Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

It’ll be real somewhere for sure. The strong mid level lows mean there’ll be a huge front end hit of snow where we can make it happen but also dry air circulates in behind it. 

Whatcha think of nam? Def improvement hope 00z continues we still got time we don’t need that much of a jump 

[Jeff Grann]

3 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

NAM is a big hit for the city

It comes inland over SNJ at 1am...You really think that is good for NYC? If so I have a bridge to sell you. LOL

[jdj5211]

from HR 33- HR 36 the low jumps back west....doubt that happens....I like this run overall...much better than 12Z

if it continued on the ENE track it would remain all snow NNJ/NYC

HR 39 crashes back to all snow....that little hiccup west is likely incorrect

[nycsnow]

the areas that sleet turn back over to snow to on the nam

[uncle W]

Feb 61 had heavy snow from NYC northwest almost to the great lakes...it was later in the season and temperatures were zero before the storm...but it does happen...

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

from HR 33- HR 36 the low jumps back west....doubt that happens....I like this run overall...much better than 12Z

if it continued on the ENE track it would remain all snow NNJ/NYC

it's had that for several runs-some sort of feedback issue

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

It comes inland over SNJ at 1am...You really think that is good for NYC? If so I have a bridge to sell you. LOL

Yes and then moves offshore right after, changing back to snow as it pulls away.

[wizard021]

CCB at hour 39 , NYC getting hit hard.

 

[shadowsintherain]

WWBB was before that or about the same time. Lotta years ago...
 

Ahh the good old days! Can’t believe I’ve been watching you folks that long! My God. Where does the time go???


.

[Barman49]

QPF is low for the entire area.  I thought it would've been a little higher.

[jm1220]

NAM is better but still not great or a huge hit for the city. Might be a start for better trends but we'll see.

700mb low still tracks over E PA and N NJ which brings mid level warm air in. Also drying out by 6z after initial thump. It does track a little south of 12z however which was over Port Jervis. We really want that tracking south of us if possible. Just north of that track will have the heaviest snow. 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Yes and then moves offshore right after, changing back to snow as it pulls away.

Back end snows? The check is in the mail.....

[bluewave]

Just now, weathermedic said:

Saw tidal flooding this morning along Brookville Blvd in Queens. Was about a foot of water on the roadway with the lunar high tide. Can imagine that would be impassable if the storm does what it’s supposed to do. 

These are the highest astronomical tides of the month with the new moon. So E to NE  wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range will really pile up the water for early Thursday.  It will probably look like icebergs in Freeport as the snowpack begins to float on the surge. Had this happen several times in Long Beach.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Back end snows? The check is in the mail.....

Its not back end snow

It turns to snow as the low scoots under us

[wizard021]

Nam is 100% better , h5 low is further south we get hit backside with 2 to 4 inch hour rates for an hour .

[Juturna]

Should be a nice storm for most. And after the drought we had, its a great storm, really.

[nycsnow]

BIG CCB on the hi res nam

[nycsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its not back end snow

It turns to snow as the low scoots under us

3k nam has a nice band over us towards end

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Back end snows? The check is in the mail.....

Thank you Santa 

[Brian5671]

everyone's back in after all the moaning this morning...LOL

[nycsnow]

We don’t need a big tick at 00z for all of this board to be happy 

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its not back end snow

It turns to snow as the low scoots under us

I see. Misinterpreted the meaning.

[kat5hurricane]

Something off with that run. It moved off the Delmarva at hour 33 then back west into the Delmarva at 35? Uh... ok then.

The 18z runs always seem to be kind of wonky. 0z will be more telling.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Thank you Santa 

I stood corrected....I misremembered. Or something.

[MJO812]

Nam has the precip arriving early

Much better run

Temps hold near freezing and drops into the 20s on the coast. 

Have to get the sleet out out of here. That is why the amounts are lower but good run.

[SnowGoose69]

The NAM seems abnormally slow with start time.   I would think the 5 boroughs is snowing by 21-2130z

[crossbowftw3]

Pretty reasonable for us north and west crew, falls in line with @Rjay had earlier.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

NYZ055>057-062-PAZ038>040-162000-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0007.201216T2000Z-201217T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KBGM.WS.W.0005.201216T1800Z-201217T1500Z/
Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-
Including the cities of Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Delhi,
Walton, Monticello, Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead, Montrose,
Damascus, and Equinunk
259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 16
  inches.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna and Northern
  Wayne counties. In New York, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and
  Sullivan counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and
  Thursday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour
  possible late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. East
  to northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph,
  especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and
  isolated power outages.

[Juturna]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

everyone's back in after all the moaning this morning...LOL

On the whole, we are a lot more "doom and gloom" compared to the other subforums. Comes with the territory of weather abuse we've gone through. Just need to keep a level head as best as possible. The runs earlier today just seemed a little TOO north, and I'll be glad if that ends up being the case. 

[jm1220]

These CCB bands are modeled so often but many times don't happen. It does have a vigorous 500 and 700mb low which close off for a time so I guess I could see that somewhere. 

[RCNYILWX]

This will be the first winter storm for the big HRRR upgrade a few weeks ago. It will be interesting to see if further development down the line replaces the NAM. Heard a while back that the NAM may be discontinued next few years 
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn20-46rapv5_hrrr_v4aab.pdf

The NAM was actually supposed to be replaced this past summer as part of replacing the entire modeling infrastructure with the GFS's FV3 core. This is the setup the ECMWF and UKMET have, with all their modeling under the same core, from global to meso to ensemble and weekly/seasonal.

Taking the NAM off line was pushed back because better verification needed to be seen of the GFS/FV3 doing the things the NAM does well as well as the NAM. The coming upgrade of the GFS, if it is a marked improvement, and that's obviously the goal of the effort, will eventually result in that timeline of the NAM being discontinued into focus. In addition, this newest upgrade of the HRRR may be the last significant one until the high res suite gets fully moved over to the FV3 as well.

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