Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Snowlover11]

nam mixes all the way to lower westchester county, this storm is fading faster than the mets chance at a world series

[HVSnowLover]

If NAM under 48 hours is showing big totals still up to the Southern Adirondacks it's over for the coast in terms of an all snow event. About to concede, I was wrong on this one. Looking like an I84-I90 jackpot. Still think the city especially Northern parts and the immediate suburbs do fairly well.

[weatherbear5]

Slowed down too much + confluence exiting = bad news for the coast

At this point, we hope that the front end dump is intense and anything after it is minimal. You can still get several inches of snow from this kinda thing, but it won’t be 12-18

Sad, this was looking so promising for so long

 

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

Is this a solid 12 hour or 12-18 hour event?

Do you see Blizzard warnings being hoisted later today or tomorrow?

Winds may not reach criteria for our region .

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

nam mixes all the way to lower westchester county, this storm is fading faster than the mets chance at a world series

Yesterday worried about confluence and northern fringe areas of the subforum and NAM now has precip up the Canadian border. What a trend...

[White Gorilla]

I still think NYC and surrounding except E LI will get at least a foot.  The cold high means business.  Keeping fingers crossed that everyone on this forum gets at least 10 inches.  God knows we are due after last year, but I take nothing for granted.  Getting high snow like this a week before Christmas is very infrequent.  I am going to savor this! 

[jm1220]

The more amped trough probably does mean a lousy mid level lows setup and more warmth aloft though, so... maybe just a bigger area of sleet where the surface temps stay too cold for rain. 

[Juturna]

Everyone jumping ship from one run to the next

[MJO812]

We need a south tick. Nam only has a few inches now in the city due to the dry slot.

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yesterday worried about confluence and northern fringe areas of the subforum and NAM now has precip up the Canadian border. What a trend...

Without this confluence this almost certainly would be a cutter and most of us would be all rain. In a Nina this is what happens. Every storm will try to cut due to the SE ridge. 

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, sferic said:

looking good for me. you, me and @snywx

Someone across CPA probably steals our jack and gets the 2' but I think we're good to go for 12-18. 

 

1 minute ago, snywx said:

Winds may not reach criteria for our region .

I don't think gusts get over 30. My point and click for tomorrow night is 10-15 gusts 25. Power issues should be quite limited but nonzero--we can be thankful the ratios will be good here.

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need a south tick. Nam only has a few inches now in the city due to the dry slot.

Could be too amped and you all still have time for SE ticks.  GFS still shows NYC jacking. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Without this confluence this almost certainly would be a cutter and most of us would be all rain. In a Nina this is what happens. Every storm will try to cut due to the SE ridge. 

Its honestly amazing given recent trends that the 32 degree line is still basically over the city. That shows the power of this high.

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Certainly hope you're right. We definitely could see a tick back SE today hopefully for the reasons you mention. 

But even the amped models aren't all that bad for the NYC area especially. 6z NAM is about 12" in NYC (which actually is more snow than 0z run had), but the 700mb low goes north which means a huge initial thump to a dryslot. Much of the period that would coincide with mixing would be light precip in the dryslot, and then some snow as the low leaves. 6z RGEM also about a foot in NYC, 6z Euro about the same? The cold dry air should be our savior for at least that heavy initial thump, and the mid levels don't look horrible unless the WAA there is being underdone (which is possible). 

The big winner though is shaping up to be central PA to perhaps the I-84 corridor where that 700 low track means a heavy high ratio snow band forms and pivots there. Trying to think of the last time State College PA had over 20" in a storm-may have been March 3, 1994. 

January 2016.

Still a good analog in my view. We have a warmer version of this... Shift everything ~50 miles northwest..

[Rjay]

H7 low was so far west this run 

[Rjay]

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Its honestly amazing given recent trends that the 32 degree line is still basically over the city. That shows the power of this high.

Yeah unfortunately though the more amped trough means a lousy setup aloft. Quick dryslot and warmer mid levels I would guess. The fun few hour thump can hopefully still happen here but looks like a good amount of sleet gets pounded in or it really is just a few hours to the dryslot. 

[Northof78]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

January 2016.

Still a good analog in my view. We have a warmer version of this... Shift everything ~50 miles northwest..

Agreed, extremely similar to this storm with a ~ 30-50 mile shift north...

[weatherlogix]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need a south tick. Nam only has a few inches now in the city due to the dry slot.

like i said yesterday....3-5" and then sleet and dry slot - for sure for my area in Nassau Cty.

[jm1220]

Just now, Rjay said:

Geez, that dryslot would even shaft a good chunk of CT, RI and MA south of Boston. 

[weathermedic]

Quote

New moon high tide already causing water to cover the roads along the southern Queens/Nassau back bays. I just went through Brookville Blvd which had about a foot of water on it in the lowest lying spot. Think there will be some moderate coastal flooding with the storm during high tide.

 

[weatherbear5]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

H7 low was so far west this run 

Yup. The confluence exited stage right. Without that, there was nothing to prevent the stronger shortwave from raising heights ahead of it.

Only hope is a hellacious front-end dump

[Allsnow]

Disgusting nam run if you want big snow around the metro. It’s either on to something or it will correct as we get closer 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Geez, that dryslot would even shaft a good chunk of CT, RI and MA south of Boston. 

It would also bring sleet into far NWNJ and the Hudson Valley and shut off snow growth in the Poconos.

[Juturna]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Disgusting nam run if you want big snow around the metro. It’s either on to something or it will correct as we get closer 

I'll wait for some consistency before jumping the ledge after one run.

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Juturna said:

I'll wait for some consistency before jumping the ledge after one run.

honestly the last day everything has been pushing NW. so its really not one run.

[kat5hurricane]

18 minutes ago, Juturna said:

Everyone jumping ship from one run to the next

It's not jumping ship. The trends have moved away from big snows at the coast, it's not just one run. 

As I said last night, this is looking like a quick 4-8 inch thump around the city then dryslot or switch to sleet or drizzle. The forecasted 12+ inch amounts seem highly unrealistic unless you're 30-50 miles north of the city.

[MJO812]

I really hate the coast

Who would have thought inland areas was going to see alot ? People thought the high was going to suppress this storm. 

[Juturna]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

honestly the last day everything has been pushing NW. so its really not one run.

Not nearly to that extent.

[HVSnowLover]

16 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Could be too amped and you all still have time for SE ticks.  GFS still shows NYC jacking. 

Gfs is clueless. Nam might be too overdoing it but the trend is real.