MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Soundings look comfortably all snow over NYC on 0Z/h51 Nam. What are you looking at? I think he means the south shore. Its sleet but the Nam just came south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: Soundings look comfortably all snow over NYC on 0Z/h51 Nam. What are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I think both the NAM & 3K are having some kind of issues. The output doesn't make sense on the NAM and the 3k moves west around hour 50. I wouldn't put much stock into it with either at this range. If they do this tomorrow it would be more of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: 700 low is near us. Need it further south but this is most likely snow. 2 minutes ago, Torch said: Didn’t the nam do the same thing in 2016 leading up to the event. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, SI Mailman said: It's snow all around that one little blob that goes away on the next frame. Probably not really sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM crushes the whole area except Jersey Coast. This was not a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k vs 12k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: He is right but everyone wins It's not a good run for LI at a minimum...but I suspect a much larger area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: This was not a good run What’s wrong with it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: What’s wrong with it? This run was further south with everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: 3k I don’t see why the band In pa would dry up so much with a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Dang if only we had more of a PNA those crazy totals in PA would've been over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 You guys tell me the last time central PA and South Central NYS had a big snowstorm and it snowed for real here on LI. Something ain't right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: 3k On the 3k like the 12k much of this is a front end thump. By 6z, it gets above 0C at 800mb on LI and probably NYC very briefly but it's barely precipitating (what's falling would be sleet). Something of a CCB comes through and cools the column back down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Dang if only we had more of a PNA those crazy totals in PA would've been over our area. mayor lindsay storm and 1979 pd1 had no pna... pna doesn''t mean anything if energy can go underneath a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: You guys tell me the last time central PA and South Central NYS had a big snowstorm and it snowed for real here on LI. Something ain't right. It's either wrong about how fast West those 24"+ totals are, or its wrong about places anywhere around or east of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: You guys tell me the last time central PA and South Central NYS had a big snowstorm and it snowed for real here on LI. Something ain't right. Jan 2016, Presidents Day 2003, 12/5/03 among others? A huge deformation band forms and pivots starting in South Central PA and drives north into W CT. That's the best place per the mid level dynamics and mid level low tracks on the Nam. Because those tracks are more lousy down here we get most of what we have from the initial warm air advection and then the leftover CCB coming east. Also it warms aloft: per soundings we wouldn't lose much to sleet-but would be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, weatherlogix said: It's either wrong about how fast West those 24"+ totals are, or its wrong about places anywhere around or east of I-95 The confluence is very strong, rarely do storms track due east which would explain how central PA and LI could both do well. I’m skeptical of heavy snow making into south central NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Rgem looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Does anyone have info ( graphics) on a major snowstorm from Dec 25/26th 2002 and a week later another one one Jan 3rd 2003? Thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wizard021 said: mayor lindsay storm and 1979 pd1 had no pna... pna doesn''t mean anything if energy can go underneath a block. A PNA would force this storm further east. The block is strong but not strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Problem is really the dryslot this run for NYC and east. The 700mb low track should be a little further SE. It looks like a 3-5 hour crazy thump up front, light snow/sleet/mix in that dryslot, then whatever can come from the CCB as it slides east. There's 1-1.5" liquid for this area but 2"+ in a band from Torrington CT to State College, PA. That's where the huge totals would be. Precisely. NAM soundings IMBY show snow through hour 54. Then light sleet with a little drizzle for an hour or so after that and back to all snow for the duration. The mixed precip occurs with the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Jan 2016, Presidents Day 2003, 12/5/03 among others? A huge deformation band forms and pivots starting in South Central PA and drives north into W CT. That's the best place per the mid level dynamics and mid level low tracks on the Nam. Because those tracks are more lousy down here we get most of what we have from the initial warm air advection and then the leftover CCB coming east. Also it warms aloft: per soundings we wouldn't lose much to sleet-but would be close. Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analogAhh, yes. The Pamela Anderson storm? ;-)Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com) Not to drag this off topic anymore but much of the state of PA had 8-12". Not saying that's an analog or any of these storms, but it's definitely possible to have heavy snow in Central PA, southern NYS and here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ahh, yes. The Pamela Anderson storm? ;-)Sent from my iPad using TapatalkActually wait, wasn’t that in March 2003?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: It's either wrong about how fast West those 24"+ totals are, or its wrong about places anywhere around or east of I-95 I say screw zone is south of Elizabeth and east of Edison, because live there, however every one of these events brings me the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog Not to mention 2003 was a closed low as was 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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