Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[romba]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The dry slot magnified.

Wow jeezus you can get killed in some countries for making that hand gesture.

 

Mixing issues aside, the dry slot is hard to nail down but the models have been honing in on it and so far it doesn’t look great for the metro area.

[KeithB]

So after all this, Albany really does wind up getting 2 feet? 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

Kuchera ratio RGEM is still showing a pretty good snowstorm before the changeover to sleet. Not the blockbuster snowstorm, but I'd still be happy with a good 8 inches of snow. Hopefully this is about as warm as the solutions will get, rather than continuing to fall apart at the last minute.

[David-LI]

Just now, romba said:

Wow jeezus you can get killed in some countries for making that hand gesture.

 

Mixing issues aside, the dry slot is hard to nail down but the models have been honing in on it and so far it doesn’t look great for the metro area.

That dry slot is literally giving us the finger 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, Juturna said:

You're not wrong. A snow day would be much appreciated, even if there ends up not being any snow IMBY (not that snow days truly exist with virtual teaching being an option now), still, one day not having to be around Covid kids is a bonus.

[HeadInTheClouds]

But the confluence peeps. The GFS will save us. Sarcasm. 

[sferic]

Is the Kuchera method tied in to higher snow ratios?

If not, what is its purpose and is it ever right?

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, KeithB said:

So after all this, Albany really does wind up getting 2 feet? 

Remember when people said this couldn't happen. 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, KeithB said:

So after all this, Albany really does wind up getting 2 feet? 

They probably will. 

[e46and2]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

But the confluence peeps. The GFS will save us. Sarcasm. 

i would be careful with the arrogance at this point in the forecast range.  i'd never be comfortable about a forecast until the euro comes onboard.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Remember when people said this couldn't happen. 

Remember when you didn't understand why people said that?

[NJwx85]

I still don't understand how you get 2 feet of snow in Albany with a 1038mb high parked over Quebec. Just doesn't make sense to me.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, Rjay said:

They probably will. 

The UKIE was right all along I guess. 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember when people said this couldn't happen. 

It's almost not worth it to bank on anything too many days before a storm. Outcomes that change a lot from computer prognostications are common. Predictive science is taking a beating in recent years in more than one field. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, e46and2 said:

i would be careful with the arrogance at this point in the forecast range.  i'd never be comfortable about a forecast until the euro comes onboard.

the Euro is on board. Im not being arrogant either I just think the GFS is a garbage model. 

[winterwx21]

8 minutes ago, sferic said:

Is the Kuchera method tied in to higher snow ratios?

If not, what is its purpose and is it ever right?

Higher and lower. It doesn't go with the standard 10:1 and accounts for higher or lower based on temps and other conditions. So in this case it would show lower snow amounts and not count sleet in snow totals. Right now Kuchera NAM and RGEM are still giving my area (north-central NJ) about 8 inches of snow. Really hoping it won't continue to trend worse. Will be interesting to see if GFS and EURO still show the bigger snow solutions. Hopefully NAM and RGEM are a little too amped.

[White Gorilla]

Still time for ticks and tweaks.  Hang on.  

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I still don't understand how you get 2 feet of snow in Albany with a 1038mb high parked over Quebec. Just doesn't make sense to me.

I think the shortwave at 500 is fairly strong combined with other factors. 

[North and West]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I still don't understand how you get 2 feet of snow in Albany with a 1038mb high parked over Quebec. Just doesn't make sense to me.

That's my (very unscientific and very anecdotal) thought. Only because I've seen this movie before. Then again, why not. 

[jdj5211]

Wow....everyone needs to relax for a minute. This is ALL about the placement of the 850mb low. That’s it!  That’s what’s causing the difference in the models. They’re simple trying to resolve that placement. Take a look at that precip shield on the NAM with the moisture plume coming out of the gulf about 12 hours before the storm gets to us!  The cold air is in place, the block is in a good place. This is a monster storm for mid December. Unfortunately, it’s a nowcast situation as we watch the development. However, in my opinion this is an all snow event from PHI/NYC north and a mostly rain event for SNJ and the coast. The question is what happens in between?  Where does that mixing line set up? 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think the shortwave at 500 is fairly strong combined with other factors. 

Yes the shortwave is strong but you would think given the blocking that it should just force a quicker transfer to the coastal.

[Brian5671]

Albany doesnt even have a watch right now LOL

[nycsnow]

Gfs running 

[e46and2]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

the Euro is on board. Im not being arrogant either I just think the GFS is a garbage model. 

i guess we differ about what onboard means.  it still has a major snowstorm for nyc metro...

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I still don't understand how you get 2 feet of snow in Albany with a 1038mb high parked over Quebec. Just doesn't make sense to me.

The confluence seems to be departing as the low is coming in. It’s also a very strong mid level trough that tries to amplify. We need the confluence to stay strong to force the turn east. Been that case for days. 

[mikem81]

This sucks...

[weatherbear5]

Yup. GFS more amped and with higher heights.

At this point, we hope for a front-end dump to drizzle at the coast

[nycsnow]

Gfs looks fine so far not as bad as nam or rgem

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember when people said this couldn't happen. 

I thought the trends weren’t great for Albany yesterday when the confluence looked better and the trough not so amped. That looks to be changing so their chances go up big time. That area from Albany to State College would get annihilated if the Nam/Rgem are right. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

And the GFS caves. Shocker.