Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[nycsnow]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Another weenie map

 

Nyc is at an inch and snowmap shows 9 inches... there’s just no precip 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Impossible to really say without surface temp charts and the 700/850 low tracks. The surface low tracks pretty close to best case scenario IMO for heavy snow but maybe the 700/850 lows are a lot further NW. 

Too busy at work to look deeper.  Use this link and post what you find.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/new-jersey/sea-level-pressure/20201218-0000z.html

[e46and2]

8 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

It ain’t lack of precip. 1.5-2.0+ inches liquid from Tappan Zee East.

Some kinda sneaky warm layer

models never have proper graphic representation for long island p-types.  we have a fairly predictable microclimate that those who live here are familiar with.  this is a perfect setup for long island west of route 112 and north of sunrise highway.  winds stay north of due east at it's worst, and gain a more northerly component as the storm tracks ene.

[weatherbear5]

2 minutes ago, romba said:

2m temps on UKIE

I can almost guarantee it’s under-doing CAD there. Models NEVER handle that right

[Rjay]

Fyi, the site I posted is not user friendly

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Moves more and more SE with the snow each run 

I would hope so. The last 2 runs gave Albany 2 ft, this one still gives it over a ft. Still not right. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, Rjay said:

Fyi, the site I posted is not user friendly

Thanks for posting all of that BTW. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nyc is at an inch and snowmap shows 9 inches... there’s just no precip 

Ratios lower on the coast on ukie due to surface temps and possibly lack of banding. I still say gfs/ukie are both playing catch-up in opposite directions.

[David-LI]

euro started 

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Ratios lower on the coast on ukie due to surface temps and possibly lack of banding. I still say gfs/ukie are both playing catch-up in opposite directions.

Agree 100%. They have both been on crack for different reasons. Thats why I have been saying Euro/CMC blend best way to go. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Too busy at work to look deeper.  Use this link and post what you find.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/new-jersey/sea-level-pressure/20201218-0000z.html

Thanks. Didn’t see charts with mid level low tracks but overall looks a little warm for a track like that both at the surface and at 850mb. The 850 zero line makes it to about I-195 I’d say. Surface temps also look a little warm. 1-1.5” liquid for NYC and Long Island, less than 1” north of the Tappan Zee I’d guess. 
 

Edit disregard the less than 1” liquid amounts north of the Tappan Zee, was looking at the wrong chart. Plenty of liquid up to I-90. 

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Thanks. Didn’t see charts with mid level low tracks but overall looks a little warm for a track like that both at the surface and at 850mb. The 850 zero line makes it to about I-195 I’d say. Surface temps also look a little warm. 1-1.5” liquid for NYC and Long Island, less than 1” north of the Tappan Zee I’d guess. 
 

Edit disregard the less than 1” liquid amounts north of the Tappan Zee, was looking at the wrong chart. Plenty of liquid up to I-90. 

Thanks.  I never checked.  Pivotalweather has it

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=700th&rh=2020121412&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

watch for sleet LI and s of I80 which is treated like 10 to 1 in the snow ratios...bad news for southern edge if sleet develops. Those 10 to 1 ratios won't work with sleet involved... slash by ~2/3rds once the sleet develops. 

I really don't see sleet being much of an issue honestly. Once the coastal develops it should flip the winds around to northeasterly and you will have some dynamic cooling as the low slowly deepens. This storm reminds me so much of a slightly more progressive version of PDII. It even looks similar at H5.

[weatherbear5]

Euro is gonna be interesting... a few conflicting signals... higher heights along the east coast, but the 50/50 low is in a better spot which should, in theory, help to better lock the high in place

[mikem81]

[Yanksfan]

Just now, weatherbear5 said:

Euro is gonna be interesting... a few conflicting signals... higher heights along the east coast, but the 50/50 low is in a better spot which should, in theory, help to better lock the high in place

It looks like it’s south and east to me. Hard to tell with the 24 hr panels.

[MJO812]

Shift towards euro ?

[Gravity Wave]

Euro is clearly improved, although it still tries to hold the heaviest precip back across PA. Not a huge deal given its low resolution.

[David-LI]

Low stalls east of ACY for about 6 hours as it weakens and moves away. Should be a great run for most on this sub

[nycsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Shift towards euro ?

Think you mean  gfs?

[NJsnow89]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Shift towards euro ?

Towards gfs** corrected it for you bud

[David-LI]

12z euro totals

[Allsnow]

Never bet against a block!!!! GFS ftw. This is nyc storm! Finally that sne tight gradient is showing up 

[jm1220]

Looks like a consensus building finally. Euro improved a little from 6z to my eyes. 

[mikem81]

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The whole forum will like this one. I'll take my foot and run. 

[Blizzardo]

If she stalls east of AC.. its game on for the really big totals.  Can only squeeze out so much with fast movers. 

[Northof78]

Now every model is in almost perfect agreement for 12" - 18" almost area wide...very nice

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a consensus building finally. Euro improved a little from 6z to my eyes. 

 

It improved alot, and gave us extra 15 miles of breathing room so stay in the good stuff...

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Never bet against a block!!!! GFS ftw. This is nyc storm! Finally that sne tight gradient is showing up 

Not even close to what the GFS has been showing past 2 days. This is what cmc/euro blend has been showing though.