Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[uncle W]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

this map looks cockeyed...the pink areas over the city should be blue with 6-8"...it must be seeing the city comma headed on the back side...

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The day before that storm I was being my usual Eeyore self and saying that March storms rarely deliver more than a foot in the immediate NYC area, but not because I know anything about the science its just history. No less than Mitchell Volk came on and basically said I was right ( for the wrong reasons maybe ) and that he thought there would be more sleet. Not only was there, but it went way north of where it was supposed to, but those areas had a longer duration snow and still did well. We got about 3-6 of garbage here.

This is different because of the blocking setup in place, but it was clear for days that the strong incoming trough would try to make this storm now hug or cut and we would need the confluence to force an east turn. 

[nycwinter]

lee goldberg showing on his future cast the mix line in the city from just after midnight all the way to 8:00 am..

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Surface temps r not going above freezing maybe 850’s n you’ll get sleet or freezing rain

Surface temps definitely may go above freezing especially SE of the city. Fortunately the high shouldn’t allow too much warming at the surface. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, uncle W said:

this map looks cockeyed...the pink areas over the city should be blue with 6-8"...it must be seeing the city comma headed on the back side...

Yes sir

[Dark Star]

36 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Looks like the hill country SW of Syracuse got buried in this one.

The time? What about the hair... 

5 decades of weather watching around here and I can only think of two or three times that backside snows actually amounted to anything of consequence. Christmas 02 being the most dramatic of them.

As mentioned above. What a cool storm that was right? From a cold rain to a foot of glue in just a few hours. The biggest problem was how wet the lower layers were and how hard they froze overnight. That was one of the worst shoveling episodes I've ever experienced and I had to get it done so I could leave home at 6am for work. No sleep at all that night...

The tiny sliver goes right over the Mt A massif. There's a 'big rock' named Mt Agamenticus in that corner and it has a habit of drawing whatever last little bit of storm is passing by and amplifying it. When the ski area was operational they would often record absurd snowfall amounts when the mountains in the vicinity would show a few inches. Now it's just a conglomeration of awesome mt bike trails but it still gets crazy snow.

I vaguely remember that one, at two years old...

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

lee goldberg showing on his future cast the mix line in the city from just after midnight all the way to 8:00 am..

Forget that if the models keep shifting the low.

Euro up soon

[sferic]

If anyone can post the 18z euro snow maps that would be great

[romba]

18z Euro runs around 6:50

[TriPol]

26 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Alright now they're naming models after infectious diseases.

You should see the 18Z COVID.

[sferic]

@snywx @crossbowftw3 ready for a doozy blockbuster of 15-20 inches?

[SnowGoose69]

These maps show you the Euro WB snow maps are likely wrong for say JFK for example.  Likely counting sleet so I'm sure reality Euro has only 5-7 at JFK.  Those real accurate Euro snow maps from ECMWF usually get shared illegally somewhere but I have not seen them yet today.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020121512&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020121512&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, sferic said:

@snywx @crossbowftw3 ready for a doozy blockbuster of 15-20 inches?

Yep, gonna swing slightly under IMBY but a foot is pretty secure I think. Ratios still good but BGM did mention this in their AFD:

Thermally, the models also suggest a nose of warmer air aloft
advancing into at least the southeastern portion of our area
overnight Wednesday night, yet still below freezing. This may
contribute to some riming on ice crystals and thus slightly
lower snow-to-liquid ratios.

should not impact ratios too much but might create our upper bound at 12-18.

[sferic]

4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Yep, gonna swing slightly under IMBY but a foot is pretty secure I think. Ratios still good but BGM did mention this in their AFD:

Thermally, the models also suggest a nose of warmer air aloft
advancing into at least the southeastern portion of our area
overnight Wednesday night, yet still below freezing. This may
contribute to some riming on ice crystals and thus slightly
lower snow-to-liquid ratios.

should not impact ratios too much but might create our upper bound at 12-18.

Wasn't this reserved for portions of NE Pa ?

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes sir

Absolutely blitzes the city but with the rain line that close it’s a fine line 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, sferic said:

Wasn't this reserved for portions of NE Pa ?

Correct. It may sneak into Sullivan for a time but probably not a guarantee. Like I said, won’t impact ratios too terribly. I would guess NEPA gets 10-12:1 while we stay closer to 12-14:1.

[bluewave]

This storm looks like it will be a version of the 94 ABE-ACY gradient.

Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	75.2	0

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	7.8	0

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Absolutely blitzes the city but with the rain line that close it’s a fine line 

You have to smell the rain if you want big totals

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This storm looks like it will be a version of the 94 ABE-ACY gradient.

Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	75.2	0

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	7.8	0

 

I tried finding a specific storm which was similar to this.  None since 1980 came up.  Its not a true SWFE where we flip to sleet or rain.  It has similarities to 2/13/14 for sure but also other storms.  12/14/03 is still the top analog on CIPS but this setup at 500 is way different 

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Correct. It may sneak into Sullivan for a time but probably not a guarantee. Like I said, won’t impact ratios too terribly. I would guess NEPA gets 10-12:1 while we stay closer to 12-14:1.

For that matter what were our ratios for Pi Day? @sferic

[David-LI]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You have to smell the rain if you want big totals

- Albert Einstein

[sferic]

3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Correct. It may sneak into Sullivan for a time but probably not a guarantee. Like I said, won’t impact ratios too terribly. I would guess NEPA gets 10-12:1 while we stay closer to 12-14:1.

What ae your thoughts of the possibility of thundersnow?

Do you see this as a solid 12 hour event or a solid 12-18 hour event?

I can't stand 6-8 hour storms no matter how many inches per hour they produce

[White Gorilla]

Hard to believe for my area in Poughkeepsie we go from fear of fringe to now fear of taint, sleet in such short order.  

[tdp146]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You have to smell the rain if you want big totals

If I can smell the rain because its raining, will I get big snow totals? 

[sferic]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

For that matter what were our ratios for Pi Day? @sferic

I do not recall

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Hard to believe for my area in Poughkeepsie we go from fear of fringe to now fear of taint, sleet in such short order.  

sleet is not reaching poughkeepsie u are golden for 12-20”

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

What ae your thoughts of the possibility of thundersnow?

Do you see this as a solid 12 hour event or a solid 12-18 hour event?

I can't stand 6-8 hour storms no matter how many inches per hour they produce

Likely happening over 12-18 hours, closer to perhaps 15 or so between mid-afternoon tomorrow and rapidly tapering off Thursday morning. The 1-2” (isolated 3?) inch hourly rates likely kicks off by 8-9 PM tomorrow night and rips until early morning. Lighter snows will continue past sunrise and continue thereafter until it ends by...realistically anywhere from 7 AM-Noon.

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

sleet is not reaching poughkeepsie u are golden for 12-20”

Don't know.  Those mid level warm noses can really over achieve and fire north with a close enough slp.  Seen it happen before with a similar track. 

[friedmators]

You have to smell the rain if you want big totals

Gotta flirt with taint if you wanna JP


.

[White Gorilla]

I am really rooting for all of us get at least 10 inches and I will feel for anyone here near the coast who might get disappointed. Winter is just starting, remember no matter what the final outcome.  Long way to go for several more snowstorms hopefully.