Blizzardo Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 virga will be the issues up north. dry air eating it before it hits the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: My point, 84 Is not on the fringe with a foot forecast, I90 is on the fringe. Just because you can show me a model run that has a foot for I-84 means that it's going to happen. I hope we all get slammed but when you have a blocking high like that to the North the snow can only come so far North. I still have nightmares from February 2010. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Blizzardo said: Subsidence has nothing to do with the northern cutoff. Thats a whole nother story and can also happen anywhere Subsidence can indeed happen anywhere, but that includes the areas north and west of the main deform band which can sometimes accentuate the northern/western cutoff, a la January 2016 and BDB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Just because you can show me a model run that has a foot for I-84 means that it's going to happen. I hope we all get slammed but when you have a blocking high like that to the North the snow can only come so far North. I still have nightmares from February 2010. It isn't just one model run. It is many models over consecutive runs. I am cautious about the possibility of being severely fringed, so I am not in denial. I think Poughkeepsie area is a good 8-12 inches with cutoff closer to I 90 as Mr Drag also suggests. Could be wrong, but most models except the GFS show that solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Just because you can show me a model run that has a foot for I-84 means that it's going to happen. I hope we all get slammed but when you have a blocking high like that to the North the snow can only come so far North. I still have nightmares from February 2010. It's not just a model run, it's every model run aside from the GFS. I'm not cherry picking one run of one model. We will see how it plays out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Subsidence can indeed happen anywhere, but that includes the areas north and west of the main deform band which can sometimes accentuate the northern/western cutoff, a la January 2016 and BDB. yes true. To clarify, to me atleast, the northern cutoff and subsidence from a deform band are two different things but they can end up in the same location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM well S/E and much colder...not sure on QPF yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Wow nice hit on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Nam gonna be a big one ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 nam is colder and a tick south. precip field looks weird tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Surface is nice and cold on the NAM, but 850s get close to zero for the I-78 corridor east to the City early in the storm. Something to watch on meso models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 That high is no joke on the NAM. Also looks like a crazy snow hole over Philly and SNJ gets basically nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 philly gets dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: My point, 84 Is not on the fringe with a foot forecast, I90 is on the fringe. I still think it ends up south of I90 but so far most of the guidance disagrees with that. I was likely wrong with my Poughkeepsie cutoff but we'll see. I still expect a real sharp cutoff on the north side of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I agree that precip shield is odd...not sure what to think about this run as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM is a 48 hour model. Hours 48-84 are just for fun. Only use it for trends until at least 0Z or 6Z tommorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, jdj5211 said: I agree that precip shield is odd...not sure what to think about this run as a whole The NAM verbatim takes the main precip shield north of the city after the initial thump, but it's still adjusting south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerinthe Major Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: Relatively common. A good way to think of it is the south shore folks are on the beach and the north shore folks are 10 or 15 miles inland. The LI Sound isn't insignificant, but it's a much smaller body of water and after October also colder. In 2015, a significant portion of the Sound froze over. if anything, it adds more snow than it detracts. This was a helpful way to think about it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The 700 low on this 18z run looks like it tracks just about over NYC and LI, 850 low about 75 miles SE. Good improvement here. I would think this could be enough to keep much mix away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM probably with ratios, moved roughly in line with other models with the colder/east shift. Probably shows 12" or so for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Be careful with the extent of the totals on the Northern edge. At some point the precip hits a brick wall and you're going to see totals diminish from a foot plus to nothing over about 50 miles. I agree with this. I, for one, live in Rockland County, and although my area is looking very good for 12+, I have seen these scenarios where this very sharp gradient drops 50+ miles south over the last 2 days and screws us. So yes, it does look good, but we would all be making a big mistake letting our guards down. We must remain vigilant, and not get complacent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 No mixing issues on the NAM unless you're in SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Nam trending in the right direction. Don't worry so much about what it's doing aloft with 850s and such... that'll correct as we get closer. More ticks S & E wouldn't surprise me. Models starting to really pick up on the confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: No mixing issues on the NAM unless you're in SNJ S NJ is very unlikely to get much snow from this even if the mid levels cool a little more. Surface winds there coming from the Atlantic are a killer in Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM is clueless lol. This run's solution is laughable. I wouldn't even look at the NAM till tomorrow afternoon. No way the cutoff is that sharp and southeastern PA gets shafted like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The 3km NAM is going to give us some delicious runs starting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 No chance this happens for the yellow shaded area, huge outlier. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: NAM is clueless lol. This run's solution is laughable. I wouldn't even look at the NAM till tomorrow afternoon. No way the cutoff is that sharp and southeastern PA gets shafted like that. I'll take the 26 inches it gives Poughkeepsie, lol, but I agree with you about that cutoff in SE PA. Funky run to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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