Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[David-LI]

12z CMC totals 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Took close for comfort for Long Island....

Its fine

[friedmators]

8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

GFS took me from 1 inch to 5.5.  Trend is my friend? 

Ride the SREF? Total-SNO at POU below

[sussexcountyobs]

Would like to see this go a little more north before heading due east.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Would like to see this go a little more north before heading due east.

You mean south =)

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

12z CMC totals 

Looks similar to RGEM not shocked may be getting closer to nailing down the axis of heaviest snow. 12Z Euro a big run.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Took close for comfort for Long Island....

It's just about perfect verbatim. Montauk might have issues on that run. I'm thinking it's legit that some of us will be sweating how far north the sleet line gets on the dual pol and it may come close to the south shore. That would be the blend of models right now between the more suppressed GFS and models like the Euro and NAM. 

[jm1220]

Even the GFS now has the low getting up to near Cape May, so pretty sure that happens. Our outcome is what happens after that. 

[nycsnow]

12-18 area wide on cmc

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

You mean south =)

No. Too far south and then east, Might put me in the lower qpf on the northern extent of the precip.  

[weatherbear5]

One thing I think we will continue to see for sure is a tightening of the gradient on the northern end of wherever the northern extent does set up.

it wouldn’t surprise me if the widespread  heavy snow on the far northern end more banded in nature... models might not have the resolution to pick up on that so instead of picking up on where the band will set up and putting QPF there, they end up vomiting QPF over a larger area

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Would like to see this go a little more north before heading due east.

Yeah me too. I think it's going to make it to ACY, maybe a tad farther north, and then east.  

[David-LI]

Last time this sub got a foot of snow? I don’t even remember 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

12-18 area wide on cmc

Cmc keeps trimming the amounts further north . Nice and cold run. 

[HVSnowLover]

20 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Id be worried about sleet along and SE of 95 if the track came so close....

Maybe it’s sleet I don’t know I’ll take my chances with a big storm like this. Rather risk mixing then fringing in this kind of setup 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Last time this sub got a foot of snow? I don’t even remember 

Either 2016 then maybe 2018 ?

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yeah me too. I think it's going to make it to ACY, maybe a tad farther north, and then east.  

For me, I like just north of A.C. then NE to east end of Long Island. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

For me, I like just north of A.C. then NE to east end of Long Island. 

it won't get up to the east end of LI-no model has that.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

One thing I think we will continue to see for sure is a tightening of the gradient on the northern end of wherever the northern extent does set up.

it wouldn’t surprise me if the widespread  heavy snow on the far northern end more banded in nature... models might not have the resolution to pick up on that so instead of picking up on where the band will set up and putting QPF there, they end up vomiting QPF over a larger area

Agree. My guess is sharp cutoff somewhere between I84 and Kingston. Lived in Mid HV for two winters and these storms are often not your friend but sometimes can get lucky.

[Northof78]

I think all models (GFS, EURO, CMC, RGEM, [NAM sortive]) basically narrowing in on a 12-18" storm from C NJ/LI/Metro northward for about 50-75 miles. However yes, the confluence is becoming more pronounced on the northern edge....

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Last time this sub got a foot of snow? I don’t even remember 

March 21, 2018 probably

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree. My guess is sharp cutoff somewhere between I84 and Kingston. Lived in Mid HV for two winters and these storms are often not your friend but sometimes can get lucky.

I'm 30 miles north of 84 in Sullivan. This will get precarious. BGM has watches up for Southern Wayne which is close to me for potential totals over 6". Interesting to see what today brings.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree. My guess is sharp cutoff somewhere between I84 and Kingston. Lived in Mid HV for two winters and these storms are often not your friend but sometimes can get lucky.

I don't think so. Most real models give I84 vicinity around a foot or more. I think the sharp cutoff is going to be around I90. 

[NJwx85]

This is one of the most straightforward forecasts that I can remember for a snowstorm.

12-18" areawide except for slightly less on the South facing shore of Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens and SI which will probably mix at the end. Those areas should still see 6"+.

We'll probably get a narrow band of 18"+ but it's too early to know exactly where that's going to setup. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree. My guess is sharp cutoff somewhere between I84 and Kingston. Lived in Mid HV for two winters and these storms are often not your friend but sometimes can get lucky.

Yep, hate to say it but there will be a crazy cutoff with a system dealing with this much confluence. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I'm 30 miles north of 84 in Sullivan. This will get precarious. BGM has watches up for Southern Wayne which is close to me for potential totals over 6". Interesting to see what today brings.

This is probably not your storm but I could be wrong. I don't think North of 84 sees warning level snows.

[cleetussnow]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's just about perfect verbatim. Montauk might have issues on that run. I'm thinking it's legit that some of us will be sweating how far north the sleet line gets on the dual pol and it may come close to the south shore. That would be the blend of models right now between the more suppressed GFS and models like the Euro and NAM. 

Yeah sometimes you need to be close to the rain to get the good stuff and LI is right where you want it.  Looks good.  

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I don't think so. Most real models give I84 vicinity around a foot or more. I think the sharp cutoff is going to be around I90. 

Yea I lived in New Paltz i think being on east side of Hudson River in these setups is an advantage so places like Poughkeepsie may still do well. It’s the opposite when cold air is marginal then west of the Hudson can do a lot better.

[Big Jims Videos]

I still see coastal Monmouth/northern ocean being extremely difficult to nail down until now time.  0-8 inches is a reasonable guess.  What are the 12z models showing wind wise for coastal areas? I'm up in hunterdon now and we just flipped over to all snow as a side note.  

[Juliancolton]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I don't think so. Most real models give I84 vicinity around a foot or more. I think the sharp cutoff is going to be around I90. 

It's been said before, but modeled precip is often inflated along the periphery. You have to look at the mid-level forcing mechanisms to see where the northern deform band will set up and drop significant totals... north of that corridor, it turns into a non-event very quickly. Even if HPN jackpots, warning-criteria snowfall to I-90 seems very unlikely.