Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[sferic]

Does anyone think any spot in the massive storm will hit 30"? Does this storm have that potential oomph ?

 

Can you imagine if this storm slowed down; even by 3-6 hours?

[North and West]

Just now, sferic said:

Does anyone think any spot in the massive storm will hit 30"? Does this storm have that potential oomph ?

Central PA if things play out as they're showing.

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, sferic said:

Does anyone think any spot in the massive storm will hit 30"? Does this storm have that potential oomph ?

Somewhere in NE PA 

[Sn0waddict]

When does the 18z euro come out?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

When does the 18z euro come out?

Soon 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

When does the 18z euro come out?

7pm

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Don't know.  Those mid level warm noses can really over achieve and fire north with a close enough slp.  Seen it happen before with a similar track. 

Not impossible but not likely.  I think we get 12-15. Ratios will be 13 or 14:1 also. 

[romba]

4:20 pm update:

 

[Heisy]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

7pm

Starts rolling on stormvista at 645, get your game up

[Rjay]

40 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

I understand that but I don’t think the 700 low tracks west of us I think the low gets pulled underneath us. Maybe we get a brief fight between snow and sleet for an hour but this in my opinion is an all snow event for Central Park! And heavy snow the whole time no dry slot

 

[dave0176]

11 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I am really rooting for all of us get at least 10 inches and I will feel for anyone here near the coast who might get disappointed. Winter is just starting, remember no matter what the final outcome.  Long way to go for several more snowstorms hopefully. 

I won’t be disappointed, I’m used to it, almost count on it every snow......

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Starts rolling on stormvista at 645, get your game up

Lol. Thanks hezy 

[sussexcountyobs]

The 18z GFS is going to make all you city folks down below, very happy.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

The 18z GFS is going to make all you city folks down below, very happy.

Why? I keep reading here that the GFS is worthless. If it's all alone....or is it?

[NJwx85]

Remember, it could always be worse. You could live in DC.

 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Why? I keep reading here that the GFS is worthless. If it's all alone....or is it?

The GFS is a great model if it shows snow.

[HVSnowLover]

26 minutes ago, romba said:

4:20 pm update:

 

Upton holding steady pretty much for the city on NW 

[wdrag]

Am comfortable with the topic as updated this morning at 5am and subsequent posts today seeing new guidance through 6PM. Will return in the morning.  Basically this is a NWS amounts, phase change timing issues. 

[Eduardo]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Remember, it could always be worse. You could live in DC.

 

Lived there from 2010 to 2013.  I can recall seeing snow three times the entire time and the highest total was 2 inches. Watching January 2011’s extravaganza from down there was sheer torture.

We really have been spoiled up here the past decade.  I’ll gladly take 6-10” here in the city. I’d welcome the icy glacier that’ll preserve the pack too!

[SnowGoose69]

I don't see a huge change in the 18Z Euro...it may be a tad faster if anything.  Seems maybe a nose north on the 12Z Thu AM panel

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I tried finding a specific storm which was similar to this.  None since 1980 came up.  Its not a true SWFE where we flip to sleet or rain.  It has similarities to 2/13/14 for sure but also other storms.  12/14/03 is still the top analog on CIPS but this setup at 500 is way different 

There aren’t many examples of Miller B cold winter storms tracking over Southern NJ in December. The only one that comes to mind during another winter month Valentine’s Day in 2007. But that had features that were different from this one. We usually see Miller B primaries weaken to our west before a new center pops SE of ACY.

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't see a huge change in the 18Z Euro...it may be a tad faster if anything.  Seems maybe a nose north on the 12Z Thu AM panel

Still around a foot for nyc and pretty much same n/w so not bad 

[Rittenhouse]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Remember, it could always be worse. You could live in DC.

 

As you can see in that snow map, western suburbs of DC do alright. Dulles Airport averages about as much snow as NYC. 

[Gravity Wave]

Models are really starting to catch on to the enhanced banding for NYC and the coast Thursday morning; the precip minima that was over the city in yesterday afternoon's model runs has moved west to WNJ and far eastern PA.

[Allsnow]

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Still around a foot for nyc and pretty much same n/w so not bad 

We get hit  on the front end and the back end

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The GFS is a great model if it shows snow.

Same can be said about the Euro

[jm1220]

Again, wondering how real that back-end snow is. We would need a pretty vigorous upper air low pivoting east to really keep that snow area intact. I'm still thinking much more will come from the initial thump and hoping the dryslot/mix can be minimized near the city. 

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Again, wondering how real that back-end snow is. We would need a pretty vigorous upper air low pivoting east to really keep that snow area intact. I'm still thinking much more will come from the initial thump and hoping the dryslot/mix can be minimized near the city. 

Def encouraging trends let’s keep it going with 00z

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Again, wondering how real that back-end snow is. We would need a pretty vigorous upper air low pivoting east to really keep that snow area intact. I'm still thinking much more will come from the initial thump and hoping the dryslot/mix can be minimized near the city. 

Hopefully  it comes in early and like a wall