Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

NAM looks to be coming in better with thermals for marginal areas, HP looks better. 

[weatherbear5]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

NAM looks to be coming in better with thermals for marginal areas, HP looks better. 

If you look at the NAM and just run through the past several runs, the HP trends stronger and stronger each run

[jdj5211]

I was going to say, I'm only out to to HR 42?!

[HVSnowLover]

I'd be a little worried in Philly that the NAM is still showing that warm tongue at hour 48, I still think our area will be okay but sneaky warm layer could produce sleet for some.   

[Northof78]

NAM way south/colder and a bomb for many...

[Northof78]

[SI Mailman]

1 minute ago, Northof78 said:

NAM way south/colder and a bomb for many...

Thermals don't look good for the city at hr 51.  Sleet/Rain/Mix.  

[HVSnowLover]

NAM crushes the whole area except Jersey Coast. 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

Thermals don't look good for the city at hr 51.  Sleet/Rain/Mix.  

It has a random blob of sleet over the city surrounded by snow which I doubt would actually verify but possibly UHI? 

[Northof78]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

Thermals don't look good for the city at hr 51.  Sleet/Rain/Mix.  

850s at -6 or -7, maybe somewhere you can get some sleet from intensity...but overall hell of a run

[jm1220]

IDK, to me it looks more amped this run (not hugely but noticeable). I could definitely see how areas south of the city deal with sleet/rain for a time on this run. The 700 low looks to track maybe over or just north of the city, meaning warm air aloft will try to get in. 

[jm1220]

Just now, Northof78 said:

850s at -6 or -7, maybe somewhere you can get some sleet from intensity...but overall hell of a run

The warm air would come above 850mb, probably at 750-800mb. The 850 low track looks good so the warmth would come above that layer. 

That being said, the way the NAM evolves it could mean we all have an insane front end thump then sleet when the precip tapers down. By 9z there's a dryslot coming in. 

[Northof78]

Looks like 12” to 18” area wide...

[jm1220]

On second thought really not much change from 18z to me, maybe a bit more amped. 

[NJHurricane]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The warm air would come above 850mb, probably at 750-800mb. The 850 low track looks good so the warmth would come above that layer. 

That being said, the way the NAM evolves it could mean we all have an insane front end thump then sleet when the precip tapers down. By 9z there's a dryslot coming in. 

Front end thump is the real game for city on east right now IMO.

[friedmators]

3k is warmmm

[jm1220]

On the snow maps it does look like sleet cuts down accums for the city on south/east. The 10-1 map has 10" for the city

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

On second thought really not much change from 18z to me, maybe a bit more amped. 

A tad deeper and a tad closer to coast as it comes north. There will be big numbers again. 

[Northof78]

1.5” to 2.0” for most of the region....

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

On the snow maps it does look like sleet cuts down accums for the city on south/east. The 10-1 map has 10" for the city

Nam sometimes is good at picking mid level warmth but it’s still a little out of range for our area. Either way 10 inches isn’t tragic.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

On the snow maps it does look like sleet cuts down accums for the city on south/east. The 10-1 map has 10" for the city

It does with temps below freezing 

[friedmators]

[jm1220]

Problem is really the dryslot this run for NYC and east. The 700mb low track should be a little further SE. It looks like a 3-5 hour crazy thump up front, light snow/sleet/mix in that dryslot, then whatever can come from the CCB as it slides east. There's 1-1.5" liquid for this area but 2"+ in a band from Torrington CT to State College, PA. That's where the huge totals would be. 

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Is it done at 60? Qpf seems low for metro area. 

[Barman49]

The 3K is doing something weird.  The low goes west between 51 & 54.  Feedback issues or something.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Problem is really the dryslot this run for NYC and east. The 700mb low track should be a little further SE. It looks like a 3-5 hour crazy thump up front, light snow/sleet/mix in that dryslot, then whatever can come from the CCB as it slides east. There's 1-1.5" liquid for this area but 2"+ in a band from Torrington CT to State College, PA. That's where the huge totals would be. 

Better low position. Hopefully the Nam resolves the upper levels soon.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Is it done at 60? Qpf seems low for metro area. 

3k only goes out to 60. 

[NorthShoreWx]

21 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Thermals don't look good for the city at hr 51.  Sleet/Rain/Mix.  

Soundings look comfortably all snow over NYC on 0Z/h51 Nam.  What are you looking at?

 

Edit Soundings indicate a brief mix with IP around hour 53, then all snow again afterwards.  Maybe an hour of mix, but not at hour 51.

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Problem is really the dryslot this run for NYC and east. The 700mb low track should be a little further SE. It looks like a 3-5 hour crazy thump up front, light snow/sleet/mix in that dryslot, then whatever can come from the CCB as it slides east. There's 1-1.5" liquid for this area but 2"+ in a band from Torrington CT to State College, PA. That's where the huge totals would be. 

Most models other than gfs show the best banding nw of the city. Might make sense the best banding will be a little south of the sharp cutoff. 

[shadowsintherain]

How bad are the winds on this run?


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