Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[snywx]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

The whole forum will like this one. I'll take my foot and run. 

A general 12-18” snowfall from I-78 to I-84.. haven’t seen that in awhile 

[nycsnow]

55-65mph wind gust nyc east on euro

 

[allgame830]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not even close to what the GFS has been showing past 2 days. This is what cmc/euro blend has been showing though. 

Yea I was just about to say that.  EURO is still far better then the GFS... all that is doing here is meeting in the middle!

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

A general 12-18” snowfall from I-78 to I-84.. haven’t seen that in awhile 

I think we also will have slightly higher ratios than NYC metro. 12:1 or so. 

[shadowsintherain]

All hail the King!


.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

 

It improved alot, and gave us extra 15 miles of breathing room so stay in the good stuff...

I think it’s the confluence asserting itself on these models today and causing the better SE trend. It really means business on this Euro run and we see the cutting off to the north. This will try to hug the coast and then run into a wall. 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Now every model is in almost perfect agreement for 12" - 18" almost area wide...very nice

We've known that this was going to be the case since Saturday.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yea I was just about to say that.  EURO is still far better then the GFS... all that is doing here is meeting in the middle!

The euro and ukmet were giving Albany and north of the pike 12+! It’s the Gfs that saw the tight gradient to the north with the block. 

[Heisy]

Just now, Allsnow said:

The euro and ukmet were giving Albany and north of the pike 12+! It’s the Gfs that saw the tight gradient to the north with the block. 

Still too early to call a win yet. I have a feeling 18z NAM delivers though for some reason

[SnoSki14]

Yeah this would be a solid 12-16/18" storm.

The lows gonna press against that block hard and I think it'll allow for some very strong bands to develop. 

A few local spots near 20" wouldn't surprise me.

[mikem81]

2 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

All hail the King!


.Uniform 12-18 amounts as the first 1-3 inches in NW NJ and LHV are printed out for today's system

 

[David-LI]

Does anyone have the euro run but in 3 hour intervals instead of 6? Or even one hour intervals, not sure that product exists.

[Gravity Wave]

Wouldn't take much of a shift to put the city on the core of the deform band. The mesos will be key starting tomorrow.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, David-LI said:

Does anyone have the euro run but in 3 hour intervals instead of 6? Or even one hour intervals, not sure that product exists.

Not yet.  I can only access the rapid version until about 2 which comes in as 6 hour increments

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro and ukmet were giving Albany and north of the pike 12+! It’s the Gfs that saw the tight gradient to the north with the block. 

A lot of our New England neighbors were quick to dismiss the Gfs, which is fair given it was an outlier but it clearly hammered in the blocking/confluence idea. 

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro and ukmet were giving Albany and north of the pike 12+! It’s the Gfs that saw the tight gradient to the north with the block. 

fair enough but the GFS was too south and east... like i said meeting in the middle.

[Cerinthe Major]

Moved to LI (NW Nassau) from DC area 18 months ago, hoping I’d get a bit more snow. Last year wasn’t great! Fingers crossed for this. One thing that’s interesting to me is that down there I would have seen a 20 mi difference as more or less unpredictable, but everything clearly shows quite a diff between North Shore and South Shore on LI that I suppose is relatively common?

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Yea I was just about to say that.  EURO is still far better then the GFS... all that is doing here is meeting in the middle!

Yes. Euro/cmc have been giving I84 around a foot for days

 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The euro and ukmet were giving Albany and north of the pike 12+! It’s the Gfs that saw the tight gradient to the north with the block. 

Wrong, the Ukie has been on crack just like the GFS. The Euro/CMC blend has given the I84 guys 12-14 inches consistently for the past 2 days and the GFS has been giving 1 or 2 inches and just corrected this morning a little. It's been horrible with this. 

[sferic]

10 minutes ago, snywx said:

A general 12-18” snowfall from I-78 to I-84.. haven’t seen that in awhile 

I'd Say Liberty in Sullivan County in the 8-12 range but we will have great ratios too

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Cerinthe Major said:

Moved to LI (NW Nassau) from DC area 18 months ago, hoping I’d get a bit more snow. Last year wasn’t great! Fingers crossed for this. One thing that’s interesting to me is that down there I would have seen a 20 mi difference as more or less unpredictable, but everything clearly shows quite a diff between North Shore and South Shore on LI that I suppose is relatively common?

Yes-I’d say the snow average where I used to live in Long Beach is something like 25” per winter vs where I am now where it’s over 30”. The North Shore particularly elevated areas out to around Stony Brook would be the best region of LI for snow. Marginal situations typically buy us a couple of degrees for wet snow vs rain elsewhere. 

[NJwx85]

Be careful with the extent of the totals on the Northern edge. At some point the precip hits a brick wall and you're going to see totals diminish from a foot plus to nothing over about 50 miles.

[wizard021]

Storm is losing intensity each run and more strung out by 12z Thursday.  Looking like 6 to 12 area wide. Qpf only 1.3 yesterday was over 2.

[jm1220]

I wouldn’t think much higher than 10-1 for ratios especially in areas with high winds that can cut ratios down. The final part of the storm in the CCB band typically has the higher ratios, not the front WAA part. 

[Brian5671]

winds are going to be a big issue on the coast...40-50 mph gusts

[e46and2]

1 minute ago, wizard021 said:

Storm is losing intensity each run and more strung out by 12z Thursday.  Looking like 6 to 12 area wide. Qpf only 1.3 yesterday was over 2.

pdii had a min pressure of like 1010mb.  this is about gradient with the high, and thermal overrunning, both of which should produce a storm more intense than the minimum pressure may suggest.

[Neblizzard]

1 minute ago, e46and2 said:

pdii had a min pressure of like 1010mb.  this is about gradient with the high, and thermal overrunning, both of which should produce a storm more intense than the minimum pressure may suggest.

Exactly. You don’t need a strong storm  with the amount of moisture this storm will tap into.  Having a massive high to the north will generate strong winds even without a very deep surface low 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Storm is losing intensity each run and more strung out by 12z Thursday.  Looking like 6 to 12 area wide. Qpf only 1.3 yesterday was over 2.

the 2 inch amts were over done.   You don't need a big bomb to get 12 inches of snow-PD storm in 2003 was actually weak and many got 18 inches

[North and West]

Just now, Neblizzard said:

Exactly. You don’t need a strong surface system with the amount of moisture this storm will tap into.  Having a massive high to the north will generate strong winds even without a very deep surface low 

and correct me if I am wrong (and I may be hilariously wrong), but the low would also be hitting a warm ocean early in the winter season, which should only help with tapping moisture to fling into the cold dome. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Be careful with the extent of the totals on the Northern edge. At some point the precip hits a brick wall and you're going to see totals diminish from a foot plus to nothing over about 50 miles.

Yes and looking at Euro I84 gets around a foot and decreases to 2 inches around I90. 

[SnoSki14]

Knock on wood but anyone getting 6"+ amounts will have a white Christmas this year.

The grinch storm is gone, we still have blocking in place, and things actually get kinda favorable for more snow last week of December if the GEFS is correct. 

Models are also raising the heights around Alaska, which would help a lot with the cold supply.