Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[shadowsintherain]

We still have a full day's worth of model runs tomorrow. Don't commit suicide yet! (I know the trend is not our friend here.) But, we have seen this happen before where the models corrected again at the last minute. One can only hope. 

 

[Snowlover11]

6-12” snowstorm is nothing to sneeze at honestly, if your in central/southern nj and or eastern tip of li, yeah you have issues, but thats always the case.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

6-12” snowstorm is nothing to sneeze at honestly, if your in central/southern nj and or eastern tip of li, yeah you have issues, but thats always the case.

Especially after last winter

[KeithB]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

If you're in Pomona you should do really well with this one. 

Yes. But even up here I am starting to worry about dry slotting, getting  9-12 and and seeing Orange and Sullivan counties get the 16-24 inch jackpots

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Especially after last winter

In many times, we’d be thrilled with 6-12”. We got spoiled with that series of big snows. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, KeithB said:

Yes. But even up here I am starting to worry about dry slotting, getting  9-12 and and seeing Orange and Sullivan counties get the 16-24 inch jackpots

It's possible I guess but a foot is still a damn good storm. 

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Welp there goes our snowstorm, ugh I guess the PNA will kill us after all. 

If models keep trending west it'll be a couple hours of snow to rain.

It’s supposed to start in like 36 hours so I doubt they’ll be much more trending

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

6-12” snowstorm is nothing to sneeze at honestly, if your in central/southern nj and or eastern tip of li, yeah you have issues, but thats always the case.

Agree, despite the panicking no models have the rain line into the city. 6-12 inches and then dry slot isn’t awful. 

[weatherlogix]

This is a 3-5" snow to sleet to dry slot special, at least based on tonight's modeLing

NYC-east

[jm1220]

Euro wasn’t terrible verbatim. The trend wasn’t good but cold air hangs around for most of the precip near the city. It still drops a foot or so in the city as is, assuming 10-1 ratio. I’ve been saying for days the low would try to hug and cut north, the confluence would have to work to force it east. If the upper air low comes in more vigorous and the confluence can’t compensate this is what happens. But honestly a hellacious front end thump to lighter precip that could be a mix in the dryslot might not be the worst. Won’t be the 20” weenie area north of the 700 low track but it’s not a quick slop to rain event either. 

[jm1220]

And I think fairly safe to say now the GFS is out to lunch like usual and will trend north soon. 

[Snowlover11]

gfs wont catch up till tomorrow afternoon(if it even does)

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

This is a 3-5" snow to sleet to dry slot special, at least based on tonight's modeLing

NYC-east

Given it's still trending NW I'm thinking it'll be a couple hours of snow to sleet to rain with a coastal hugger up to the city. 

Huge storm for SNE.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

This is a 3-5" snow to sleet to dry slot special, at least based on tonight's modeLing

NYC-east

More than that 

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Given it's still trending NW I'm thinking it'll be a couple hours of snow to sleet to rain with a coastal hugger up to the city. 

Huge storm for SNE.

I don’t agree that it will be THAT NW. I still think NYC gets into decent snowfall. It will take a while to pin down where the rain/mix line sets up.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Given it's still trending NW I'm thinking it'll be a couple hours of snow to sleet to rain with a coastal hugger up to the city. 

Huge storm for SNE.

Dude you just said yesterday the storm will trend way south. Make up your mind.

No way this is a hugger

[MJO812]

Tomorrow will be interesting

Lets hope for southeast ticks

I think 6-12 is a good call for NYC with less in Eastern LI .

I'm going with 4-8 for my area in south Brooklyn. 

What can help increase totals ?

Earlier arrival

Snow bands on us

East track

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Dude you just said yesterday the storm will trend way south. Make up your mind.

No way this is a hugger

Models keep trending north. I thought the blocking would be enough but it doesn't look like it. 

The north trend was my fear a couple days ago but then models went a bit east and now they're way NW. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models keep trending north. I thought the blocking would be enough but it doesn't look like it. 

The north trend was my fear a couple days ago but then models went a bit east and now they're way NW. 

They arent way nw. Nyc is fine .

 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models keep trending north. I thought the blocking would be enough but it doesn't look like it. 

The north trend was my fear a couple days ago but then models went a bit east and now they're way NW. 

The big high should at least be enough to keep cold air in place long enough to make for a fun few hour thump to start that would mean half a foot or more anyway. By the time it warms up the precip is mostly over on the front end of the storm. And maybe it’s not done trending but for the city and even much of the island 90% of what fell on that Euro run was snow. I’m not too surprised, you have a stronger wave coming in you’ll see an amped NW trend. In a moderate Nina like this we need blocking with any storm since they will try to cut. 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The big high should at least be enough to keep cold air in place long enough to make for a fun few hour thump to start that would mean half a foot or more anyway. By the time it warms up the precip is mostly over on the front end of the storm. And maybe it’s not done trending but for the city and even much of the island 90% of what fell on that Euro run was snow. I’m not too surprised, you have a stronger wave coming in you’ll see an amped NW trend. In a moderate Nina like this we need blocking with any storm since they will try to cut. 

Mid levels should warm quickly though so it could be like an inch to sleet that gets washed away by rain. 

I think you'd be right if we didn't have a full day of runs continuing to trend north.

[mattinpa]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Mid levels should warm quickly though so it could be like an inch to sleet that gets washed away by rain. 

I think you'd be right if we didn't have a full day of runs continuing to trend north.

But you don’t know they will continue to go north. Perhaps the blocking even makes it go a bit south tomorrow. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

But you don’t know they will continue to go north. Perhaps the blocking even makes it go a bit south tomorrow. 

Agree

[shadowsintherain]

If this corrects south again tomorrow, it's gonna be bedlam in here! lol Good night all. Here's to the south trend returning at the last second!

[TriPol]

The GFS was right all along.

[wizard021]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

The GFS was right all along.

Correct 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

The GFS was right all along.

Maybe

[shadowsintherain]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe

Agreed. We should all know that you can never take anything to the bank, even from less than 48hrs to go. Trends are important, but, they aren't gospel until the storm hits us and they actually verify. Keep the faith!

[Rtd208]

Winter Storm Warning now in effect here for snowfall accumulations in excess of 12" expected.

[MJO812]

[Nibor]