Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[HVSnowLover]

32 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

How’s Islip or JFK going to get more than Central Park with this setup? 

Yea I don’t see that happening either unless the models change. Right now the banding seems like it will be over NYC and the northern suburbs 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Is the 18z euro out yet?

No it starts running about 645pm

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, sferic said:

Where does one view the 18z Euro?

Paid sites

[HeadInTheClouds]

Looking at GFS 18z ensembles it seems like they are considerably wetter than op especially north. 

[gravitylover]

34 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Bc I moved next door

Good move!

31 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The park needs 11.3" to reach the 30" average snowfall for the 30 year period. So don't expect anything over 11.2"

That's some funny sh*t dude  

 

So 12-18 for me huh? Guess I need to go find a new shovel tomorrow, wore my old one out scraping pavement last year.

[Nibor]

Just now, gravitylover said:

Good move!

That's some funny sh*t dude  

 

So 12-18 for me huh? Guess I need to go find a new shovel tomorrow, wore my old one out scraping pavement last year.

I fully expect the park to find a way to mess it up. Something ridiculous like deciding to measure on Friday afternoon.

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I fully expect the park to find a way to mess it up. Something ridiculous like deciding to measure on Friday afternoon.

CP would have a cow. 

[forkyfork]

if the snow isn't measured did it really happen?

[wizard021]

13 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Looking at GFS 18z ensembles it seems like they are considerably wetter than op especially north. 

wetter , but mean is se of the operational. 

[wdrag]

Forgive me if this is a repeat... I haven't been following for 5 hours.   WPC heavy snow discussion from ~430P. 

...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic to New York and Southern New 
England... 

The latest forecast continues to advertise a significant winter 
storm for portions of the central Appalachians, the Piedmont area 
of the Mid-Atlantic, and much of south-central/southeast NY and 
southern New England, as a nor'easter develops and lifts up along 
the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. The wave that crosses the 
southern Plains Tuesday will eject through the Mid-South Tuesday 
night and is forecast to take on a negative tilt as it arrives 
across the Appalachians on Wednesday. This will promote 
cyclogenesis off the Southeast coast with low pressure then 
lifting north and strengthening along the Mid-Atlantic coast and 
then arriving offshore of southeast New England by early Thursday. 
Meanwhile, a cold, 1036+mb high will be focused over Quebec and 
will be nosing south down across the interior of the Northeast and 
the Mid-Atlantic with a rather classic cold air-damming event 
expected to be in place as the low center moves up the coast. 

As strong warm-air advection/isentropic ascent occurs ahead of the 
upstream trough along with increasingly moist Atlantic inflow over 
the cold air, a large swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected 
to develop for portions of the central Appalachians and the 
adjacent Piedmont areas of WV/VA/MD and PA on Wednesday with the 
focus west of the I-95 urban corridor, and the bigger cities of 
Washington D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia. By Wednesday night 
and early Thursday the focus of heavy snow will overspread areas 
of southeast NY and southern New England including the New York 
City and Boston metropolitan areas. The latest model guidance 
favors a rather strong comma-head/deformation zone impacting 
especially areas of eastern PA, southeast NY, northern NJ and 
southeast New England on Thursday as the low center further 
deepens and then begins to edge east-northeast and farther 
offshore. Meanwhile, down across areas of northwest SC, western 
NC, southwest VA, and southern WV, the cold air will be much more 
shallow by comparison, and it appears likely that there will be a 
period of freezing rain and locally some sleet as the event ensues 
on Wednesday. Some of this may sneak up near or just west of I-95 
as well from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia. But the threat of 
ice farther north closer to New York City and certainly Boston 
will be notably lower. 

WPC favored a a multi-model blend approach for the precipitation 
forecast with a tad more weighting to the ECMWF, and lesser 
weighting to the NAM and GFS. The NAM is farther west and warmer 
with the evolution of this system, with the GFS a bit colder and 
farther east. While not totally dismissing the NAM and GFS, a 
model consensus somewhat closer to the ECMWF and ECENS mean was 
favored for QPF and was applied to the thermal profiles. 

Based on the latest forecast, the expectation is for storm total 
snowfall to be as much as 12 to 18 inches for the interior of 
especially the northern Mid-Atlantic, far southeast NY and 
southern New England. Where freezing rain occurs, the greatest ice 
accretions are expected over northwest NC, southwest to central VA 
and over parts of southern WV where locally as much as a tenth to 
quarter inch of ice will be possible. 
 

Added the collaborated snow range from the mid afternoon NWS forecast cycle.  And , an example of the primary band of lift for ~4AM Thursday (18z/14 NAM)...in an arc fro nw NJ to SNE. IF this is reliable, a band of S+ should be occurring near or just north of the arc.  

[hooralph]

1 hour ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

GFS coming in NW. Getting real worried for the I95 crew now. This might end up being a North and West storm. 

 

1 hour ago, Northof78 said:

GFS really squashes northern precip shield, really nice hit for the metro...

 

We're in midseason form, baby!

 

 

 

[sferic]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Forgive me if this is a repeat... I haven't been following for 5 hours.   WPC heavy snow discussion from ~430P. 

...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic to New York and Southern New 
England... 

The latest forecast continues to advertise a significant winter 
storm for portions of the central Appalachians, the Piedmont area 
of the Mid-Atlantic, and much of south-central/southeast NY and 
southern New England, as a nor'easter develops and lifts up along 
the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. The wave that crosses the 
southern Plains Tuesday will eject through the Mid-South Tuesday 
night and is forecast to take on a negative tilt as it arrives 
across the Appalachians on Wednesday. This will promote 
cyclogenesis off the Southeast coast with low pressure then 
lifting north and strengthening along the Mid-Atlantic coast and 
then arriving offshore of southeast New England by early Thursday. 
Meanwhile, a cold, 1036+mb high will be focused over Quebec and 
will be nosing south down across the interior of the Northeast and 
the Mid-Atlantic with a rather classic cold air-damming event 
expected to be in place as the low center moves up the coast. 

As strong warm-air advection/isentropic ascent occurs ahead of the 
upstream trough along with increasingly moist Atlantic inflow over 
the cold air, a large swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected 
to develop for portions of the central Appalachians and the 
adjacent Piedmont areas of WV/VA/MD and PA on Wednesday with the 
focus west of the I-95 urban corridor, and the bigger cities of 
Washington D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia. By Wednesday night 
and early Thursday the focus of heavy snow will overspread areas 
of southeast NY and southern New England including the New York 
City and Boston metropolitan areas. The latest model guidance 
favors a rather strong comma-head/deformation zone impacting 
especially areas of eastern PA, southeast NY, northern NJ and 
southeast New England on Thursday as the low center further 
deepens and then begins to edge east-northeast and farther 
offshore. Meanwhile, down across areas of northwest SC, western 
NC, southwest VA, and southern WV, the cold air will be much more 
shallow by comparison, and it appears likely that there will be a 
period of freezing rain and locally some sleet as the event ensues 
on Wednesday. Some of this may sneak up near or just west of I-95 
as well from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia. But the threat of 
ice farther north closer to New York City and certainly Boston 
will be notably lower. 

WPC favored a a multi-model blend approach for the precipitation 
forecast with a tad more weighting to the ECMWF, and lesser 
weighting to the NAM and GFS. The NAM is farther west and warmer 
with the evolution of this system, with the GFS a bit colder and 
farther east. While not totally dismissing the NAM and GFS, a 
model consensus somewhat closer to the ECMWF and ECENS mean was 
favored for QPF and was applied to the thermal profiles. 

Based on the latest forecast, the expectation is for storm total 
snowfall to be as much as 12 to 18 inches for the interior of 
especially the northern Mid-Atlantic, far southeast NY and 
southern New England. Where freezing rain occurs, the greatest ice 
accretions are expected over northwest NC, southwest to central VA 
and over parts of southern WV where locally as much as a tenth to 
quarter inch of ice will be possible. 
 

Added the collaborated snow range from the mid afternoon NWS forecast cycle.  And , an example of the primary band of lift for ~4AM Thursday (18z/14 NAM)...in an arc fro nw NJ to SNE. IF this is reliable, a band of S+ should be occurring near or just north of the arc.  

Walt,

That graphic from the NWS which you posted which  included the color coded legend for snow amounts including the Catskills ( Liberty/Monticello)  do you have a direct link or path to it ?

 

Thank you !

 

Thank ypou !

[Snowlover11]

18z euro rolling.

[jdj5211]

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

18z euro rolling.

I'm feeling fuzzy about this run.....

[weatherbear5]

9 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

18z euro rolling.

Heights slightly higher along the east coast through hr 48 vs 12z

in addition, the S/W is much sharper over western Kentucky

gonna try to come NW a little bit, methinks

 

[Snowlover11]

euro chases the convection just like the gfs.  cuts northern areas down (I-84) is the cut off line from heavier totals.

[wdrag]

18 minutes ago, sferic said:

Walt,

That graphic from the NWS which you posted which  included the color coded legend for snow amounts including the Catskills ( Liberty/Monticello)  do you have a direct link or path to it ?

 

Thank you !

here it is... you just click on the graphic you want to see...  remember... NWS can make a change 310P in a statement. It may not show up in this graphic til 410 or 510PM. 

https://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=OKX

Thank ypou !

 

[jm1220]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

euro chases the convection just like the gfs.  cuts northern areas down (I-84) is the cut off line from heavier totals.

Not sure we can blame this on convective feedback. If the confluence says it can’t go north any further, that’s what happens. 

[Gravity Wave]

Euro is really nice for most, 12-18 for everyone except the Jersey coast.

[MJO812]

Euro!

[weatherbear5]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

euro chases the convection just like the gfs.  cuts northern areas down (I-84) is the cut off line from heavier totals.

Is it chasing convection? Or is it a result of a brick wall of confluence

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

euro chases the convection just like the gfs.  cuts northern areas down (I-84) is the cut off line from heavier totals.

Wow so a cave maybe, are 6z and 18z euro as reliable as 0z and 12z? Didn’t even know euro ran four times now. 

[DaveTinNY]

Mid Rockland County, NY looking interesting.... Snow blower is ready with only a 14" vertical height.  Hmmpf. 

 

[sferic]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 

Thank you so much !

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro!

That’s a tight gradient both north and south of the city.

[Snowlover11]

Euro keeps areas south of I-84 in the double digit snow totals. while north of I-84 still sees decent totals of 5-9”

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

That’s a tight gradient both north and south of the city.

Over NJ they are screwed more by onshore winds from the NE than mid level warmth to me, at least from Toms River north. That evolution would be heavy snow Philly on north if it was a month later and waters colder. 

[Snowlover11]

well honestly it looks like it chases the convection but we all know northern areas(I-84) and above where in question.  euro is stilk a very good storm for most.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

That snow map looks almost exactly like January 23rd 2016.

Cave to the Gfs and it’s gradient in New England. Never bet against a strong high 

[wxman]

5 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

That snow map looks almost exactly like January 23rd 2016.

I got 23.5" in that one.  I think even Southern NJ joined that party, 13.4" at AC airport.  This depiction is further north and not as heavy anywhere.