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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Upton's point and click-lol. Maybe an inch at Captree-a 30 minute drive from me and about 15 miles away. Here, "most likely" snow is at 11" and point/click has 8-14". Long Beach "most likely" is 3" and JFK 10 miles away 11". Wonder why NW Suffolk wasn't included in the warning then? 

My guess for my backyard is still 6-7" of snow and gunk. Hopefully I'm being conservative. I can see it being a few inches if these awful NAM runs are right, or if it's a miracle like this Euro run seems to be, could be 12". 

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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Poker2015

Poker2015

Posted
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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could change back to snow Thursday morning if that 3KM H500 bowling ball verifies. 
 

E74D0594-4684-4352-B47A-8314D7FA3C08.thumb.png.a9c8e6ae8d46b5748e04984a5b6987e2.png

I'm trying to learn more about maps like this...where do you want to be in that for the best snow? In the deep red or just northwest like I saw on something similar that someone mentioned?

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It probably would change back to snow Thursday morning if that 3KM H500 bowling ball verifies. But the exact location of snow on the back end will have to wait for later runs. Like you said, the front end thump snows look more impressive right now.
 

E74D0594-4684-4352-B47A-8314D7FA3C08.thumb.png.a9c8e6ae8d46b5748e04984a5b6987e2.png

The Euro had been most south with that part of the storm but the 18Z run definitely ticked north with it 

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bluewave

bluewave

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9 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

I'm trying to learn more about maps like this...where do you want to be in that for the best snow? In the deep red or just northwest like I saw on something similar that someone mentioned?

This generally looks like a 3 part storm. Front end thump snow burst followed by WAA aloft and mixing near the coast . Part 3 is always most uncertain since snow bands with ULs aren’t forecast very well too far in advance. You want the low to close off in the right spot so you get under the snow bands. But it takes work to prime the atmosphere for more snow following WAA aloft. That’s  why there aren’t many examples of impressive back end snows following mixing.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There aren’t many examples of Miller B cold winter storms tracking over Southern NJ in December. The only one that comes to mind during another winter month Valentine’s Day in 2007. But that had features that were different from this one. We usually see Miller B primaries weaken to our west before a new center pops SE of ACY.

This is partly why I wonder if the models aren’t handing the mid level lows correctly.  I’ve been bothered all along by the fact there is such disjointed nature between the surface and mid level lows with this.  If that ends up happening the GFS will end up correct for the wrong reason 

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jm1220

jm1220

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is partly why I wonder if the models aren’t handing the mid level lows correctly.  I’ve been bothered all along by the fact there is such disjointed nature between the surface and mid level lows with this.  If that ends up happening the GFS will end up correct for the wrong reason 

Seems like they have a hard time placing the surface low too. As it gets up here, models seem to have the surface low from Baltimore to off Ocean City. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Seems like they have a hard time placing the surface low too. As it gets up here, models seem to have the surface low from Baltimore to off Ocean City. 

Yeah something is just off.  The whole transition occurs far enough south you’d think this thing would be more or less “stacked” or at least relatively close to aligned.  But the 700 is displaced by a big margin IMO compared to what would normally be seen.  The whole forecast is toast if that doesn’t transpire for many who cut down below 10 inches 

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bluewave

bluewave

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is partly why I wonder if the models aren’t handing the mid level lows correctly.  I’ve been bothered all along by the fact there is such disjointed nature between the surface and mid level lows with this.  If that ends up happening the GFS will end up correct for the wrong reason 

The whole pattern is mismatched. Record early month +PNA spike for moderate La Niña. Sudden appearance of blocking over the North Pole in the short term. +AAM and record warm +PMM NP SSTs with a moderate La Niña. Record Arctic warmth and low sea ice. So this storm looks like a microcosm of all the competing influences. The old analogs just don’t work for this new climate.

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jm1220

jm1220

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1 minute ago, lee59 said:

The forecast for south shore beaches in Nassau County is about 2-3 inches of snow. The forecast for the north shore of Nassau County is about 12 inches.

I noticed that and LOLed. Upton deserves big props if something like that happens but more likely the difference will be a few inches not 9-10. 

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Cerinthe Major

Cerinthe Major

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1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

Lived there from 2010 to 2013.  I can recall seeing snow three times the entire time and the highest total was 2 inches. Watching January 2011’s extravaganza from down there was sheer torture.

We really have been spoiled up here the past decade.  I’ll gladly take 6-10” here in the city. I’d welcome the icy glacier that’ll preserve the pack too!

I lived in the area for 15 years. 2009-2010 was an amazing year, and got me into weather! 2016 was gorgeous too. But in general, it’s heartbreaking place for a snowlover to live. The rain-snow line will kill you always. I lurked on their subforum for years, and it was even more depressed than here.

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Rjay

Rjay

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

IDK, maybe? This doesn't seem like that kind of storm though. I think the early March 2018 storms had big differences but that was mainly due to marginal surface temps not situations where we might have sleet or the dryslot. 

Feb 2014. 5 for you. 11/12 for me.  Barrier island to Southern State.

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

IDK, maybe? This doesn't seem like that kind of storm though. I think the early March 2018 storms had big differences but that was mainly due to marginal surface temps not situations where we might have sleet or the dryslot. 

Surface temps may be a big difference too it’s still early so I could see places right along the Atlantic warming into the mid 30s or so. If it’s heavy snow it doesn’t matter but when precip is lighter it becomes a bigger deal. 

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Rjay

Rjay

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No.  1/7/94 there were some places on the very far north shore that got like 5 inches of snow while the south shore was FZRA all day but that’s closest example I know  

South of Merrick Rd in Merrick had 6/7" in that Feb 2014 storm.  A few miles north had around 1'.  

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jm1220

jm1220

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Surface temps may be a big difference too it’s still early so I could see places right along the Atlantic warming into the mid 30s or so. If it’s heavy snow it doesn’t matter but when precip is lighter it becomes a bigger deal. 

It's better up here for sure but it won't a miracle blizzard at my house while Captree's driving rain. The sleet may be held off an hour or so but that's it to my eyes. 

One "extreme" example I can think of is 2/13/14 but even that gave me 7" in Long Beach at the end, and the north shore maybe 12-13"? The rain line literally sat 5 miles north of me for hours. 

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Rjay

Rjay

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No.  1/7/94 there were some places on the very far north shore that got like 5 inches of snow while the south shore was FZRA all day but that’s closest example I know  

You don't remember the Feb 2014 event?

Almost brought JM to tears lol 

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

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4 minutes ago, ChickenMan888 said:

What do you guys think of News12 prediction??? They think there is going to be a changeover to rain/sleet for NYC and most of southern westchester in the middle of the night.  

 

https://westchester.news12.com/up-to-16-of-snow-expected-for-wednesday-into-thursday      (the video)

 

But to be fair, News12 I think has ALWAYS been the worst when it comes to winter storm predictions. 

I doubt rain makes it to southern westchester, sleet definitely may. 

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