Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

Link/picture?

It doesn't but it is west.

 

[NJwx85]

18z RGEM

[romba]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

 

 

The low coming into NYC would be a disaster.  

Well not always.  It did that on 1/22/87 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

I'm worried about getting dry slotted and mixing heavily in CNJ as should I-95. I hope the MESOS are overamping this. Sometimes they under do the confluence so we'll see who wins out. Globals look way different at this point. Let's see if they hold serve with the 18z runs. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

18z RGEM

Too far NW it will adjust I think but still a great storm for subforum even as is verbatim 

[Sn0waddict]

Icon and RGEM seemed to go north a bit. Would rather not have that happen. Will see if it’s a trend or a fluke.

[LaGrangewx]

Rgem continues a nice NW trend keep it coming lol. Crushed for the suburbs. But only a 12 hour storm. Tough to get more than 18” maybe someone cracks 20+ in the best banding 

[Brian5671]

relax people.   Most runs today show a great solution for most here-don't live and die by each model run.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Icon and RGEM seemed to go north a bit. Would rather not have that happen. Will see if it’s a trend or a fluke.

Nam Euro and GFS all south, I think S CT is golden for this.   

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Icon and RGEM seemed to go north a bit. Would rather not have that happen. Will see if it’s a trend or a fluke.

Icon is trash. Rgem isn't good outside 36 hours. 

I'll take the Euro/Gfs combo right now.

[psv88]

RGEM made a weird NW retrograde which likely threw it off...something funky with that run

[HVSnowLover]

Euro came south all that really matters IMO. The rest is noise until NAM is in its real range 

[EastonSN+]

I would put far less weight on rgem and icon than GFS and EURO. Rgem more weight tomorrow. Name too.

[wizard021]

700 mb vort center 18z run

 

700 mb vort center 6z. 

Trend south noted.

[NYC10023]

13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Make sure you bring a yard stick and a camera.

Central Park needs 11.3 inches of snow this December to get the 30 year average to 30 inches. Don't let them under measure it as is often the case.

Good idea. 

I always have my camera, but will buy a yardstick tomorrow. I tend to walk up near where the NOAA station is near Belvedere castle so I'll take some measurements near there and down near the Sheep Meadow

[jm1220]

Just now, psv88 said:

RGEM made a weird NW retrograde which likely threw it off...something funky with that run

I'm not too concerned with it. The Euro/NAM coming southeast was a good thing. And even so the RGEM was pretty nice verbatim for our area. Philly area gets a ton of sleet. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I would put far less weight on rgem and icon than GFS and EURO. Rgem more weight tomorrow. Name too.

The RGEM is ALWAYS overamped in the 40 plus hour range...or nearly always.  The NAM has no real persistent bias.  I just look for consistency from run to run to see if its onto something.  So far it has not been extremely consistent though it has not pulled the sometimes NAM windshield wiper effect at least.  I've used a ECMWF/CMC/GFS blend so far and gone 9-11 at LGA and 8-10 at JFK with a chance of sleet 04-09Z.

[floridapirate]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I'm worried about getting dry slotted and mixing heavily in CNJ as should I-95. I hope the MESOS are overamping this. Sometimes they under do the confluence so we'll see who wins out. Globals look way different at this point. Let's see if they hold serve with the 18z runs. 

It seems whenever mixing is considered, mixing is always underplayed.  Just observational, no numbers to back it up.

[weatherbear5]

Through 36, 500mb would seem to indicate GFS will tick northwest a bit

[NJsnow89]

Gfs trending back north. Ugh

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

GFS coming in NW. Getting real worried for the I95 crew now. This might end up being a North and West storm. 

[HVSnowLover]

Low is further NW but precip is still lousy on the NW side. Probably gfs error with precip. 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

This frame is a bomb. Dynamics save the day

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

GFS coming in NW. Getting real worried for the I95 crew now. This might end up being a North and West storm. 

It always was. 

But as I suspect, it's just more windshield wiper action with regards to the heaviest band.

[Northof78]

GFS really squashes northern precip shield, really nice hit for the metro...

[HVSnowLover]

I’d be surprised if it’s pouring all over southern NJ and good precip barely makes it to Orange County or southern CT but I guess anything is possible. 

[Animal]

2 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

GFS really squashes northern precip shield, really nice hit for the metro...

Yea..I would be slightly nervous north of I 84.

0z will be telling

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Gfs trending back north. Ugh

 

11 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

GFS coming in NW. Getting real worried for the I95 crew now. This might end up being a North and West storm. 

Its a good run but the GFS will trend north. The question is how far north.

[Snowlover11]

models starting to pick up on that High, GFS did tick north though.