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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My friend just came back from the supermarket. He said it was insanely packed .

The media loves driving people insane.

Lets hope for the rest of the models to come out good 

Supposed to be 50 % max capacity in New York - also too many people here are hanging their hats on one model run but others are not which is the way to go about this IMO. Also take into consideration how much moisture will be wasted in virga at the start and also IMO there are going to be a few surprises during this storm many storms like this one do especially the first one of the season - remember what happened during the November 2018 storm ?

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Jeff Grann

Jeff Grann

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

It looks like New York City is going to get skunked! Wtf man we always get this 

Climo. You guys watched days of a tucked in low along the NJ coast and believed clown maps showing 14"?It's December, the water is still warm and in my 56 years of living in NYC and now up a few miles North of West Point, I have learned that anything that rides up the coast farther North than extreme SNJ before heading to the benchmark will almost always flip over to sleet/zr/rain East of I95. You are kidding yourself if you think otherwise. Hell, with some of these tucked models the last 24 hrs I am worried about sleet up here at the height of the storm. There is a reason NYC only averages under 30' a year. More often then not, these blockbusters disappoint at the end. Don't start bitching if you get 2-4' unless a Noreaster that was consistently progged to go from the Delmarva to Nantucket suddenly winds up just off LBI. Reality.. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I thought the trends weren’t great for Albany yesterday when the confluence looked better and the trough not so amped. That looks to be changing so their chances go up big time. That area from Albany to State College would get annihilated if the Nam/Rgem are right. 

I think the last time we really had to worry about confluence here was 2-6-10. But that was a -5 AO vs  -3 now. Most of the time for us the correction is more N and W with amped systems. That’s  why some of our best snowstorms on record were modeled 3-5 days out to crush Philly or DC. But then corrected north in the short term. So a day 5 forecast with the mixing just to our south usually shifts further north in the short term. So now it looks like mixing will be an issue near the coast following the initial front end thump.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like  the 3/14/17 disaster. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like  the 3/14/17 disaster. 

Yep agree

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Supposed to be 50 % max capacity in New York - also too many people here are hanging their hats on one model run but others are not which is the way to go about this IMO. Also take into consideration how much moisture will be wasted in virga at the start and also IMO there are going to be a few surprises during this storm many storms like this one do especially the first one of the season - remember what happened during the November 2018 storm ?

I'd be more leery of being in any sort of crowd than of any kind of snow these days. It's not just the first storm of the season though; it is the first of any consequence for many in a couple years. And that's looking shakey too. I can only go by what people say here; I'm no expert and don't bother with the media forecasts; they are usually a day late and a dollar short.....

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Rgem and gfs fine for nyc crew.... gfs better for upstate since it’s def north. Minus eastern Long Island we’d all do ok 

Everything's still trending NW though that's the problem. 

A quick shot of snow to rain is looking more likely. Even places well north and into CT could dry slot.

I wasn't trolling when I said 1-3/2-4" this morning.

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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like  the 3/14/17 disaster. 

We got around a foot with that one out here.

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CPcantmeasuresnow

CPcantmeasuresnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like  the 3/14/17 disaster. 

Disaster for some, but I received 21 inches from that disaster.

As always on this forum one mans disaster becomes another mans gain, and it goes both ways, we've all been there and this one didn't even start yet.

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Joe4alb

Joe4alb

Posted
Posted
Just now, NJwx85 said:

The good news is that the 12z GFS doesn't have as pronounced of a dry slot as the NAM/RGEM. The biggest difference is that the 700mb low tracks over LI instead of the Poconos. 

The bad news is that it trended way North with the track of the 700mb low from the previous run.

pejODr4.gif

 

You think thats bad, look how far north it moved with the 850 low 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Disaster for some, but I received 21 inches from that disaster.

As always on this forum one mans disaster becomes another mans gain, and it goes both ways, we've all been there and this one didn't even start yet.

Ehhh. Reason I say disaster was we were supposed to get 8-12” even in S Nassau where I was living at the time and I think ended with 3” and then driving rain. But the writing was on the wall for that too. I think we’re in a better airmass to start for this one though so hopefully we can get the strong front end that drops a quick half foot. 

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HeadInTheClouds

HeadInTheClouds

Posted
Posted

And this is why you can't trust the GFS especially when it is on its own. For 5 days it was 100 miles south of practically every other model with the low and then moved it east, and was showing a pathetic and incorrect northern extent of precip. Look at it now. It gives me 18 inches after giving me 2 inches for 5 days. POS. 

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