Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[White Gorilla]

23 minutes ago, Animal said:

Yea..I would be slightly nervous north of I 84.

0z will be telling

Here 10 miles north of 84 and I am always nervous with every coastal winter storm.  Several model runs to go.  I still predict 8-12 for my area.  You folks down in the city can enjoy 12-18 imo. 

[weatherpruf]

32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Well not always.  It did that on 1/22/87 

Worst storm I ever got stuck in....but that was a much colder day, and it had been pretty cold.

[HeadInTheClouds]

18z scorecard IMBY 

NAM 26

RGEM 19

GFS 3 

Can't make this sh!t up. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

models starting to pick up on that High, GFS did tick north though.

Barely. It's a bit more inland but then it goes ENE. 

A lot of this is just noise. Take a break until tomorrow. 

[Snowlover11]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Barely. It's a bit more inland but then it goes ENE. 

A lot of this is just noise. Take a break until tomorrow. 

typical gfs bs though it chases the convection offshore.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

18z scorecard IMBY 

NAM 26

RGEM 19

GFS 3 

Can't make this sh!t up. 

Well that is triple what the GFS gave you three runs ago. Six more runs at that rate and your at 27!

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Well that is triple what the GFS gave you three runs ago. Six more runs at that rate and your at 27!

and 48/3 is 16 so I'm good. 

[jm1220]

GFS was always going to trend north. Not much doubt this tries to tuck toward southern NJ-then hopefully sharp east turn. Areas of CT and S NY will do quite well with this-never bought these crazy cutoffs just north of me. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS was always going to trend north. Not much doubt this tries to tuck toward southern NJ-then hopefully sharp east turn. Areas of CT and S NY will do quite well with this-never bought these crazy cutoffs just north of me. 

Agree

The blocking isn't as severe as 2010 or 2016

[kat5hurricane]

The GFS was always going to correct north, this is windshield wiper stuff. The 18z models are always wonky anyway, the 0z suite will be more telling.

[jm1220]

Actually the GFS doesn’t look much different to me at all. The 0.75” liquid line makes it just a hair further north in CT vs 12z? On both runs Boston is  just under 0.5” liquid. 

[lee59]

Getting a little concerned about the rain/snow line in coastal areas.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Getting a little concerned about the rain/snow line in coastal areas.

The rain snow line is always close to us in every storm

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Actually the GFS doesn’t look much different to me at all. The 0.75” liquid line makes it just a hair further north in CT vs 12z? On both runs Boston is  just under 0.5” liquid. 

basically the same as 12z-just model noise at this point....

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The rain snow line is always close to us in every storm

Nobody north of Sandy Hook is probably changing to rain with this other than maybe far ERN LI.  Sleet or dry slotting is the risk

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The rain snow line is always close to us in every storm

If the winds stay from a NE direction which is very likely I doubt anyone other than the twin forks maybe see any rain. Coastal NJ will have mostly rain because of NE winds-there that's onshore with warm early Dec waters. As for the sleet, the 700/850 low tracks are key, and there was improvement on the recent NAM/Euro runs. 

[Joe4alb]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Nobody north of Sandy Hook is probably changing to rain with this other than maybe far ERN LI.  Sleet or dry slotting is the risk

update NWS for South Fork of LI

Wednesday Night

Snow before 1am, then rain, snow, and sleet between 1am and 4am, then rain and snow after 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 37. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Joe4alb said:

update NWS for South Fork of LI

Wednesday Night

Snow before 1am, then rain, snow, and sleet between 1am and 4am, then rain and snow after 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 37. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

if it's really 37 not much is accumulating....

[jm1220]

Looks like Upton going with around a foot or just over at this point for most of the NYC area, and sleet or rain cutting things back out east. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like Upton going with around a foot or just over at this point for most of the NYC area, and sleet or rain cutting things back out east. 

 

 

[Rjay]

Just now, JoshSnow said:

How’s Islip going to get more than Central Park with this setup? 

Bc I moved next door

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, JoshSnow said:

How’s Islip or JFK going to get more than Central Park with this setup? 

The park needs 11.3" to reach the 30" average snowfall for the 30 year period. So don't expect anything over 11.2"

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

How’s Islip or JFK going to get more than Central Park with this setup? 

Banding ?

[sferic]

Here in Liberty NY in the Catskills, having just bought a new snowblower, I will be happy for 12 fluffy inches, anything on top of that amount would be gravy

 

[patrick05]

20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Bc I moved next door

ISP does seem to report relatively higher totals compared to other neighborhoods from my experience haha

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, patrick05 said:

ISP does seem to report relatively higher totals compared to other neighborhoods from my experience haha

They have really been in the sweet spot in recent years with some storms which contributed to that but a few times I thought their final total seemed too high.

[David-LI]

Is the 18z euro out yet?

[HVSnowLover]

33 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

update NWS for South Fork of LI

Wednesday Night

Snow before 1am, then rain, snow, and sleet between 1am and 4am, then rain and snow after 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 37. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

He said except for far eastern LI, south fork is as warm on LI as you’ll get in this type of setup 

[TriPol]

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html

I've taken a look back at NYC's biggest snowstorms. None of the quick ones have ever dropped a foot or more. Maybe this will be the first?

[sferic]

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Is the 18z euro out yet?

Where does one view the 18z Euro?