Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[wxman]

One more tick SE and it will be the storm we had been expecting.  Not impossible at all.

[friedmators]

99/100 with the LP over SNJ I would think the ML would get flooded with warmth basically everywhere. The high is strong but is it that strong?

[wxman]

Doesn't this happen almost every storm?  And, yet, we forget.  

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I wish people here analyzed the models as much as they analyze the posts and posters, we’d have an amazing thread....

[friedmators]

Windy that's for sure even if overdone a bit.

[HVSnowLover]

I think its a red flag other models might have overdone nw trend a bit since Euro held steady at 12z. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sleet included

[Jeff Grann]

28 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Upstate people always stealing my snow not fair

Coastal people thinking they are set up for half their yearly normal in Dec when the water is warm and the storm is sitting just off LBI because a GFS clown map says so.... 

[KeithB]

7 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Can some people let the run finish instead of saying stuff like "Game Over" before it plays out? The Euro seems fine to me based on first look.

100% correct!

[HVSnowLover]

Models similar to start but Euro takes the low more due east of NJ coast where as other models take it more ENE. This will be a big thing to monitor. It’s hard for the city/LI to stay snow on the Euro track but not that hard for northern suburbs to stay all snow.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

Snow depth Euro 

 

 

[Snowlover11]

euro brings us back to life! windshield wiper affect.  dont be shocked at all if the more “NW” models tick a bit se(and no this is not weenie forcasting)

[David-LI]

Let the war between euro and NAM commence. Who will win in the end? We shall see.  But my bet is on the NAM, unfortunately 

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Snow depth Euro 

 

 

what have we got for ratios? Still over 12:1 I assume?

[nycwinter]

will upper manhattan do better then brooklyn in regards to amounts?

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, friedmators said:

99/100 with the LP over SNJ I would think the ML would get flooded with warmth basically everywhere. The high is strong but is it that strong?

It’s the mid level low tracks that matter. If those go west of you, almost definite that you will mix and/or dryslot. Surface highs don’t stop that from happening. The high matters for the surface cold. 

[jm1220]

That said hopefully the Euro stopped the bleeding and the other amped models can tick back SE. 

[psv88]

Good luck to Upton! 

GFS and Euro a foot plus still...what to do...

[Cerinthe Major]

Well. My decision to start reading posts from an hour ago and catch up to now was an emotional journey!

[weatherlogix]

Based on the 12 Z GFS sounding for KJFK it appears to be all snow. The temps in the snow growth region suck, however.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

what have we got for ratios? Still over 12:1 I assume?

NWS Albany was talking 14:1 I think by us. I think this map includes ratios. 

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

will upper manhattan do better then brooklyn in regards to amounts?

100% thats almost always the case. upper manhattan could see 8-10” while brooklyn sees 5-8” depends where in brooklyn, obviously the closer you are to the coast the less amount could/would verify.

[lee59]

5 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

Well. My decision to start reading posts from an hour ago and catch up to now was an emotional journey!

LOL

[HeadInTheClouds]

Meso's like RGEM and Nam cannot be disregarded at this point but I too would like to see an ever so slight eastward shift. 

[billgwx]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Thanks for joining us the past few days Bill.

You're welcome. Been a while

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

100% thats almost always the case. upper manhattan could see 8-10” while brooklyn sees 5-8” depends where in brooklyn, obviously the closer you are to the coast the less amount could/would verify.

I think honestly north Bronx could get 12 and JFK 5 in this setup. Really depends how far the dry slot and sleet line get. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Meso's like RGEM and Nam cannot be disregarded at this point but I too would like to see an ever so slight eastward shift. 

Both are technically a bit beyond their range.   They won't be grossly wrong but they might have overcorrected 30 miles or so which would result in a massive change for some areas.

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

NWS Albany was talking 14:1 I think by us. I think this map includes ratios. 

BGM still talking between 12 and 14:1 as well. Pretty good I'd say. Helps limit power issues to a nonzero but quite limited factor and will be so much easier to clear. More concerned with areas closer to NYC and on coasts that do snow, paste bomb.

[Northof78]

So all 12z Models for NE NJ/NYC: 

NAM:          7" - 11"
RGEM:        8" - 12"
UKIE:           9" - 13"
GFS:           11" - 16"
EURO:        12" -16"

Tell me again, why are people upset?!

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Meso's like RGEM and Nam cannot be disregarded at this point but I too would like to see an ever so slight eastward shift. 

Wow what a change a day makes you are now rooting for an east shift lol