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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


wdrag
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1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

You guys tell me the last time central PA and South Central NYS had a big snowstorm and it snowed for real here on LI. Something ain't right.

It's either wrong about how fast West those 24"+ totals are, or its wrong about places anywhere around or east of I-95

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1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

You guys tell me the last time central PA and South Central NYS had a big snowstorm and it snowed for real here on LI. Something ain't right.

Jan 2016, Presidents Day 2003, 12/5/03 among others? 

A huge deformation band forms and pivots starting in South Central PA and drives north into W CT. That's the best place per the mid level dynamics and mid level low tracks on the Nam. Because those tracks are more lousy down here we get most of what we have from the initial warm air advection and then the leftover CCB coming east. Also it warms aloft: per soundings we wouldn't lose much to sleet-but would be close. 

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Just now, weatherlogix said:

It's either wrong about how fast West those 24"+ totals are, or its wrong about places anywhere around or east of I-95

The confluence is very strong, rarely do storms track due east which would explain how central PA and LI could both do well. I’m skeptical of heavy snow making into south central NY. 

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Problem is really the dryslot this run for NYC and east. The 700mb low track should be a little further SE. It looks like a 3-5 hour crazy thump up front, light snow/sleet/mix in that dryslot, then whatever can come from the CCB as it slides east. There's 1-1.5" liquid for this area but 2"+ in a band from Torrington CT to State College, PA. That's where the huge totals would be. 

Precisely.  NAM soundings IMBY show snow through hour 54.  Then light sleet with a little drizzle for an hour or so after that and back to all snow for the duration.  The mixed precip occurs with the dryslot.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Jan 2016, Presidents Day 2003, 12/5/03 among others? 

A huge deformation band forms and pivots starting in South Central PA and drives north into W CT. That's the best place per the mid level dynamics and mid level low tracks on the Nam. Because those tracks are more lousy down here we get most of what we have from the initial warm air advection and then the leftover CCB coming east. Also it warms aloft: per soundings we wouldn't lose much to sleet-but would be close. 

Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA

I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog

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5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA

I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog

Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

Not to drag this off topic anymore but much of the state of PA had 8-12". Not saying that's an analog or any of these storms, but it's definitely possible to have heavy snow in Central PA, southern NYS and here. 

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14 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

It's either wrong about how fast West those 24"+ totals are, or its wrong about places anywhere around or east of I-95

I say screw zone is south of Elizabeth and east of Edison, because live there, however every one of these events brings me the screw zone.

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8 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Lol to the Dec 2003 mention. That was a NE event. And Jan 2016 show distribution looks ZERO like this in NYS or central PA

I'll give you Feb 2003, but that was mid winter with very low temps. But not really an analog

Not to mention 2003 was a closed low as was 2016

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