Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s rare for a winter storm to tuck in west of Cape May and eject almost due east like that. I can’t remember the last time the snowfall gradient between Philly and ACY was so sharp. Unusual combination of a Miller B and a 930s mb 50/50 vortex. That may be one of the deepest 50/50 lows on record.

 

Yep. Thank goodness we have that there or this is an easy washout. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, JoshSnow said:

With a tight gradient like that, NYC could get 2-4 inch/hour when the storm tries to push up north. It’s going to get really interesting how north that precip pushes. The best spot for this storm in my opinion is Larchmont, NY. You’re going to get enhanced ocean snow effect from the sound and it’ll be cold enough to be all snow. Also that tight gradient is going to create some crazy banding somewhere around that area.

Yea I think westchester county in general in an amazing spot with this storm

[SnowGoose69]

I don't have upper or mids yet but the 06Z panel Thu AM from the Euro sure looks like mixing must get real close...it seems juicier in the 06-12Z panel this run than the 12Z run was 

[David-LI]

18z euro clown map anyone?

[liwxfan]

 North shore of Long Island is a great spot to be.

[jm1220]

Just now, liwxfan said:

 North shore of Long Island is a great spot to be.

Becoming cautiously optimistic for here but won’t take much to bring the mix line through to the sound. Seems as if it may be more an issue SW of here since the low hasn’t developed enough by the time it gets to PHL-TTN? 

[friedmators]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

18z euro clown map anyone?

 

[crossbowftw3]

19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

That’s a tight gradient both north and south of the city.

0z is going to be huge for us north of 84.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, friedmators said:

 

As amazing as this map looks it’s sort of hard to buy these totals given short duration of storm although I guess crazy intense rates at night helps.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Banding could do that I guess as the storm gets tight roped by the high and it ejects east. This storm looks to last from 18-24hours so it’s due able

Seems like heavy snow is about 10 hours 

[HVSnowLover]

24 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

 

 

Wow that does look eerily similar in terms of jackpot zone although a way colder storm

[White Gorilla]

I am hearing EPS basically unchanged from 12z 

[dave0176]

Not looking good for me though, I’m gonna call

3-6” IMBY while 5 miles north of me get 12-18” 

[ForestHillWx]

The January 2016 storm we got 33" out her in Chester; it was an absolute beast of a storm; I think I still have some cell videos I took during the height of it. Just absolutely dumped snow. I remember it well as my wife was 3 months pregnant with our first, my dad was in rehab post double knee replacement and we had a 10 week old puppy. No snowblower or plow, it took me the entire next stay (starting at 6:30 am) to shovel out.

But for some reason, January 96 remains my favorite. It got me into chasing weather.

Sorry for the banter...cheers everyone.

[HeadInTheClouds]

16 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I am hearing EPS basically unchanged from 12z 

We'll be fine. The Euro map still gives us about 10-11 with ratios. NWS Albany was talking about 14:1 in their discussion. 

[friedmators]

FOR FUN while we wait..

 

[DaveTinNY]

Mid-Rockland County here.  Will fire up the snow blower tomorrow and fire up the generator.  Hoping for lower than expected winds.  Sandy was enough for us - eight days sans power.  No fun.  A big snowstorm is beautiful to watch but the negative aspects outweigh the beauty.  Dump on us, just not the power loss......

 

[sussexcountyobs]

57 minutes ago, friedmators said:

 

26" in MBY? Where do I sign? Lol!

[uncle W]

4 minutes ago, DaveTinNY said:

Mid-Rockland County here.  Will fire up the snow blower tomorrow and fire up the generator.  Hoping for lower than expected winds.  Sandy was enough for us - eight days sans power.  No fun.  A big snowstorm is beautiful to watch but the negative aspects outweigh the beauty.  Dump on us, just not the power loss......

 

good thing it won't be wet snow up there...March 2018 was very bad up by Milford PA and NW Jersey...

[friedmators]

Euro is pretty windy even with its tendency to over do it.  Blizz warnings NE NJ?

[sussexcountyobs]

7 minutes ago, DaveTinNY said:

Mid-Rockland County here.  Will fire up the snow blower tomorrow and fire up the generator.  Hoping for lower than expected winds.  Sandy was enough for us - eight days sans power.  No fun.  A big snowstorm is beautiful to watch but the negative aspects outweigh the beauty.  Dump on us, just not the power loss......

 

Should be powdery snow by you. That is the key to no power loss. Unless some idiot takes out a pole.

[gravitylover]

Just now, uncle W said:

good thing it won't be wet snow up there...March 2018 was very bad up by Milford PA and NW Jersey...

That 3/18 storm was a disaster here too. A week with no power with snow and cold sucked. No I mean it SUCKED. Yup, gonna fire up the generator tomorrow just to be sure that all is well. I'm also going to go find a new shovel.

[shadowsintherain]

2 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Euro is pretty windy even with its tendency to over do it.  Blizz warnings NE NJ?

I would think for the island, too, no? Things could get hairy pretty much everywhere. Unless the 3hr wind criteria won't be met?

[NJwx85]

 

[eduggs]

Great looking setup for most of the region.  But a couple minor things I don't really like.

1. Models increasingly sending the biggest QPF into central PA - notably on most of the recent EC panels.

2. A warm layer on some guidance causing sleet to mix in as far north as northern NJ - notably on the 18z RGEM.

3. A quick thump followed by a dryslot and then mixed light precipition to end - notably on the NAM.

But if we can manage at least 8 or 10 inches overnight with light to moderate snow lingering after daybreak on Thursday morning I'll be really happy. Most guidance indicates a moist 700mb layer during the day on Thursday so at least sporadic flurries could stick around through midday.

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

 

it would still be the biggest December storm since 2010...I'll take it...

[friedmators]

[crossbowftw3]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

As an aside I sometimes love Joe’s ability to prop up the most ridiculous possible outcomes for a storm. 

[NJsnow89]

NAM rolling in

[wizard021]

HP stronger on nam.