jm1220 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, TriPol said: GFS caved To an extent but it also hits the confluence brick wall a little earlier and takes this ENE after Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS was farther N and W, It's still playing catch up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: No. It’s a non event in sne Thankfully we are nyc metro sub 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs did tick west but it is still cold It’s also a fast mover, it looks to be all over and done by very early Thursday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s also a fast mover, it looks to be all over and done by very early Thursday morning I think the gfs comes north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mikem81 said: I am on WESTERN LI. DO I NEED TO WORRY ABOUT RAIN????? NAM LOOKS ALL SLeet Rain is always a concern if you live on the coast. GFS had no mixing issues though, plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Still can't 100% count out GFS I think. Wouldn't be shocked if something like the GFS happened but brought north a tad more than it already is. Areas in and around NYC should still be very good for totals of at least 6-10". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Guessing GFS is roughly 12" to 18" area-wide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’d really want to see other models come SE before believing the GFS much. I don’t see this having a hard time getting snow into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 That said if you shift the GFS north 50 miles or so that’s still great for most of us other than maybe Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To an extent but it also hits the confluence brick wall a little earlier and takes this ENE after Delaware. In the end it wasn't much different further north. That confluence can't be denied. The gfs actually takes it ESE eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Gfs trended a bit certainly didn’t cave but it’ll get there. I think the RGEN axis of heaviest snow is going to end up pretty accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS isn’t even really north. It just consolidates into a stronger low and tucks it into the coast. The N/S differences between the 0, 6, and 12Z are very small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: In the end it wasn't much different further north. That confluence can't be denied. The gfs actually takes it ESE eventually. It was further north and west. It will still correct further and precip shield will be farther north. FWIW it now gives me 5 instead of 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Gfs trended a bit certainly didn’t cave but it’ll get there. I think the RGEN axis of heaviest snow is going to end up pretty accurate. Somewhere between Philly and NYC will get the jack if RGEM is closest to reality. That band will crush whoever ends up under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: GFS isn’t even really north. It just consolidates into a stronger low and tucks it into the coast. The N/S differences between the 0, 6, and 12Z are very small. That's my thinking right now and most models share this idea, it's just that they take the low a bit further north before it goes east. I'd be more worried if I lived in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Somewhere between Philly and NYC will get the jack if RGEM is closest to reality. That band will crush whoever ends up under it. Id be worried about sleet along and SE of 95 if the track came so close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Anyone got a decent clown map for the GFS? Tidbits seems to be bugged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mikem81 said: Id be worried about sleet along and SE of 95 if the track came so close.... Those 700 and 850 low tracks will really be key to seeing how far north the warm mid level air can make it. I have no idea where those track on the RGEM but if those go near or NW of you and the snow maps show 12"+, the snow maps are likely garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, David-LI said: Anyone got a decent clown map for the GFS? Tidbits seems to be bugged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, friedmators said: GFS took me from 1 inch to 5.5. Trend is my friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: GFS took me from 1 inch to 5.5. Trend is my friend? Definitely came noticeably north at least with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: GFS took me from 1 inch to 5.5. Trend is my friend? 1.2 to 2.7 here. Trend still needs a bit more to go to be my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 A nice reference i thought for predicting snow locations. Rules of Thumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 CMC running. Looks a tad SE so far. Was a monster run last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Canadian looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: CMC running. Looks a tad SE so far. Was a monster run last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: Tony that’s 6z isn’t it? 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Took close for comfort for Long Island.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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