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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

With all due respect, a lot of folks in this forum do live around the NYC area so what should we talk about?

I didnt say anything about not talking. Declaring a storm over because it switches to rain in your particular area of the subforum is beyond obnoxious and ruins any chance at a decent discussion. Not to mention the whining is worse than my kids zoom school classes.

 

and fyi, im in the nyc area too. 

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billgwx

billgwx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

agree. i just wait for the maps to come out on the better sites to do an analysis. "rgem is nw!" doesn't do anything for me

Let's at least figure out why this is happening.

One storm sticks out in my mind where the NAM scored a warmer coup like this--March 2001. Global models stayed cold, NAM was the first to cast doubt with warmer profiles aloft, it ended up being right. Was at Mount Holly where we had warnings up, got a sloppy 1-3." Eastern Long Island still did very well though.

I've also seen the NAM go too far NW/warm, so it works both ways.

Consistency is key. If the 18Z run goes warm I'll buy it.

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kat5hurricane

kat5hurricane

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I didnt say anything about not talking. Declaring a storm over because it switches to rain in your particular area of the subforum is beyond obnoxious and ruins any chance at a decent discussion. Not to mention the whining is worse than my kids zoom school classes.

 

and fyi, im in the nyc area too. 

That's fair and I agree wholeheartedly with the whining which I kind of did in my last post.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

At present, it still appears that New York City and nearby areas are in line for a 6"-12" snowfall (with some potential for more). For some perspective, New York City received a total of 4.8" snow for all of last winter (2019-2020).

Below are the 5 biggest December snowfalls in New York City over the past 10 years:

1. 20.0", December 26-27, 2010
2. 5.0", December 14, 2013
3. 4.6", December 9, 2017
4. 2.8", December 17, 2016
5. 1.6", December 2-3, 2019

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Juturna

Juturna

Posted
Posted
Just now, David-LI said:

If the media hype was enough that I can get a day off from work , stay home enjoying a hot chocolate and building a snowman with the kids, then I’ll take my 2-4 inches if it comes to that. 

You're not wrong. A snow day would be much appreciated, even if there ends up not being any snow IMBY (not that snow days truly exist with virtual teaching being an option now), still, one day not having to be around Covid kids is a bonus.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

If the media hype was enough that I can get a day off from work , stay home enjoying a hot chocolate and building a snowman with the kids, then I’ll take my 2-4 inches if it comes to that. 

Anything that gives us some enjoyment these days is welcome....but I'm retired now and can sit back and watch.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, billgwx said:

Want to see other guidance as amped/warm as the 12Z NAM cycles before jumping on it. Latest parallel GFS looked similar at H5 but was cold...oh wait the GFS is often too cold aloft. Anyway, the NAM amplification yesterday didn't appear to be due to convective feedback. But the model's not consistent run-to-run, 12Z'ers amped/warm and the other cycles colder. All that said, I didn't entirely discount the warmer idea yesterday and threw in some south shore/east end mixing for Long Island.

It looks like one of the features on the v16 is a fix for the cold bias. Do you know if it’s still scheduled to go operational in February?

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

3F516E8A-0DB4-462C-85AB-9901DD4BD3A8.thumb.png.7ca0c00e530945d2f8ff5b8a02af9fd8.png

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