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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

My point, 84 Is not on the fringe with a foot forecast,  I90 is on the fringe. 

Just because you can show me a model run that has a foot for I-84 means that it's going to happen.

I hope we all get slammed but when you have a blocking high like that to the North the snow can only come so far North. I still have nightmares from February 2010.

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Gravity Wave

Gravity Wave

Posted
Posted
Just now, Blizzardo said:

Subsidence has nothing to do with the northern cutoff. Thats a whole nother story and can also happen anywhere

Subsidence can indeed happen anywhere, but that includes the areas north and west of the main deform band which can sometimes accentuate the northern/western cutoff, a la January 2016 and BDB. 

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White Gorilla

White Gorilla

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Just because you can show me a model run that has a foot for I-84 means that it's going to happen.

I hope we all get slammed but when you have a blocking high like that to the North the snow can only come so far North. I still have nightmares from February 2010.

It isn't just one model run.  It is many models over consecutive runs.  I am cautious about the possibility of being severely fringed, so I am not in denial.  I think Poughkeepsie area is a good 8-12 inches with cutoff closer to I 90 as Mr Drag also suggests.  Could be wrong, but most models except the GFS show that solution. 

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HeadInTheClouds

HeadInTheClouds

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Just because you can show me a model run that has a foot for I-84 means that it's going to happen.

I hope we all get slammed but when you have a blocking high like that to the North the snow can only come so far North. I still have nightmares from February 2010.

It's not just a model run, it's every model run aside from the GFS. I'm not cherry picking one run of one model. We will see how it plays out. 

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Blizzardo

Blizzardo

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Subsidence can indeed happen anywhere, but that includes the areas north and west of the main deform band which can sometimes accentuate the northern/western cutoff, a la January 2016 and BDB. 

yes true. To clarify, to me atleast, the northern cutoff and subsidence from a deform band are two different things but they can end up in the same location.

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
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23 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

My point, 84 Is not on the fringe with a foot forecast,  I90 is on the fringe. 

I still think it ends up south of I90 but so far most of the guidance disagrees with that.   I was likely wrong with my Poughkeepsie cutoff but we'll see.  I still expect a real sharp cutoff on the north side of this. 

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Cerinthe Major

Cerinthe Major

Posted
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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Relatively common.  A good way to think of it is the south shore folks are on the beach and the north shore folks are 10 or 15 miles inland.  The LI Sound isn't insignificant, but it's a much smaller body of water and after October also colder.  In 2015, a significant portion of the Sound froze over.  if anything, it adds more snow than it detracts.

This was a helpful way to think about it. Thanks!

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KeithB

KeithB

Posted
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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Be careful with the extent of the totals on the Northern edge. At some point the precip hits a brick wall and you're going to see totals diminish from a foot plus to nothing over about 50 miles.

I agree with this. I, for one, live in Rockland County, and although my area is looking very good for 12+, I have seen these scenarios where this very sharp gradient drops 50+ miles south over the last 2 days and screws us. So yes, it does look good, but we would all be making a big mistake letting our guards down. We must remain vigilant, and not get complacent! 

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HeadInTheClouds

HeadInTheClouds

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

NAM is clueless lol. This run's solution is laughable. I wouldn't even look at the NAM till tomorrow afternoon. No way the cutoff is that sharp and southeastern PA gets shafted like that. 

I'll take the 26 inches it gives Poughkeepsie, lol, but I agree with you about that cutoff in SE PA. Funky run to say the least. 

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