the GFS places it, the only hope for snow is a quick front end. A low over Delaware is going to give coastal areas a more east wind than Northeast, that means ocean air. Maybe some more snow as it pulls away.

With the low SW of you yes, winds would be ENE. NAM forms a coastal front that brings Montauk up to the low 40s at 9z Wed. Same time NYC is maybe 26-27. It's had this the last couple of runs. Eastern Suffolk would likely be rain in whatever precip is falling then. 

[jdj5211]

we hit page 100!  I truly hope this storm is at least worth all of this chatter! (kidding obviously, it's always worth it!)

[wizard021]

WOWOWOWO

[wizard021]

arw2 and nmm both all snow 

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With the low SW of you yes, winds would be ENE. NAM forms a coastal front that brings Montauk up to the low 40s at 9z Wed. Same time NYC is maybe 26-27. It's had this the last couple of runs. Eastern Suffolk would likely be rain in whatever precip is falling then. 

If the low is SW of me and it is December with milder water temps., I'm very concerned. I hope the GFS is wrong.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, Barman49 said:

The low is slightly NW and the precip shield is farther north but it's also bigger which is why it's north.

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For 5 days it had the low 100 miles south of all other guidance and it's northern precip field was a joke. It's been a train wreck with this storm until it finally caved earlier today. 

[Barman49]

For 5 days it had the low 100 miles south of all other guidance and it's northern precip field was a joke. It's been a train wreck with this storm until it finally caved earlier today. 

Ok.

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[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Maybe this is the weenie version but fwiw (not much) it only rains on the barrier islands.   

 

 

We can guess as to what's more accurate but the NAM has a pronounced warm nose at 750mb by 6z Thu that the GFS doesn't have really at all. That's why it isn't showing much or any sleet. Winds keep a northerly enough component for most to keep it snow therefore for everyone except the twin forks maybe. Big time winds too, probably 50+ mph gusts. That would be blizzard conditions. Unfortunately especially with the mid level warming I believe the NAM more. 

[lee59]

6 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

We are getting slammed, looks like all snow in the city and Island. 12-18 a good bet right now, the warm tongue aloft is being overplayed.

Look I hope your correct but with ocean temperatures well into the 40s and a low near the coast or even slightly inland, how does Long Island get over a foot of snow. We need the low offshore with a Northeast wind, not an east wind which is what it will be if the GFS is correct. Hopefully the Euro stays more offshore and ends up being correct

[nycsnow]

Arw and NMM are wild but are they even reliable lol

[friedmators]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Arw and NMM are wild but are they even reliable lol

NO

[Sn0waddict]

CMC not surprisingly looks similar to the RGEM, they are the most NW of any the models at the moment.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, JoshSnow said:

And now everything is caving back to the GFS lol

 

put it this way every model has trended colder tonight including the GFS

Yeah ok. Every model picked up on what was happening with the storm for the most part well before the GFS. It caved after 5 days of embarrassing itself. 

[wizard021]

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

NO

Arw is the short term model for severe storms. Very reliable and I use it more than the hrrr.

[SnowGoose69]

The HDRDPS now doesn’t show sleet either.  Just flips area to light rain or dry slot at 06z 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, JoshSnow said:

Don’t worry I can’t steal your snow you’re in a great spot. I’m stealing Albany’s snow right now 

Huh? it's just a bad model and it performed miserably. Euro, CMC, Ukie, all outperformed it. Even Nam and RGEM who were out of their useful range had a better handle on things before GFS. 

[nesussxwx]

GFS has been a train wreck, had zilch in Albany yesterday, 2" in KPOU. Caved in pretty well to the consensus.