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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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jdj5211

jdj5211

Posted
Posted

So we're about 36 hours from the storm and we generally have no idea what's going to happen?  And by that I mean, who is getting shafted, where the heaviest precip falls, is there a dry slot, is there a jackpot zone?  Is that fair to say.....IMBY I've had anywhere from 6 inches to 29 inches the past 2 days of runs....

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

So we're about 36 hours from the storm and we generally have no idea what's going to happen?  And by that I mean, who is getting shafted, where the heaviest precip falls, is there a dry slot, is there a jackpot zone?  Is that fair to say.....

Pretty much the case for every major storm 

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

Posted
Posted
Just now, jdj5211 said:

So we're about 36 hours from the storm and we generally have no idea what's going to happen?  And by that I mean, who is getting shafted, where the heaviest precip falls, is there a dry slot, is there a jackpot zone?  Is that fair to say.....

Yup this is a nowcast event for I-95. My call is 5-20". That should about cover it haha. For trenton I'm calling 8-14" but that could easily fall apart. The mixing line cutoff is going to be brutal. 

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nflwxman

nflwxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

So we're about 36 hours from the storm and we generally have no idea what's going to happen?  And by that I mean, who is getting shafted, where the heaviest precip falls, is there a dry slot, is there a jackpot zone?  Is that fair to say.....

I don't think I've ever seen a dry slot location modeled correctly 40 hours before the a winter storm. If you see one modeled over your house on one of the mesos 12 hours before game time, then there may be cause to worry. These are very dynamic events laden with moisture. 

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Yup this is a nowcast event for I-95. My call is 5-20". That should about cover it haha. For trenton I'm calling 8-14" but that could easily fall apart. The mixing line cutoff is going to be brutal. 

It’s a nowcast event everywhere given how tight the gradient between the mix line and the sharp northern cutoff is. I’d agree at this point with 5-20 inches area wide as a forecast 

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weatherlogix

weatherlogix

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Gfs looks good for us, lock it in.

Only consistent model. The Canadian suite it like watching a show stoned and throwing darts. Worthless. This is going to be ugly for a lot of people who don't live at a higher elevation if the GFS is wrong.

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MJO812

MJO812

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Posted
4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Not good trends for those of us near the coast tonight outside of the GFS, good for the LHV and northeast PA. If the Euro shifts north tonight, could be trouble.

Trends aren't good ?

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

gfs sucks, the cmc dryslots nyc.....

Still gives us near a foot.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
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1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

Only consistent model. The Canadian suite it like watching a show stoned and throwing darts. Worthless. This is going to be ugly for a lot of people who don't live at a higher elevation if the GFS is wrong.

The GFS almost always consistently does this with these events though, it’s just consistently wrong .  The Euro has probably been the most consistent of all minus that wild 06Z run it had last night   

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Only consistent model. The Canadian suite it like watching a show stoned and throwing darts. Worthless. This is going to be ugly for a lot of people who don't live at a higher elevation if the GFS is wrong.

The cmc had been very consistent until this run bumped a bit further west

 

***this run not included in the gif

 

83fe1959-51af-4e8a-89cd-2c25a059ee78.gif

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