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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the last time we really had to worry about confluence here was 2-6-10. But that was a -5 AO vs  -3 now. Most of the time for us the correction is more N and W with amped systems. That’s  why some of our best snowstorms on record were modeled 3-5 days out to crush Philly or DC. But then corrected north in the short term. So a day 5 forecast with the mixing just to our south usually shifts further north in the short term. So now it looks like mixing will be an issue near the coast following the initial front end thump.

speaking of the ao its forecast is to rise to near neutral and go negative again stronger than now...one member even goes past -5sd...Iwishfull thinking there...another storm could effect us next week or after Christmas...rain/snow???

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
Just now, weatherbear5 said:

GFS VERBATIM, is predominantly snow for central Long Island, based on soundings

I would give it a 5% of verifying that way though. The models ALWAYS under-do warm air intrusion in the mid-levels

Verbatim (laughable of course) the mid level lows seem to track in a way that keeps the mix and dryslot just south of the island. The mix becomes a problem when you start having strong southerly mid level winds. 

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kat5hurricane

kat5hurricane

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

And this is why you can't trust the GFS especially when it is on its own. For 5 days it was 100 miles south of practically every other model with the low and then moved it east, and was showing a pathetic and incorrect northern extent of precip. Look at it now. It gives me 18 inches after giving me 2 inches for 5 days. POS. 

The GFS trending north eventually was as predictable as Anthony hoping for a blizzard.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, North and West said:

We got around a foot with that one out here.

5-7 here and not much south the issue there was the officials held onto the big numbers for these areas even though it was clear it wasn't happening, because they didn't want people going out in a sleet fest. I would hope they at least let folks know when they know this time.

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billgwx

billgwx

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Verbatim (laughable of course) the mid level lows seem to track in a way that keeps the mix and dryslot just south of the island. The mix becomes a problem when you start having strong southerly mid level winds. 

Which is what the warmer NAM solutions had been forecasting.

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e46and2

e46and2

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Reading some from the NE forum many seem to think that the models have over corrected too far NW and will come back some to SE.... 

i think this just proves we have a generally negative outlook as a group.  just about everyone on the forums wants the snow, and [almost] everyone has doubts for their backyard

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kat5hurricane

kat5hurricane

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Reading some from the NE forum many seem to think that the models have over corrected too far NW and will come back some to SE.... 

What is that based on?

I know every storm is different but once the north trend starts on all models within a couple of days of the event, I don't ever recall those trends reversing.

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

What is that based on?

I know every storm is different but once the north trend starts on all models within a couple of days of the event, I don't ever recall those trends reversing.

Models do have a tendency is over correcting its happened many times and I believe Typhoon Tip made some good points about it... can't find it though now.

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