Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[NorthShoreWx]

9 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event.

 

[MJO812]

Rgem

[weatherlogix]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

Not to drag this off topic anymore but much of the state of PA had 8-12". Not saying that's an analog or any of these storms, but it's definitely possible to have heavy snow in Central PA, southern NYS and here. 

8-12"? The NAM is showing ~30". Are we speaking the same language. No storm except like March 1958 had a big show in central PA that also gave this area in the teens in inches. Feb 1958 same deal. But they are few and very far between

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Rgem

Keeps trending NW with the best totals but  RGEM can be over amped at this range 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem

Looks just about exactly like 18z to me. Looking more likely that this central PA to W CT jackpot band is legit.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Keeps trending NW with the best totals but  RGEM can be over amped at this range 

It came south from 18z

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks just about exactly like 18z to me. Looking more likely that this central PA to W CT jackpot band is legit.

Too bad we can't get into those bands . You never know where those bands will set up until the storm happens.

[Northof78]

RGEM actually has all of LI over a foot, just a weird dry slot over the city...

[BuildingScienceWx]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Keeps trending NW with the best totals but  RGEM can be over amped at this range 

I'd have to agree with that. Very similar to 0Z Nam where there is an axis of heaviest snow right to the north of the H700 low. It's going to be key to get that south a bit in future runs. I like where we are though right now as confluence will likely keep flexing.

[Snowlover11]

RGEM actually ticked south, not by much though.

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

Actually wait, wasn’t that in March 2003?


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March 2001

The discussion that started it all:

http://www.northshorewx.com/HPC20010302.html

 And the ultra-modern 2001 hi-tech graphics:

 

 

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Too bad we can't get into those bands . You never know where those bands will set up until the storm happens.

There'll very likely be a weenie deform band just north of the 700 low track. Lots of sustained strong lift there and good ratios. 

[weatherlogix]

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

 

It was 2 separate storms. The overrunning gave central PA their snow. The setup isn't anything like that. That was like a 60 hour storm

[riverrat]

I think Forky once said a long time ago that where the 700mb vv's are greatest is where the best banding will be. I could be wrong though. 

[Barman49]

I wonder if the NAM & RGEM are doing a last minute jump and tomorrow they bounce back.  They really are NW and you'd think they would be more SE with the HP.  We'll see tomorrow if it's an over correction or not.  At least we got snow.

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

It was 2 separate storms. The overrunning gave central PA their snow. The setup isn't anything like that

Wasn't inferring it was an analog.  Not sure there are many analogs for this one (as modeled) , but there are certainly examples where both areas got hit hard.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

I wonder if the NAM & RGEM are doing a last minute jump and tomorrow they bounce back.  They really are NW and you'd think they would be more SE with the HP.  We'll see tomorrow if it's an over correction or not.  At least we got snow.

They aren't really all that NW. GFS is a somewhat suppressed outlier.

[HeadInTheClouds]

00z Scorecard IMBY

Nam - 21

RGEM - 22

GFS - awaiting my 3 inches 

[Rjay]

15 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

RGEM actually has all of LI over a foot, just a weird dry slot over the city...

H7 low

[Barman49]

They aren't really all that NW. GFS is a somewhat suppressed outlier.

The 3k backed into Delaware around hr 51 and the RGEM is north of AC. That's NW of the other models.

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[hudsonvalley21]

Some porn.

[weatherlogix]

34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

Not to drag this off topic anymore but much of the state of PA had 8-12". Not saying that's an analog or any of these storms, but it's definitely possible to have heavy snow in Central PA, southern NYS and here. 

I will give you Feb 1961. I would think it's a fairly good analog. Probably the best one out there with this weak a surface low

[White Gorilla]

29 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

00z Scorecard IMBY

Nam - 21

RGEM - 22

GFS - awaiting my 3 inches 

I am awaiting cirrus from GFS 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

I am awaiting cirrus from GFS 

Gfs not budging 

[jdj5211]

GFS kinda ugly...

Philly gets 20 inches....while other models have major dry slot into Philly with a few inches....you can't make it up really...

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Gfs not budging 

Last 12 runs

 

[friedmators]

GFS is a CNJ JP.

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I am awaiting cirrus from GFS 

I was wrong, we got 4. 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Just now, friedmators said:

GFS is a CNJ JP.

Please just let us have this just one lol. It's been years since I saw more than 2" of snow haha

[wizard021]

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

GFS is a CNJ JP.

Have been saying tthat.