Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Allsnow]

Yes!

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'll take the 26 inches it gives Poughkeepsie, lol, but I agree with you about that cutoff in SE PA. Funky run to say the least. 

Way overdone for our area in Poughkeepsie even with ratios factored.  I think we get around 10.  Looks pretty but not going to verify as such up here. 

[David-LI]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

NAM is clueless lol. This run's solution is laughable. I wouldn't even look at the NAM till tomorrow afternoon. No way the cutoff is that sharp and southeastern PA gets shafted like that. 

Because it doesn't have a foot in your backyard throw the run out?

[White Gorilla]

WSW extended up here to Poughkeepsie now. 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Because it doesn't have a foot in your backyard throw the run out?

No because it's an outlier.  I don't live in in SE Pa but there's no way that Northern Bucks County PA gets 5" while northern Ocean County NJ gets over a foot. Also it extends the heavy precip way further north than any other model. 

[hudsonvalley21]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

No chance this happens for the yellow shaded area, huge outlier. Toss it. 

That’s crazy with that lollipop of 30” just south of KALB.

[HeadInTheClouds]

8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Way overdone for our area in Poughkeepsie even with ratios factored.  I think we get around 10.  Looks pretty but not going to verify as such up here. 

Agreed. I wouldn't argue with an 8-12 forecast for our area. nam gave us 26 and gfs will give us 2. Split the difference, lol. American models suck. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

I think the cutoff on the latest Nam is Canada. 

[MJO812]

ALERT: Winter Storm Watch for New York, Bronx, Richmond, Kings, Suffolk, Queens and Nassau County in NY until 1:00pm Thursday.

[hudsonvalley21]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
400 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-151000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.201216T1900Z-201217T1800Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
400 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 17
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, especially
  along the coast.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and
  Thursday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

[MJO812]

Winter Storm Watch for NYC 

8-14 inches with gusts up to 50 mph

[Cfa]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

ALERT: Winter Storm Watch for New York, Bronx, Richmond, Kings, Suffolk, Queens and Nassau County in NY until 1:00pm Thursday.

First Watch in 2 years?

[NJwx85]

The 18z NAM tracks the 700mb low over NE PA, NNJ and then NYC/LI. We want that about 50 miles Southeast. Otherwise precip might completely shutoff after the initial thump.

[Snowman86]

Im excited like a little kid for christmas!!!

 

Amen

[NJwx85]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
400 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-151000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.201216T1900Z-201217T1800Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
400 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 17
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, especially
  along the coast.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and
  Thursday morning commute.

[NYC10023]

1 minute ago, Snowman86 said:

Im excited like a little kid for christmas!!!

 

Amen

me too. 

I told my friends, I'm like an 8 year old with this stuff. I'm catching up on sleep now since I full intend to be out at Central Park for the duration. Luckily only 2 blocks away so I can come home, rejuvenate, then head back out 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Cfa said:

First Watch in 2 years?

I got a watch and warning last December

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z NAM tracks the 700mb low over NE PA, NNJ and then NYC/LI. We want that about 50 miles Southeast. Otherwise precip might completely shutoff after the initial thump.

Check out the hi res nam

[Northof78]

12" - 17" for NE NJ with gusts to 45mph per WSW

[MJO812]

DT

[Snowlover11]

12-17” with 45 mph wind gusts? yes please.

[shadowsintherain]

So, how likely are we to get the B-word thrown around sometime soon? Are winds high enough and sustained for over 3 hours to accomplish that? 

[mikem81]

RGEM sends the low into NYC

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

RGEM sends the low into NYC

I already posted it. Its nice.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

RGEM sends the low into NYC

Nope

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

RGEM sends the low into NYC

 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I already posted it. Its nice.

 

The low coming into NYC would be a disaster. 

[weatherbear5]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Nope

That is the 12z run. the origin date for some reason is changing from 18z to 12z at hour 49 

 

 

[HVSnowLover]

42 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Enjoy

 

 

Nam is funky with upper levels for some reason. Philadelphia will get way more than that. Also Poughkeepsie is not getting 26 inches. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

10 minutes ago, ny10019 said:

me too. 

I told my friends, I'm like an 8 year old with this stuff. I'm catching up on sleep now since I full intend to be out at Central Park for the duration. Luckily only 2 blocks away so I can come home, rejuvenate, then head back out 

Make sure you bring a yard stick and a camera.

Central Park needs 11.3 inches of snow this December to get the 30 year average to 30 inches. Don't let them under measure it as is often the case.

[weatherbear5]

9 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

RGEM sends the low into NYC

Link/picture?