Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[mikem81]

At this point, I would be very surprised if NYC broke 6 inches. Unless models back off on the amped track of the storm its some front end snow for 4-5 hours of snow and then sleet/rn and dry slot at this point.

[Jeff Grann]

41 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Latest GFS showing a foot for the metro area?

And Santa was spotted by NORAD taking a test run of his sleigh last night. 

[nycwinter]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A negative epo would have been nice. 

Once again the models sucked us all in

What has happened to the models ?

even when you had the dec 2010 blizzard a day before on the models it looked like the biggest snows would be far eastern long island and not the city

[sferic]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

We gangbusters.

@crossbowftw3 dare we even throw out a 30" number with high snow ratios and QPF maxed out?

[kat5hurricane]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It was fun while it lasted but tracking for days and then it all turning to crap is crushing. 

At this point I'll be happy with an inch or two before the changeover. Who knows if that'll even happen given the trends. 

Good for PA. They've been getting skunked while we raked in the coastal for years, they deserve it.

Meh, it's not even officially winter yet so I wouldn't call this crushing but, yes, it sucks after tracking this for 5 days and losing sleep in the process waiting for the Euro to make or break our night.

[nflwxman]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I would think the worst case scenario for our area would be a 4 to 6 inch thump before the changeover, due to the very cold air in place. I'd be stunned if we got only an inch or two. Right now even the warmest models, like NAM and RGEM, give us about 8 inches before mixing.

People tend to extrapolate trends linearly with the expectation that the next run will also have a 25 mile northwest jog. Fortunately for snow lovers in our area, that is not how modeling has ever worked.

Looks like a significant storm for everyone north of Trenton. This "game over" stuff is bizarre. 

 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It really isn’t the models.

It’s a social media world with people attached to their phones 24/7

I never saw so many storm specific threads on the website before. guys have been tracking this thing and every move it made for over a week.

Of Course this was going to happen

 

So this wouldn't have happened if people didnt use social media and we made the thread 3 days ago instead? 

[snywx]

5 minutes ago, sferic said:

wow @snywx and @crossbowftw3

I think that gets shifted NW by 30 miles now. 12”+ is still likely imby

[Brian5671]

a thump followed by a dry slot is way better than a change to heavy rain.  Take it and run, it's 12/17.....

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, billgwx said:

I'd look at the resulting wet bulb temperatures from MOS temp and dewpoint more than its forecast temp. A quick and dirty estimate for wet bulb is Dpt + 2/3 * (Tmp - Dpt). Values 32-34 may still get you wet snow, provided snow is what's falling and not sleet or rain...once you lose a snowflake you can't get it back

Thanks for joining us the past few days Bill.

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

@crossbowftw3 dare we even throw out a 30" number with high snow ratios and QPF maxed out?

Entirely possible. 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it was intereresting-someone pointed out yesterday that NYC never got big (12+) totals when Central PA/State College did.    Looks to hold true again.

Such events that bring 12" to State College and New York City are uncommon. The most recent was the President's Day snowstorm of 2003.

Major Snowstorms that Brought 12" or more Snow to State College and New York City:

February 4-7, 1920: State College: 16.5"; New York City: 17.5"
February 3-4, 1961: State College: 16.7"; New York City: 17.4"
January 12-13, 1964: State College: 27.5"; New York City: 12.5"
January 19-20, 1978: State College: 12.8"; New York City: 13.6"
January 7-8, 1996: State College: 17.5"; New York City: 20.2"
February 16-17, 2003: State College: 18.2"; New York City: 19.8"

[nesussxwx]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

I think that gets shifted NW by 30 miles now. 12”+ is still likely imby

reminds me of '17. kept shifting NW till the last second. still managed 18" but was predicted 24-30"

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A negative epo would have been nice. 

Once again the models sucked us all in

What has happened to the models ?

The models did fine when you account for their northward correction short term with amped systems. I pointed this out over the weekend. That’s the reason you never want to be in the jackpot zone 5 days out. Model snowfall forecasts and exact location of the mixing line are seldom accurate beyond 24-48 hours. That’s why I am not a fan of posting all these longer range snowfall maps on social media. 

[snywx]

Just now, nesussxwx said:

reminds me of '17. kept shifting NW till the last second. still managed 18" but was predicted 24-30"

That’s exactly what this reminds me of. I think I finished with 20-22” but some places up near BGM finished with 40”

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Such events that bring 12" to State College and New York City are uncommon. The most recent was the President's Day snowstorm of 2003.

Major Snowstorms that Brought 12" or more Snow to State College and New York City:

February 4-7, 1920: State College: 16.5"; New York City: 17.5"
February 3-4, 1961: State College: 16.7"; New York City: 17.4"
January 12-13, 1964: State College: 27.5"; New York City: 12.5"
January 19-20, 1978: State College: 12.8"; New York City: 13.6"
February 16-17, 2003: State College: 18.2"; New York City: 19.8"

Don't have the exact number for each city but pretty sure Jan 1996 blizzard was 12"+ for both too. 

[sferic]

3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Entirely possible. 

Why the snow hole over Sullivan with the 12z UKMET?

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

Why the snow hole over Sullivan with the 12z UKMET?

Welcome to early winter on Long Island!!

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Don't have the exact number for each city but pretty sure Jan 1996 blizzard was 12"+ for both too. 

It was. I didn't copy it when I was scrolling through my list, but have added it since.

[HeadInTheClouds]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A negative epo would have been nice. 

Once again the models sucked us all in

What has happened to the models ?

The most egregious being the GFS. All other models had the low 100 miles north while the GFS was OTL and people kept hugging it. Consistency doesn't mean sh!t when it's obviously wrong. All models IMO can't be trusted beyond 72 hours it seems the GFS is the worst of the lot. Stubborn and stupid. This is the best this country can do? It's embarassing. 

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

So this wouldn't have happened if people didnt use social media and we made the thread 3 days ago instead? 

Correct.

Several posters over the last couple of days have been talking about a Northward  Trend. It verified. 

It just seems crushing because we had 50 plus pages of tracking before that telling us this was going to be an epic blizzard

 

 

[weatherlogix]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I still don't understand how you get 2 feet of snow in Albany with a 1038mb high parked over Quebec. Just doesn't make sense to me.

its too far east

[friedmators]

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Correct.

Several posters over the last couple of days have been talking about a Northward  Trend. It verified. 

It just seems crushing because we had 50 plus pages of tracking before that telling us this was going to be an epic blizzard

 

 

The files are IN the computer

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

Correct.

Several posters over the last couple of days have been talking about a Northward  Trend. It verified. 

It just seems crushing because we had 50 plus pages of tracking before that telling us this was going to be an epic blizzard

 

 

Honestly can’t believe this is actually going to end up cutting west....thought this was a cut and dry case of a well offshore low track given the setup and confluence. I was wrong. Such is the way of the world....

[weatherlogix]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like  the 3/14/17 disaster. 

so exactly what I said last night

[friedmators]

The OP GFS low position @ 42 is west of every ensemble member. 

Similar with the Euro. Maybe 90% of the members are east of the OP.

[Juliancolton]

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Correct.

Several posters over the last couple of days have been talking about a Northward  Trend. It verified. 

It just seems crushing because we had 50 plus pages of tracking before that telling us this was going to be an epic blizzard

No, by definition it didn't verify. Not yet. Verification happens after the forecast period has passed. 

[Snowlover11]

Well this has been a dagger to MOST of us.  obviously our north and west guys will do extremely well but once again we all got sucked in by the models(me included).

[NEG NAO]

I would like to know Walt's opinion of all this depressing throwing in the towel talk going on here.........

 

[Allsnow]

I’m going to be wrong but it is what it is. This still has a chance to be the best December event in years. It’s absolutely true on how you don’t want to be in the jackpot 3-5 days out. I will hold true to that next time. The good news? The pattern looks good going forward with no signs of a southeast ridg/Niña pattern. We will have more chances going forward. Enjoy the snow up north from Pa-NY-NNE