Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[bluewave]

The models are more tucked in with the low than just a few days ago. The ridge east of New England is a little stronger. This has been a recent theme. So the trough goes neg tilt quicker allowing mixing issues to arise after the initial front end thump.

New run

Old run

[SleetStormNJ]

NAM is really kind of on it's own with just how extreme it's pushing the slot and best dynamics NW.  GFS is also kind of on it's own with it's confluence/shunt to the East.

EURO/UKMET blend seems like a wise evaluation at this juncture.

 

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

It's not jumping ship. The trends have moved away from big snows at the coast, it's not just one run. 

As I said last night, this is looking like a quick 4-8 inch thump around the city. The forecasted 12+ inch amounts seem highly unrealistic unless you're 30-50 miles north of the city.

Which would be more in keeping with history. Honestly, these big totals really aren't normal for the NYC area, even in the dead of winter most years. We had some freakish winters in the 2000's. We've just seen two winters with hardly a flake. 3-6 will still be amazing. But of course, even that can fall apart, and I have seen that so many times...southeast winds, warm air aloft, etc all add up to not a big snow, or even any snow; could be all sleet. Seen it often, but it is usually better forecast than this. There have been too many calls for huge storms over the years for the city that just haven't come to fruition. That said, anything can still happen....

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Gfs is clueless. Nam might be too overdoing it but the trend is real. 

Confluence also seems to be leaving as the NAM brings in the storm which allows it to cut even further. Hopefully this is one of those overamped NAM runs. Verbatim that would probably be a few hour dumping of whatever then a dry slot from hell for many of us. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, JoshSnow said:

Tony few is 1-3. New York City isn’t getting 1-3

Maybe more like 4-8"

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I really hate the coast

Who would have thought inland areas was going to see alot ? People thought the high was going to suppress this storm. 

Yea it’s brutal to live at the coast. Great stretch 2010-2014 but other than that yuck. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Confluence also seems to be leaving as the NAM brings in the storm which allows it to cut even further. Hopefully this is one of those overamped NAM runs. Verbatim that would probably be a few hour dumping of whatever then a dry slot from hell for many of us. 

Yeah, this would be over by midnight Thursday if true

[nycsnow]

NYC struggles to reach advisory level snows on the nam. Lol the writings been on the wall with this for a day or so already.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This seems like the classic storm.

Snow  to dry slot

Few inches for the coast 

Watch the dew points tomorrow morning.

If they're really low (single digits) then it could mean the low will end up further offshore due to the strong press of the high north. 

We've seen last minute corrections east in these CAD setups. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Which would be more in keeping with history. Honestly, these big totals really aren't normal for the NYC area, even in the dead of winter most years. We had some freakish winters in the 2000's. We've just seen two winters with hardly a flake. 3-6 will still be amazing. But of course, even that can fall apart, and I have seen that so many times...southeast winds, warm air aloft, etc all add up to not a big snow, or even any snow; could be all sleet. Seen it often, but it is usually better forecast than this. There have been too many calls for huge storms over the years for the city that just haven't come to fruition. That said, anything can still happen....

It’d be hard not to get at least 3-6 unless the front end dump somehow doesn’t materialize but with waa ramming into a cold airmass I can almost guarantee at minimum a front end dump. 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, nycsnow said:

NYC struggles to reach advisory level snows on the nam. Lol the writings been on the wall with this for a day or so already.

Not really. Every other model run still showed 6+ for the city. 

[BxEngine]

Friendly reminder that this subforum consists of the entire metro area...including parts that are going to do well in this storm, and some that wont. 

[e46and2]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea it’s brutal to live at the coast. Great stretch 2010-2014 but other than that yuck. 

lol.  obviously said by someone who doesn't live on the coast.  we've dominated the decade here in the long island snowbelt of the north shore.

[weatherlogix]

1 minute ago, Torch said:

You saw that yesterday?

go back and find my post from last night....

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea it’s brutal to live at the coast. Great stretch 2010-2014 but other than that yuck. 

In my area we actually don't do well when the coast does; and also don't do well when NW does....the geography of the area near the mouth of the Raritan seems to miss out when the coast gets dumped on and the storms move east before getting to us; when storms are mostly NW ( in terms of snow ) and there is coastal influence, we are close enough for that mix line to cut our totals. Actually, this makes many people around here thankful....

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea it’s brutal to live at the coast. Great stretch 2010-2014 but other than that yuck. 

I'm not convinced it's amped like this NAM run and it's known to overdo things every once in a while but the trends down here aren't great. Hopefully the RGEM/Euro hold to their track or tick a little SE and the GFS holds. A 6" or so snow/sleetpack a week from now that froze into cement might not be the worst thing. The NAM verbatim though means 3-5" of garbage for most unless you're north of the Tappan Zee. 

[weatherbear5]

I’m going with 2-8 across Long Island with the front-end stuff, most in NW Suffolk and northern Nassau where there’s a little elevation, least along the immediate south shore and eastern Long Island

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, e46and2 said:

lol.  obviously said by someone who doesn't live on the coast.  we've dominated the decade here in the long island snowbelt of the north shore.

I have lived almost my whole life on the coast despite my name. You’re right north shore of LI has done really well in some events but I still stand by what I said. 

[BxEngine]

And thats enough of the coast/inland debate....

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

In my area we actually don't do well when the coast does; and also don't do well when NW does....the geography of the area near the mouth of the Raritan seems to miss out when the coast gets dumped on and the storms move east before getting to us; when storms are mostly NW ( in terms of snow ) and there is coastal influence, we are close enough for that mix line to cut our totals. Actually, this makes many people around here thankful....

That actually sounds like a snow lovers hell. I'd move.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch the dew points tomorrow morning.

If they're really low (single digits) then it could mean the low will end up further offshore due to the strong press of the high north. 

We've seen last minute corrections east in these CAD setups. 

We're really mostly concerned with the mid level lows not the surface low. If there's a strong 700mb low tracking through NE PA and the Hudson Valley, it won't matter much where the surface low is. It's a quick thump to a dryslot because dry/warm mid level air will be driven in from the south. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It’d be hard not to get at least 3-6 unless the front end dump somehow doesn’t materialize but with waa ramming into a cold airmass I can almost guarantee at minimum a front end dump. 

That seems likely. The initial burst will also cool things down significantly that could prolong the snows before warming takes over. 

Or maybe the Gfs still scores a huge hail mary victory. Wouldn't we all love that.

[Snowlover11]

While that nam run was down right depressing(south and east of the tappen zee) the nam DOES tend to over do things so’ll we will have to see other data come in.  If the gfs/euro holds about the same we all should do pretty well.

[North and West]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Geez, that dryslot would even shaft a good chunk of CT, RI and MA south of Boston. 

Dumb question: On this map where can you see the dryslot? Hypothetically, could you draw it on said map? Asking... for a friend.

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

While that nam run was down right depressing(south and east of the tappen zee) the nam DOES tend to over do things so’ll we will have to see other data come in.  If the gfs/euro holds about the same we all should do pretty well.

Agreed on NAM usuallu over amping and also can change big time run to run, but yet very concerned.....

 

[NJwx85]

3k NAM soundings show a really ugly dry layer around 700mb.

While the North trend has been real, still think that you're not getting a storm that far inland with this amount of blocking. 

And the NAM/GFS should have been taken out behind the barn years ago...

[hazwoper]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

While that nam run was down right depressing(south and east of the tappen zee) the nam DOES tend to over do things so’ll we will have to see other data come in.  If the gfs/euro holds about the same we all should do pretty well.

That's my thought even down here.  Lets see what the GFS shows.  If it caves completely this run, we may be in trouble.  Still high impact event.

[HVSnowLover]

Trying to have a glass half full perspective that at least no model is showing heavy rain. Snow to sleet to dry slot isn’t terrible but I know it’s so deflating when everyone has been expecting a blizzard. 

[MJO812]

My friend just came back from the supermarket. He said it was insanely packed .

The media loves driving people insane.

Lets hope for the rest of the models to come out good 

[Jt17]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Am I missing something? The most recent runs of the euro and gfs show 15+ inches for nyc with what I believe was no mixing issues. I understand the nam looks really messy, but the assertion that everything has trended to much smaller snow totals is simply false. The two major global models most recent runs say a huge storm is still possible.