Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[kat5hurricane]

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

One last reminder....this isnt the nyc and east subforum. 

With all due respect, a lot of folks in this forum do live around the NYC area so what should we talk about?

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Should be a pretty impressive wind event at least 

The tucked in models would increase the coastal flooding/wind issues.

Someone could gust up to 60mph, which would cause outages combined with a few inches of paste/sleet.

[BxEngine]

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

With all due respect, a lot of folks in this forum do live around the NYC area so what should we talk about?

I didnt say anything about not talking. Declaring a storm over because it switches to rain in your particular area of the subforum is beyond obnoxious and ruins any chance at a decent discussion. Not to mention the whining is worse than my kids zoom school classes.

 

and fyi, im in the nyc area too. 

[billgwx]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It must be so cool to actually issue watches/warnings and then come on here and watch people bitch/complain about not getting the warning they wanted

Like being a pro athlete and tuning in to WFAN to hear similar

[NJwx85]

The 12z RGEM is actually not as bad as people are making it out to be. Yes the sleet/snow line makes it to about the Bergen/Rockland line but then the coastal takes over and most places West of the city get good backend snows.

 

 

[WarrenCtyWx]

Can someone post it?

[Brian5671]

Just now, WarrenCtyWx said:

Can someone post it?

[Northof78]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Is that the warmest panel?

[nycsnow]

Just now, Northof78 said:

Is that the warmest panel?

Those maps aren’t good the high quality ones (I don’t have access) actually are a lot better 

[billgwx]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

agree. i just wait for the maps to come out on the better sites to do an analysis. "rgem is nw!" doesn't do anything for me

Let's at least figure out why this is happening.

One storm sticks out in my mind where the NAM scored a warmer coup like this--March 2001. Global models stayed cold, NAM was the first to cast doubt with warmer profiles aloft, it ended up being right. Was at Mount Holly where we had warnings up, got a sloppy 1-3." Eastern Long Island still did very well though.

I've also seen the NAM go too far NW/warm, so it works both ways.

Consistency is key. If the 18Z run goes warm I'll buy it.

[NJwx85]

The dry slot magnified.

[Barman49]

[SnowGoose69]

The 3km NAM is so far west NYC might not even snow til 23-00Z so basically would be 3 hours of snow to sleet to rain lol

[kat5hurricane]

8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I didnt say anything about not talking. Declaring a storm over because it switches to rain in your particular area of the subforum is beyond obnoxious and ruins any chance at a decent discussion. Not to mention the whining is worse than my kids zoom school classes.

 

and fyi, im in the nyc area too. 

That's fair and I agree wholeheartedly with the whining which I kind of did in my last post.

[NJwx85]

This is probably the warmest panel on the RGEM.

[jbenedet]

51 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Geez, that dryslot would even shaft a good chunk of CT, RI and MA south of Boston. 

Why you would use the NAM for this analysis over the EPS/ GFS, is beyond me...

[nycsnow]

On higher quality maps a lot of area still sees around a foot metro area included.

[David-LI]

If the media hype was enough that I can get a day off from work , stay home enjoying a hot chocolate and building a snowman with the kids, then I’ll take my 2-4 inches if it comes to that. 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 3km NAM is so far west NYC might not even snow til 23-00Z so basically would be 3 hours of snow to sleet to rain lol

Late developing coastal which is always a worry with miller B's. Gives Boston more snow than NYC.

[donsutherland1]

At present, it still appears that New York City and nearby areas are in line for a 6"-12" snowfall (with some potential for more). For some perspective, New York City received a total of 4.8" snow for all of last winter (2019-2020).

Below are the 5 biggest December snowfalls in New York City over the past 10 years:

1. 20.0", December 26-27, 2010
2. 5.0", December 14, 2013
3. 4.6", December 9, 2017
4. 2.8", December 17, 2016
5. 1.6", December 2-3, 2019

[nycsnow]

even eastern Long Island sees 8-10

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

A lot of that in NNJ and LI is sleet.

[NJwx85]

Just now, nycsnow said:

even eastern Long Island sees 8-10

They call them clown maps for a reason....

A lot of that "snow" for the coast is sleet being incorrectly counted as snow with 10:1 ratios. 

[Juturna]

Just now, David-LI said:

If the media hype was enough that I can get a day off from work , stay home enjoying a hot chocolate and building a snowman with the kids, then I’ll take my 2-4 inches if it comes to that. 

You're not wrong. A snow day would be much appreciated, even if there ends up not being any snow IMBY (not that snow days truly exist with virtual teaching being an option now), still, one day not having to be around Covid kids is a bonus.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A lot of that in NNJ and LI is sleet.

 

[MJO812]

Alternate side parking is suspended Wednesday and Thursday 

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

If the media hype was enough that I can get a day off from work , stay home enjoying a hot chocolate and building a snowman with the kids, then I’ll take my 2-4 inches if it comes to that. 

Anything that gives us some enjoyment these days is welcome....but I'm retired now and can sit back and watch.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Why you would use the NAM for this analysis over the EPS/ GFS, is beyond me...

Are the west trends scaring you ?

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

State college to Albany to Concord NH for the win.  Yesterday they look to get skunked....

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, billgwx said:

Want to see other guidance as amped/warm as the 12Z NAM cycles before jumping on it. Latest parallel GFS looked similar at H5 but was cold...oh wait the GFS is often too cold aloft. Anyway, the NAM amplification yesterday didn't appear to be due to convective feedback. But the model's not consistent run-to-run, 12Z'ers amped/warm and the other cycles colder. All that said, I didn't entirely discount the warmer idea yesterday and threw in some south shore/east end mixing for Long Island.

It looks like one of the features on the v16 is a fix for the cold bias. Do you know if it’s still scheduled to go operational in February?

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/