uncle W Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 its to early in the season for a complex system to be all snow in NYC...4" front end and drizzle afterwards... sounds like Dec 19th 2008...a big snow is not off the table but its at the edge half off... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, JoshSnow said: Gfs is west but it’s definitely snowy for nyc proper It moved 100 miles. This is not the storm for NYC and Long Island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: It moved 100 miles. This is not the storm for NYC and Long Island yeah and it may have more to move NW-we still have 36 hrs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS really nice for the metro, probably 12" - 18" for most... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My friend just came back from the supermarket. He said it was insanely packed . The media loves driving people insane. Lets hope for the rest of the models to come out good Supposed to be 50 % max capacity in New York - also too many people here are hanging their hats on one model run but others are not which is the way to go about this IMO. Also take into consideration how much moisture will be wasted in virga at the start and also IMO there are going to be a few surprises during this storm many storms like this one do especially the first one of the season - remember what happened during the November 2018 storm ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Rgem and gfs fine for nyc crew.... gfs better for upstate since it’s def north. Minus eastern Long Island we’d all do ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: It looks like New York City is going to get skunked! Wtf man we always get this Climo. You guys watched days of a tucked in low along the NJ coast and believed clown maps showing 14"?It's December, the water is still warm and in my 56 years of living in NYC and now up a few miles North of West Point, I have learned that anything that rides up the coast farther North than extreme SNJ before heading to the benchmark will almost always flip over to sleet/zr/rain East of I95. You are kidding yourself if you think otherwise. Hell, with some of these tucked models the last 24 hrs I am worried about sleet up here at the height of the storm. There is a reason NYC only averages under 30' a year. More often then not, these blockbusters disappoint at the end. Don't start bitching if you get 2-4' unless a Noreaster that was consistently progged to go from the Delmarva to Nantucket suddenly winds up just off LBI. Reality.. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I thought the trends weren’t great for Albany yesterday when the confluence looked better and the trough not so amped. That looks to be changing so their chances go up big time. That area from Albany to State College would get annihilated if the Nam/Rgem are right. I think the last time we really had to worry about confluence here was 2-6-10. But that was a -5 AO vs -3 now. Most of the time for us the correction is more N and W with amped systems. That’s why some of our best snowstorms on record were modeled 3-5 days out to crush Philly or DC. But then corrected north in the short term. So a day 5 forecast with the mixing just to our south usually shifts further north in the short term. So now it looks like mixing will be an issue near the coast following the initial front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like the 3/14/17 disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yeah and it may have more to move NW-we still have 36 hrs to go This was never NYC storm. This will be a few inches to slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like the 3/14/17 disaster. Yep agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Supposed to be 50 % max capacity in New York - also too many people here are hanging their hats on one model run but others are not which is the way to go about this IMO. Also take into consideration how much moisture will be wasted in virga at the start and also IMO there are going to be a few surprises during this storm many storms like this one do especially the first one of the season - remember what happened during the November 2018 storm ? I'd be more leery of being in any sort of crowd than of any kind of snow these days. It's not just the first storm of the season though; it is the first of any consequence for many in a couple years. And that's looking shakey too. I can only go by what people say here; I'm no expert and don't bother with the media forecasts; they are usually a day late and a dollar short..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Rgem and gfs fine for nyc crew.... gfs better for upstate since it’s def north. Minus eastern Long Island we’d all do ok Everything's still trending NW though that's the problem. A quick shot of snow to rain is looking more likely. Even places well north and into CT could dry slot. I wasn't trolling when I said 1-3/2-4" this morning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Northof78 said: GFS really nice for the metro, probably 12" - 18" for most... For now but this seems like the beginning of a trend towards the other guidance so I doubt it's done trending north. I'd expect the Ukie and Euro to follow suit. The trends are undeniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 So far for NE NJ/NYC: NAM: 7" - 10" RGEM: 9" - 12" GFS: 12" - 18" Not too shabby.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The only thing that can save the NYC Metro from mixing is if this is the most NW models go and they slowly go back SE given how much they have moved. Otherwise, the NW trend will continue and NYC will see 2-4 then some slush... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 And 6-9” of snow/sleet can be quite impactful. I remember being in LI City after the 3/14/17 sleet fest in NYC and seeing the huge piles. Central Park I think ended with 7.5” of junk. I can see something like that happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like the 3/14/17 disaster. We got around a foot with that one out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like the 3/14/17 disaster. Disaster for some, but I received 21 inches from that disaster. As always on this forum one mans disaster becomes another mans gain, and it goes both ways, we've all been there and this one didn't even start yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Northof78 said: GFS really nice for the metro, probably 12" - 18" for most... good luck with that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The good news is that the 12z GFS doesn't have as pronounced of a dry slot as the NAM/RGEM. The biggest difference is that the 700mb low tracks over LI instead of the Poconos. The bad news is that it trended way North with the track of the 700mb low from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, NJwx85 said: The good news is that the 12z GFS doesn't have as pronounced of a dry slot as the NAM/RGEM. The biggest difference is that the 700mb low tracks over LI instead of the Poconos. The bad news is that it trended way North with the track of the 700mb low from the previous run. You think thats bad, look how far north it moved with the 850 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Disaster for some, but I received 21 inches from that disaster. As always on this forum one mans disaster becomes another mans gain, and it goes both ways, we've all been there and this one didn't even start yet. Ehhh. Reason I say disaster was we were supposed to get 8-12” even in S Nassau where I was living at the time and I think ended with 3” and then driving rain. But the writing was on the wall for that too. I think we’re in a better airmass to start for this one though so hopefully we can get the strong front end that drops a quick half foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 And this is why you can't trust the GFS especially when it is on its own. For 5 days it was 100 miles south of practically every other model with the low and then moved it east, and was showing a pathetic and incorrect northern extent of precip. Look at it now. It gives me 18 inches after giving me 2 inches for 5 days. POS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS is a crapshoot model. moves 100 miles north but cant deny the northern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Joe4alb said: You think thats bad, look how far north it moved with the 850 low The GFS is just laughable. The upgrade can’t come soon enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Could always hope rgem and nam trend to gfs and nice vice versa... let’s see what cmc ukie and euro do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: You think thats bad, look how far north it moved with the 850 low Gfs does this all the time Our best bet is the precip comes in earlier and its snow to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, nycsnow said: Could always hope rgem and nam trend to gfs and nice vice versa... let’s see what cmc ukie and euro do The CMC is the RGEM cloned long term. Its gonna show the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS VERBATIM, is predominantly snow for central Long Island, based on soundings I would give it a 5% of verifying that way though. The models ALWAYS under-do warm air intrusion in the mid-levels 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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