Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

The difference between the GFS and the UKie is absurd.

Yup, and snow could start in NYC metro in about 36 hours or so. 

[Rjay]

Just now, USCG RS said:

Yeah, what Doorman was hinting at last night and what has been a concern of mine for the past couple of days.

No it wasn't.  If you reread what he said he didn't actually say anything, like usual.  

[USCG RS]

Just now, Rjay said:

No it wasn't.  If you reread what he said he didn't actually say anything, like usual.  

Eh, maybe I was just seeing something vague and interpreting it how I wanted to. Gets the job done though 

[jdj5211]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice for NYC west.  I thought it would be more.

Onto the Euro 

That run taken verbatim would absolutely dump more than 14-16 inches in NNJ for sure. With that QPF output and temp profile there’s no way it’s a 7 or 8-1 ratio. More like 10 or 12-1 which would support 20-24 inch amounts. 

[Rjay]

Just now, USCG RS said:

Eh, maybe I was just seeing something vague and interpreting it how I wanted to. Gets the job done though 

Hairy piglet

Mashed potato sundae 

Fire and ice 

1004mb low

 

Best 

Tommy E

[Nibor]

Just now, Rjay said:

Hairy piglet

Mashed potato sundae 

Fire and ice 

1004mb low

 

Best 

Tommy E

Someone PM BxEngine, doorman's hacked Rjay's account.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I think the GFS is out to lunch. The Nam, rgem, CMC and ukie all seem to be focusing on moving the heaviest snow further north. Looking more and more like warmer air and/or a dry slot cutting down on the totals at the coast after a good initial thump. 12-18 seems like a bit of a pipedream for the city now if trends continue.

Watch the Euro come up with a different solution now to throw it all out of whack just when it looks like a consensus starting to form.

There isn't any consensus right now 

[weatherbear5]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Hairy piglet

Mashed potato sundae 

Fire and ice 

1004mb low

 

Best 

Tommy E

No italics. 6/10 impression

[MJO812]

Ukie wind gusts

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Hairy piglet

Mashed potato sundae 

Fire and ice 

1004mb low

 

Best 

Tommy E

a 1004 mb low will rain down fire and Ice while pigs fly because it is armageddon and the music is playing (the best of Tommy E) as the ship sinks. ANDDDD the mashed potato sundae is our last meal. 

See. Got it.

[Snowlover11]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm on the border of 15 and 6 lol

tight gradient once you go south and east of nyc verbatim.

[Snowlover11]

euro rolling!

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, SI Mailman said:

Got it.  The actual NAM model soundings at h51 were all comfortably below freezing at all levels above the immediate surface (where they were 32 or 33)..  Not sure how that map is calculated since the model soundings should drive what's drawn on the map and there is no way to derive sleet or zr from the sounding..

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

euro rolling!

So far more confluence  through 18

[HeadInTheClouds]

Euro hugging that Jersey coast and farther north. 

[weatherbear5]

Warmer than 18z

[HVSnowLover]

Euro is NW, GFS on its own planet now.  

[Nibor]

[wizard021]

Just now, Nibor said:

nyc is in a good position, euro is always nw . I am going gfs all the way. 

[KeithB]

Just when I thought the EURO was going to cave to the GFS, it goes north again 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Basically All models have that nasty dry slot now over NYC on the plus side it doesnt change to rain at least. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

All the models ticked farther N and W at 00z except the GooFuS. 

[jdj5211]

Not a fan of this euro run. That low is way too close to the coast 

[kat5hurricane]

The trends are obvious. This is an interior snowstorm and likely one of those 4-8 inch front end thump to snizzle type deals at the coast, seen it happen many times. GFS will correct towards the other models, as usual.

[KeithB]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

The trends are obvious. This is an interior snowstorm and likely one of those 4-8 inch front end thump to snizzle type deals at the coast, seen it happen many times. GFS will correct towards the other models, as usual.

Sadly, this is probably true

[Edubbs83]

I’ll take 4-8 if it’s not washed away 

[HVSnowLover]

Hopefully it trends back a touch SE tomorrow, if not congrats interior but still 6-10 inches for the city. Would be similar to November 2018 with snow coming in like a wall. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, KeithB said:

Sadly, this is probably true

If you're in Pomona you should do really well with this one. 

[SnoSki14]

Welp there goes our snowstorm, ugh I guess the PNA will kill us after all. 

If models keep trending west it'll be a couple hours of snow to rain.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

nyc is in a good position, euro is always nw . I am going gfs all the way. 

We will see tomorrow