Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

I’m 15 miles west of you near Piscataway. We always get mixing

if mixing is on the table we will mix. Usually everyone at sea level will. In March 2018 I had four inches in one storm that elevated areas had double digits.

[weatherbear5]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Temp profiles will be interesting... high looks to be in a good spot there

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Looking more and more likely we can start locking in 12”+ for the metro. As always with these big systems someone will sit under banding and approach 2’. I’m still hesitant for the south shore. Could easily get on the wrong side of the coastal front at some point

South shore may get less snow because of warmer BL, not necessarily mixing, north of Southern may see better ratios

[psv88]

1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

Temp profiles will be interesting... high looks to be in a good spot there

thats a blizzard as depicted

[weatherpruf]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Either 2016 then maybe 2018 ?

The last March storm in 2018, many came close. Been quiet since.

[SACRUS]

looking like a start time of between 3 and 6pm Wed and ends by noonish on Thursday.  Best rates and heaviest bands 10PM - 4Am.  

 

QPF : 1.15 - 1.45 = 8 - 14 inches looks like a good bet north of Freehold into Newark / NYC

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

if mixing is on the table we will mix. Usually everyone at sea level will. In March 2018 I had four inches in one storm that elevated areas had double digits.

That was because the surface was too warm.  That storm didn't have much sleet

[wdrag]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

WOW...  25mm light orange is 1" melted in 12 hrs.  still big. my experience, often the big qpf has sleet and rain.  In this case... i dont have much to look at but I'm wary of ALL snow in 1.5" qpf unless clearly the soundings support.  You all are on top of this.  Hang on... even if we don't get top 20 snow, some folks on LI and NJ are probably going to wish it was powder.  It just looks a little dangerous to me with sleet slashing through the air on gusty winds or wet snow pasting on the NJ coast and parts of LI.  6" 32-33F wet snow is my threshold for widespread power outages.  It first begins with 4" wet snow.  Talk after 4p. 

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

thats a blizzard as depicted

Really? I don’t see winds meeting blizzard criteria.

[psv88]

Just now, David-LI said:

Really? I don’t see winds meeting blizzard criteria.

Suffolk east and jersey shore yes

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I think everyone up to I80 will mix but this is yet to be determined. It's going to be a mess I95 in Nj and LI after the initial thump. Maybe UVV will overcome but whenever, the dry slot arrives, then I think thereafter we look at sleet and small flake snow...if indeed the dry slot arrives with maybe a chance of a little bigger flakes on the swan song Thursday sunrise or after. Again, this presumes a sNJ coast hugger overnight Wednesday before shifting eastward. Let's see the EC, and really some more model cycles.   Future NAM has to backdown too if we go with the CMC/RGEM/GFS.  Plenty of unknowns. Patience    

 

I'm guessing you mean clean up would be difficult if a mix happened after a big thump; but may not as much if its sleet. It would be rain that would make the stuff tough to deal with. And our ER's are already stressed. 

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

WOW...  25mm light orange is 1" melted in 12 hrs.  still big. my experience, often the big qpf has sleet and rain.  In this case... i dont have much to look at but I'm wary of ALL snow in 1.5" qpf unless clearly the soundings support.  You all are on top of this.  Hang on... even if we don't get top 20 snow, some folks on LI and NJ are probably going to wish it was powder.  It just looks a little dangerous to me with sleet slashing through the air on gusty winds or wet snow pasting on the NJ coast and parts of LI.  6" 32-33F wet snow is my threshold for widespread power outages.  It first begins with 4" wet snow.  Talk after 4p. 

This would be my concern. I'm moving the generator into position. 

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That was because the surface was too warm.  That storm didn't have much sleet

Now that I remember, you are correct. It was awhile ago. The rates weren't enough to overcome the warm surfaces here, they had better rates elsewhere. I think it was the March 2017 storm where they got much more north and west while we got a lot of sleet.

[weatherbear5]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

thats a blizzard as depicted

According to the map posted in the NE forum, LI gets less than 10 inches of snow on 2.0 inches of liquid.

Clearly there’s some kinda precip issues there

[Rjay]

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Great track 

[weatherbear5]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

That’s the UKmet, correct? I have a very hard time believing there’s a lot of P-type issues at the coast with that kind of track...

[SnowGoose69]

One note with this event is looking at the forecast soundings in advance of it there is not an excessive amount of mid-level dry air so this sucker will precipitate fast vs having a 2/2003 virga like period.

[nycsnow]

Ukmet track is perfect it’s lack of precip why there weren’t any crazy totals 

[Rjay]

Albany still gets a foot somehow lol

 

 

[weatherbear5]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Ukmet track is perfect it’s lack of precip why there weren’t any crazy totals 

It ain’t lack of precip. 1.5-2.0+ inches liquid from Tappan Zee East.

Some kinda sneaky warm layer

[Rjay]

Another weenie map

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, weatherbear5 said:

It ain’t lack of precip. 1.5-2.0+ inches liquid from Tappan Zee East.

Some kinda sneaky warm layer

I don't think so because I believe it snow maps count sleet as snow so it probably thinks surface temps are over 32 or something

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Albany still gets a foot somehow lol

 

 

Not as crazy as last 2 runs but still a good amount of precip far N and W and still warms coast. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

It ain’t lack of precip. 1.5-2.0+ inches liquid from Tappan Zee East.

Some kinda sneaky warm layer

Impossible to really say without surface temp charts and the 700/850 low tracks. The surface low tracks pretty close to best case scenario IMO for heavy snow but maybe the 700/850 lows are a lot further NW. 

[mikem81]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

NOW THAT IS A PERFECT TRACK FOR NYC

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not as crazy as last 2 runs but still a good amount of precip far N and W and still warms coast. 

2" in Long Beach on that map and 9" where I live now. My move up here may be paying dividends lol. (Not saying I believe this whatsoever)

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Another weenie map

 

Moves more and more SE with the snow each run 

[romba]

2m temps on UKIE

[David-LI]

How’s the GEFS looking ?