Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That RGEM map looks to have 5 for JFK and 13-14 for LGA.  That’s quite a gradient lol 

Its mostly snow on pivotal maps. Big thump before sleet and then back to snow. 

[jm1220]

NAM to me was somewhat better but a few things-

-Not sure if this is real or not but looks like part of the reason the surface low went SE is an area of convection that seemed to drag it east starting at 0z tomorrow through Thu AM. On the previous run that convective area was weaker. 

-The 700 low track didn't change much. Maybe it went south a little? Was hard to really tell but that hopefully improves. There is still warm air at around 750mb that gets into coastal/city areas before 6z, but by 6z the steady heavy precip is shutting off. 

-A chunk of the snow relies on this back end stuff that may be there or won't be. 

Seemed like the front end stuff was better which to me would be where much of the snow city and coast would come from. The dryslot would likely still make it into the city. So to me, another stepwise improvement but not a big shift. 

[HVSnowLover]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That RGEM map looks to have 5 for JFK and 13-14 for LGA.  That’s quite a gradient lol 

The precip type map has the rain/snow line over queens for several hours so makes sense verbatim but in actuality I dont know if it plays out that way 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Rgem 

NYC gets more snow for sure off the 0z run

0z run top

18z run bottom

Doesn't look that way to me. If anything on LI the 18z run was better. Looks like the southern end of the heavy snow tightened up a bit. And these are just snowmaps-impossible to tell what's legit without soundings. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NAM to me was somewhat better but a few things-

-Not sure if this is real or not but looks like part of the reason the surface low went SE is an area of convection that seemed to drag it east starting at 0z tomorrow through Thu AM. On the previous run that convective area was weaker. 

-The 700 low track didn't change much. Maybe it went south a little? Was hard to really tell but that hopefully improves. There is still warm air at around 750mb that gets into coastal/city areas before 6z, but by 6z the steady heavy precip is shutting off. 

-A chunk of the snow relies on this back end stuff that may be there or won't be. 

Seemed like the front end stuff was better which to me would be where much of the snow city and coast would come from. The dryslot would likely still make it into the city. So to me, another stepwise improvement but not a big shift. 

The NAM BUFKIT soundings which is the 12K show about 12 at LGA and 13 at JFK but there’s no question the QPF could be overdone and also 2 or 3 of the hours show snow but are isothermal 0 and will likely verify 1-2C warmer so to me the ceiling is still 9-10 at LGA and 7-9 at JFK 

[F5TornadoF5]

Icon, fwiw

[Sn0waddict]

I’m sure it’s a terrible model but the 0z WRF-NMM is what this board should be rooting for.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM bucket soundings which is the 12K show about 12 at LGA and 13 at JFK but there’s no question the QPF could be overdone and also 2 or 3 of the hours show snow but are isothermal 0 and will likely verify 1-2C warmer so to me the ceiling is still 9-10 at LGA and 7-9! at JFK 

The one real improvement to me seemed to be a stronger front end hit which would hopefully help delay the warm air and obviously drop more snow precip. Anything on the back end could be real could be a pipe dream, and wouldn't be shocking if a chunk of that is non-snow. 

My 6-7" call for my immediate area stands for now unless there's more improvement. I can see how I somehow make it to 10" if it's like a 2/13/14 wall of intense snow or if we have the miracle weenie band at the end. Immediate south shore 3-5", Central Park maybe 7-8", White Plains 10-14", northwest of there 14-18" especially around I-84. North of there could be the 18"+ amounts in the deformation/high ratio snow. 

[WeatherFox]

18Z GFS MOS: Solid snowstorm for KNYC-New York City.  Good luck, y'all.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The one real improvement to me seemed to be a stronger front end hit which would hopefully help delay the warm air and obviously drop more snow precip. Anything on the back end could be real could be a pipe dream, and wouldn't be shocking if a chunk of that is non-snow. 

My 6-7" call for my immediate area stands for now unless there's more improvement. I can see how I somehow make it to 10" if it's like a 2/13/14 wall of intense snow or if we have the miracle weenie band at the end. Immediate south shore 3-5", Central Park maybe 7-8", White Plains 10-14", northwest of there 14-18" especially around I-84. North of there could be the 18"+ amounts in the deformation/high ratio snow. 

The dry nose from 5-10K is pretty significant.  I could see that causing the first couple of hours to be slow to get going.  

[F5TornadoF5]

GFS looks similar to 18z, maybe touch cooler on back end.

[Barman49]

Say what you will about it,right or wrong, but the GFS has been about as consistent as it can get with this.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Barman49 said:

Say what you will about it,right or wrong, but the GFS has been about as consistent as it can get with this.

No it hasn’t, it’s trended pretty far nw from where it was a day ago

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said:

GFS looks similar to 18z, maybe touch cooler on back end.

The models like the GFS that have a low pressure over Delaware is not where you want it if you live on Long Island. It would seem to me that would bring in a more easterly wind and onshore ocean air.

[Snowlover11]

gfs a brings a dryslot over ne nj/nyc.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

gfs a brings a dryslot over ne nj/nyc.

Still get 15 inches lol

[White Gorilla]

18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

No it hasn’t, it’s trended nw. 

Yeah, I thought it caved yesterday night 

[F5TornadoF5]

Just now, lee59 said:

The models like the GFS that have a low pressure over Delaware is not where you want it if you live on Long Island. It would seem to me that would bring in a more easterly wind and onshore ocean air.

Yeah I agree, 18z had that as well. Looks like it is further south a tad on later panels.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, Barman49 said:

Say what you will about it,right or wrong, but the GFS has been about as consistent as it can get with this.

You're kidding right? It's been atrocious. 24 hours ago it was giving me 3 inches. It caved to other guidance today and is now on planet earth with the rest of the models. Latest output is now 19 for me. 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

I’m sure it’s a terrible model but the 0z WRF-NMM is what this board should be rooting for.

Yeah that's probably the best case scenario here.

[MJO812]

I'm still amazed how a low that far inland can produce snow in NYC. Must be because of the strong high and the elongated low

[weatherlogix]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The dry nose from 5-10K is pretty significant.  I could see that causing the first couple of hours to be slow to get going.  

Storms like that don't usually flip to rain do they?

[nycsnow]

Another tick at 6z nyc LI nnj are back in the heavy duty amounts 

[jm1220]

GFS looks similar to me. Again it has this blowup area of heavy precip over LI and NYC that result in the crazy snow amounts. 700 low looks to track ENE from around Reading PA to over NYC/Long Island, a little SE of the NAM's placement. 

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

No it doesn’t. 

um.  look at snow maps, definitely less amounts in an area.

[friedmators]

Taint or not this would be absolutely glorious before the switch. 2-4"/hour snow across the area.

[Barman49]

You're kidding right? It's been atrocious. 24 hours ago it was giving me 3 inches. It caved to other guidance today and is now on planet earth with the rest of the models. Latest output is now 19 for me. 

I was more referring to it never really jumped far NW like most of the other models have.

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[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

You're kidding right? It's been atrocious. 24 hours ago it was giving me 3 inches. It caved to other guidance today and is now on planet earth with the rest of the models. Latest output is now 19 for me. 

Meh.  It gives me like 18" lol 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Barman49 said:

I was more referring to it never really jumped far NW like most of the other models have.

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That’s true if that’s your point.