Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is one of the most straightforward forecasts that I can remember for a snowstorm.

12-18" areawide except for slightly less on the South facing shore of Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens and SI which will probably mix at the end. Those areas should still see 6"+.

We'll probably get a narrow band of 18"+ but it's too early to know exactly where that's going to setup. 

Models haven't wavered much for days, just little ticks here and there. 

Don't expect any major revelations in the next day or so that would change that. 

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

This is probably not your storm but I could be wrong. I don't think North of 84 sees warning level snows.

We are definitely teetering here. Right now I'm still thinking around 8-12 but bust options very much still in play and potentially increasing. When this kind of confluence exists I start to feel nervous. 

[jm1220]

Just now, Big Jims Videos said:

I still see coastal Monmouth/northern ocean being extremely difficult to nail down until now time.  0-8 inches is a reasonable guess.  What are the 12z models showing wind wise for coastal areas? I'm up in hunterdon now and we just flipped over to all snow as a side note.  

GFS has perhaps 50+ mph gusts for the NJ shore, but unfortunately for snow there the winds are onshore. Inland Monmouth towards I-95 may be worlds different from Asbury Park.

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is one of the most straightforward forecasts that I can remember for a snowstorm.

12-18" areawide except for slightly less on the South facing shore of Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens and SI which will probably mix at the end. Those areas should still see 6"+.

We'll probably get a narrow band of 18"+ but it's too early to know exactly where that's going to setup. 

And it’s been modeled for some time.  GFS operational had it at 10 days, and euro had the pattern in the long range.  What is the deal with models grasping the blocking in the NAO region better than say, the pacific and west coast pattern  feature like PNA?  When we had the block blocking storms in the 2000’s we could get early depictions on the Euro and they hardly budged for 5 days.  Maybe I am remembering wrong,  but comes to mind.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

It's been said before, but modeled precip is often inflated along the periphery. You have to look at the mid-level forcing mechanisms to see where the northern deform band will set up and drop significant totals... north of that corridor, it turns into a non-event very quickly. Even if HPN jackpots, warning-criteria snowfall to I-90 seems very unlikely.

I agree. I don't expect i90 to have warning level criteria, maybe a few inches. I fully expect I84 to have warning level snows. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, hate to say it but there will be a crazy cutoff with a system dealing with this much confluence. 

could end up like 2/5/10 but with the cutoff 75-100  miles north of that storm

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

We are definitely teetering here. Right now I'm still thinking around 8-12 but bust options very much still in play and potentially increasing. When this kind of confluence exists I start to feel nervous. 

To this end the next two euro runs will be highly telling. 84 south is all but good to go here. Those of us north will sweat this out.

[Big Jims Videos]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS has perhaps 50+ mph gusts for the NJ shore, but unfortunately for snow there the winds are onshore. Inland Monmouth towards I-95 may be worlds different from Asbury Park.

Thank you.  Allentown could have a foot. Belmar zilch.  

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

To this end the next two euro runs will be highly telling. 84 south is all but good to go here. Those of us north will sweat this out.

Yes I95 to I84 basically locked in for a significant snowfall. South and north of there a little iffy but rather be near the mixing line then on northern fringe in a confluence setup.

[sussexcountyobs]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it won't get up to the east end of LI-no model has that.

I know. Just saying for my area that's a perfect track.

[MJO812]

Ukie is a bit east of 0z 

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

And it’s been modeled for some time.  GFS operational had it at 10 days, and euro had the pattern in the long range.  What is the deal with models grasping the blocking in the NAO region better than say, the pacific and west coast pattern  feature like PNA?  When we had the block blocking storms in the 2000’s we could get early depictions on the Euro and they hardly budged for 5 days.  Maybe I am remembering wrong,  but comes to mind.  

Euro EPS has been  very very steady through 06z..just ever so slight southward drift.   If the GFS is to win this southward track, the UK and NAM need to come south, and then the EC will join.  12z UK may have some precursor trend soon??  For now...stay the course on everything... allow NWS office and WPC collaborative processes work up the 330PM updated graphics.   Ensembles can steady the model disparity. A snow storm is coming to the northeast an impressive 6 hour thump Wednesday evening-night.

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yes I95 to I84 basically locked in for a significant snowfall. South and north of there a little iffy but rather be near the mixing line then on northern fringe in a confluence setup.

The fringe has bitten us in the rear end before and might just do it again here. 

 

Thinking a failure mode is still 3-6 or marginal warning snows at this point. 

[Northof78]

This is the time when you expect all models to converge (2- 2.5 days), and we are seeing just that....

[mikem81]

[wdrag]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is one of the most straightforward forecasts that I can remember for a snowstorm.

12-18" areawide except for slightly less on the South facing shore of Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens and SI which will probably mix at the end. Those areas should still see 6"+.

We'll probably get a narrow band of 18"+ but it's too early to know exactly where that's going to setup. 

watch for sleet LI and s of I80 which is treated like 10 to 1 in the snow ratios...bad news for southern edge if sleet develops. Those 10 to 1 ratios won't work with sleet involved... slash by ~2/3rds once the sleet develops. 

[jm1220]

Yep, if the more amped models come south a little today it would be a great sign IMO.

[Rjay]

Ukie finally not printing out 2' for Albany. 

[dave0176]

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

watch for sleet LI and s of I80 which is treated like 10 to 1 in the snow ratios...bad news for southern edge if sleet develops. Those 10 to 1 ratios won't work with sleet involved... slash by ~2/3rds once the sleet develops. 

Me being in eastern middlesex across from Staten Island I’m assuming we will have mixing issues as usual.

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Ukie finally not printing out 2' for Albany. 

LOL, how much now?

[Rjay]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

LOL, how much now?

Not sure yet without the better maps but it looks like much less.

[NJsnow89]

2 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

Me being in eastern middlesex across from Staten Island I’m assuming we will have mixing issues as usual.

I’m 15 miles west of you near Piscataway. We always get mixing

[Rjay]

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, if the more amped models come south a little today it would be a great sign IMO.

Looking more and more likely we can start locking in 12”+ for the metro. As always with these big systems someone will sit under banding and approach 2’. I’m still hesitant for the south shore. Could easily get on the wrong side of the coastal front at some point

[mikem81]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Well need to wait a few mins for the pivotalweather mpas update....

[kat5hurricane]

38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

March 21, 2018 probably

March 2018 was a big fat tease in my neck of the woods. Historic storms all over the place but here, north, west, east, south. January 2016 was the last 12+ incher here in Whitestone and for most of us in the immediate NYC area.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Looking more and more likely we can start locking in 12”+ for the metro. As always with these big systems someone will sit under banding and approach 2’. I’m still hesitant for the south shore. Could easily get on the wrong side of the coastal front at some point

It's going to come down to whether the nam and its warm layer is correct and we see alot of mixing esp for central and even northern nj

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

Me being in eastern middlesex across from Staten Island I’m assuming we will have mixing issues as usual.

I think everyone up to I80 will mix but this is yet to be determined. It's going to be a mess I95 in Nj and LI after the initial thump. Maybe UVV will overcome but whenever, the dry slot arrives, then I think thereafter we look at sleet and small flake snow...if indeed the dry slot arrives with maybe a chance of a little bigger flakes on the swan song Thursday sunrise or after. Again, this presumes a sNJ coast hugger overnight Wednesday before shifting eastward. Let's see the EC, and really some more model cycles.   Future NAM has to backdown too if we go with the CMC/RGEM/GFS.  Plenty of unknowns. Patience    

 

[weatherpruf]

28 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Thank you.  Allentown could have a foot. Belmar zilch.  

Having lived in the area for 58 years, if Belmar gets zilch don't expect the city to get a big hit.

[Irish]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's going to come down to whether the nam and its warm layer is correct and we see alot of mixing esp for central and even northern nj

I don't think that happens, I think it's a snow event for I95 and up. Certainly N and W.