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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That's about the textbook perfect track for Central PA big snow I learned when I was at PSU. For us.... :yikes:

Regardless I'll be happy that State College should finally get a huge one after so many years from the looks of it. 3/14/17 was good out there but not crushing like up near the Poconos/Catskills. 

Yeah, that State College–Albany corridor highlighted by the RGEM et al. deserves it more than just about anybody. They've been real troopers through years and years of getting the shaft.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

It was fun while it lasted but tracking for days and then it all turning to crap is crushing. 

At this point I'll be happy with an inch or two before the changeover. Who knows if that'll even happen given the trends. 

Good for PA. They've been getting skunked while we raked in the coastal for years, they deserve it.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

All these teases on on the NYC folks, but again the NW trend has not stopped. Looks like mix to Boston already on Canadian sweet. Are we next to fall? Will this be congrats Albany to Maine? Over 24 hours of more north trending possible.

Coming closer and closer to 2017 track.

Probably; once the fix is in it usually starts parading its way more northward than expected. Comes in earlier and mixes faster. I base this on nothing but observation over the years and absolutely nothing based in any kind of science, which I mostly don't understand anyway but at least admit to it.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, that State College–Albany corridor highlighted by the RGEM et al. deserves it more than just about anybody. They've been real troopers through years and years of getting the shaft.

Lots of moderate type events when I lived in State College 2004-2009, nothing more than 10-11". Takes a setup just like this to really crush that area, track from Chesapeake Bay to NJ. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It was fun while it lasted but tracking for days and then it all turning to crap is crushing. 

At this point I'll be happy with an inch or two before the changeover. Who knows if that'll even happen given the trends. 

We will get more than that. We will have a cold airmass in place.

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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My preliminary forecast:

Scranton - 18-24"

Allentown - 18-24"

Morristown - 14-20"

Trenton - 3-6"

Philadelphia - 2-4"

Newburgh - 14-20"

Nyack - 12-18"

Islip - 10-14"

Central Park - 6-10"

LGA - 4-8"

JFK - 4-8"

Riverhead - C-2"

Newark - 6-10"

I'd like to see you verify for MMU; if this is similar to March 14, 2017, where we got about a foot or slightly more of snow and sleet, it'll be a beast to clear from my driveway. That was one of the hardest storms to shovel. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
Just now, Brian5671 said:

it was intereresting-someone pointed out yesterday that NYC never got big (12+) totals when Central PA/State College did.    Looks to hold true again.

We can and have but this isn't the storm for it and not an analog for those. If the confluence was to hold better it could, looks now like it will be retreating and the low will be able to hug too far north. 

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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Probably; once the fix is in it usually starts parading its way more northward than expected. Comes in earlier and mixes faster. I base this on nothing but observation over the years and absolutely nothing based in any kind of science, which I mostly don't understand anyway but at least admit to it.

ha! me too. totally based upon what I've seen over and over and over again through the years. 

 

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JustinRP37

JustinRP37

Posted
Posted

Over the past few years I have learned not to get too caught up in model fluctuations and exact amounts. That combined with having a toddler means I don't stay up for model runs anymore. But two things: we have a cold airmass and things still look good at the beginning. That said this is still an early season storm with a warm ocean nearby. While it might not be the best for the city, this is HUGE for southern NY and southern New England ski areas that have been badly hurt the last few seasons. Let's get that white gold to them!

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It was fun while it lasted but tracking for days and then it all turning to crap is crushing. 

At this point I'll be happy with an inch or two before the changeover. Who knows if that'll even happen given the trends. 

Good for PA. They've been getting skunked while we raked in the coastal for years, they deserve it.

I would think the worst case scenario for our area would be a 4 to 6 inch thump before the changeover, due to the very cold air in place. I'd be stunned if we got only an inch or two. Right now even the warmest models, like NAM and RGEM, give us about 8 inches before mixing.

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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Over the past few years I have learned not to get too caught up in model fluctuations and exact amounts. That combined with having a toddler means I don't stay up for model runs anymore. But two things: we have a cold airmass and things still look good at the beginning. That said this is still an early season storm with a warm ocean nearby. While it might not be the best for the city, this is HUGE for southern NY and southern New England ski areas that have been badly hurt the last few seasons. Let's get that white gold to them!

Also, with the baby and COVID, it's important to sleep! It's an underrated element to staying well.

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the_other_guy

the_other_guy

Posted
Posted
Just now, MJO812 said:

A negative epo would have been nice. 

Once again the models sucked us all in

What has happened to the models ?

It really isn’t the models.

It’s a social media world with people attached to their phones 24/7

I never saw so many storm specific threads on the website before. guys have been tracking this thing and every move it made for over a week.

Of Course this was going to happen

 

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billgwx

billgwx

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, DHS@ABE said:

The 12Z GFS MOS has above freezing surface temperatures at JFK for the entire event. 

I'd look at the resulting wet bulb temperatures from MOS temp and dewpoint more than its forecast temp. A quick and dirty estimate for wet bulb is Dpt + 2/3 * (Tmp - Dpt). Values 32-34 may still get you wet snow, provided snow is what's falling and not sleet or rain...once you lose a snowflake you can't get it back :D

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