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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Northof78 said:

So all 12z Models for NE NJ/NYC: 

NAM:          7" - 11"
RGEM:        8" - 12"
UKIE:           9" - 13"
GFS:           11" - 16"
EURO:        12" -16"

Tell me again, why are people upset?!

Some of that is sleet, beware of sleet. But yes it’s going to be a nice winter storm. 

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

Coastal people thinking they are set up for half their yearly normal in Dec when the water is warm and the storm is sitting just off LBI because a GFS clown map says so.... 

It has happened; in December. I've seen it. Just need the right set up. This doesn't appear to be it.

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friedmators

friedmators

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Both are technically a bit beyond their range.   They won't be grossly wrong but they might have overcorrected 30 miles or so which would result in a massive change for some areas.

Yea i always have to remind people of this.  A model ten days out shows major snow for I95 corridor.  Storm ends up cutting over NJ and everyone rains.  Shit 10 days in advance it was only off by 50-75 miles with the low track.  Thats damn good.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

So all 12z Models for NE NJ/NYC: 

NAM:          7" - 11"
RGEM:        8" - 12"
UKIE:           9" - 13"
GFS:           11" - 16"
EURO:        12" -16"

Tell me again, why are people upset?!

Honestly you're in a little bit better spot than those complaining. I've seen significant differences between suburban Essex county and my area over the years. 

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Yanksfan

Yanksfan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

So all 12z Models for NE NJ/NYC: 

NAM:          7" - 11"
RGEM:        8" - 12"
UKIE:           9" - 13"
GFS:           11" - 16"
EURO:        12" -16"

Tell me again, why are people upset?!

Which seemed to be a slam dunk blizzard yesterday, everybody is freaking out with the sudden NW trends of the models today. I for one didn’t see that coming, but the Euro stopped my worries. Either the models will stand pat from here on out or what I think will happen is a correction back SE. 

 

 

 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Good luck to Upton! 

GFS and Euro a foot plus still...what to do...

I'd be quite surprised at this point if we made it to a foot. 6-9" on the table still, if I had to guess we make it to the low end of that as a combo of snow and other junk. But a big front end burst can add up quick. Long Beach and the rest of the south shore might be more like 3-5". 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

So all 12z Models for NE NJ/NYC: 

NAM:          7" - 11"
RGEM:        8" - 12"
UKIE:           9" - 13"
GFS:           11" - 16"
EURO:        12" -16"

Tell me again, why are people upset?!

 Because many many posters dont live in NE NJ, CNJ is on the fence, SNJ, PHL, 5 Boros, Long Island...NNJ is locked in yes...look to your southwest, south and southeast

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstorm 93, Blizzard of 96 etc drove my passion for the weather.

 

Anyway, certainly can't discount the depictions of the NAM and the RGEM in this timeframe. It was comforting to see the Euro with an all/mostly snow solution for the city. That said, think big picture old school meteorology before we had access to this firehose of data. The parent mid-level low has trended stronger and farther run over run (looks like we'll even get fringed by light snow out here which was very low probability just a few days ago). With the pretty far north and west mid-level low center tracks, this seems to be a setup that favors a very intense front end thump with very strong large scale and mesoscale ascent (low level f-gen and steep lapse rates) in the warm conveyor belt. Hopefully not like the [Edit: March 4 2017] storm that got flooded with warm air and caused a mix much quicker.

 

Recall the 93 Superstorm had a terrible track for the coast but we still got 10-14" on the front end because the warm advection thump was that intense. For the city and a good chunk of Long Island, you could see most of your liquid equivalent QPF as snow but then dry slot and mix with the 700 mb deformation zone displaced well to the north and northwest. Good luck to everyone that's been tracking this storm! Wish I was heading up to the Catskills to ski on Thursday lol.

 

 

 

 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
Just now, jm1220 said:

I'd be quite surprised at this point if we made it to a foot. 6-9" on the table still, if I had to guess we make it to the low end of that as a combo of snow and other junk. But a big front end burst can add up quick. Long Beach and the rest of the south shore might be more like 3-5". 

Very tough call for north shore right now. Based on trends, i think 8-10" may be the ceiling, and the floor is 3-5". South shore ceiling is 6-8", floor is 1-3". This one will be fun to watch unfold

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Lurker on this thread, originally from northeast Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstorm 93, Blizzard of 96 etc drove my passion for the weather.

Anyway, certainly can't discount the depictions of the NAM and the RGEM in this timeframe. It was comforting to see the Euro with an all/mostly snow solution for the city. That said, think big picture old school meteorology before we had access to this firehose of data. The parent mid-level low has trended stronger and farther run over run (looks like we'll even get fringed by light snow out here which was very low probability just a few days ago). With the pretty far north and west mid-level low center tracks, this seems to be a setup that favors a very intense front end thump with very strong large scale and mesoscale ascent (low level f-gen and steep lapse rates) in the warm conveyor belt. Hopefully not like the March 2018(?) storm that got flooded with warm air and caused mix much quicker.

Recall the 93 Superstorm had a terrible track for the coast but we still got 10-14" on the front end because the warm advection thump was that intense. For the city and a good chunk of Long Island, you could see most of your liquid equivalent QPF as snow but then dry slot and mix with the 700 mb deformation zone displaced well to the north and northwest. Good luck to everyone that's been tracking this storm! Wish I was heading up to the Catskills to ski on Thursday lol.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks! The storm you're referring to is probably 3/14/17. 

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KeithB

KeithB

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Lurker on this thread, originally from northeast Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstorm 93, Blizzard of 96 etc drove my passion for the weather.

Anyway, certainly can't discount the depictions of the NAM and the RGEM in this timeframe. It was comforting to see the Euro with an all/mostly snow solution for the city. That said, think big picture old school meteorology before we had access to this firehose of data. The parent mid-level low has trended stronger and farther run over run (looks like we'll even get fringed by light snow out here which was very low probability just a few days ago). With the pretty far north and west mid-level low center tracks, this seems to be a setup that favors a very intense front end thump with very strong large scale and mesoscale ascent (low level f-gen and steep lapse rates) in the warm conveyor belt. Hopefully not like the March 2018(?) storm that got flooded with warm air and caused mix much quicker.

Recall the 93 Superstorm had a terrible track for the coast but we still got 10-14" on the front end because the warm advection thump was that intense. For the city and a good chunk of Long Island, you could see most of your liquid equivalent QPF as snow but then dry slot and mix with the 700 mb deformation zone displaced well to the north and northwest. Good luck to everyone that's been tracking this storm! Wish I was heading up to the Catskills to ski on Thursday lol.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for this input. Hope you get some good snowstorms this year. Just not too many, as those are usually extreme cutters for us :)

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wxman

wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes for the last 10 years on here start reading this: and before that on EasternWeather

NYC/PHL: December 24-27th Potential - New York City Metro - American Weather (americanwx.com)

LOL, and before eastern those message boards.  Getting old my friend, but not too old for good times! 

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
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Posted

SPC HREF: may a bit cold se edge but this is the snow amount from this model by 7AM Thursday, with I think 1-3" after that...maybe 4" in n CT. 

Legend has the numbers.  NYC 6-8?  MPO 21.  Looking good for a top 20 storm there and the model qpf and NAM banding suggest seoncafry band big snow east central NYS (two separate 20-25" bullseyes one in PA and one IN NYS). 

Screen Shot 2020-12-15 at 1.56.03 PM.png

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Lurker on this thread, originally from northeast Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstorm 93, Blizzard of 96 etc drove my passion for the weather.

Anyway, certainly can't discount the depictions of the NAM and the RGEM in this timeframe. It was comforting to see the Euro with an all/mostly snow solution for the city. That said, think big picture old school meteorology before we had access to this firehose of data. The parent mid-level low has trended stronger and farther run over run (looks like we'll even get fringed by light snow out here which was very low probability just a few days ago). With the pretty far north and west mid-level low center tracks, this seems to be a setup that favors a very intense front end thump with very strong large scale and mesoscale ascent (low level f-gen and steep lapse rates) in the warm conveyor belt. Hopefully not like the March 2018(?) storm that got flooded with warm air and caused mix much quicker.

Recall the 93 Superstorm had a terrible track for the coast but we still got 10-14" on the front end because the warm advection thump was that intense. For the city and a good chunk of Long Island, you could see most of your liquid equivalent QPF as snow but then dry slot and mix with the 700 mb deformation zone displaced well to the north and northwest. Good luck to everyone that's been tracking this storm! Wish I was heading up to the Catskills to ski on Thursday lol.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Wonderful comment and thanks for weighing in! March 93 also came after a snow drought of several years between big events, and while it wasn't all snow here, it was an awesome storm and when it changed to sleet the sound of pellets was like a sandblaster. Sometime late there was a period of freezing rain which turned it all into 10 inches of concrete. That had as great an impact as two feet of snow. 

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