Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Every model was until 2 days before when the SREF  showed the big north trend .

Confluence was weaker which might be the same thing here again. Majority of our big storms were modeled to the south of us.

I have been going to sleep at 3am every night to view the models. It will suck if I did that for no reason.

I used to do that-not worth it anymore...sometimes if I haappen to wake up I'll come down and check to run-my wife thinks I'm nuts lol

[weatherbear5]

In other news, the wave we need to monitor out west will be well onshore by 12z today, so we should have very, very good sampling for the 12z runs

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree totally, also can't look at every single model run of every model or will drive yourself crazy, well I do that but I also know how to take them with a grain of salt even though I look at them. 

It always amazes me that guys that have been on here for longer than I have still fall for this storm after storm. I'm on here over 10 years now. You're never going to get every model run to spit out an identical run, run after run. Often times you have a drastic change after the pieces come on shore but that seems to be happening less and less lately. 

[Doorman]

17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

 

you said it was the same as the Euro... unless it was another riddle 

We posted the weaker euro prog sir

 

nice work for a mod......

 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

where are you now?   You need to change your location on your avatar

I'm in Clarkstown, NY now. It's part of Rockland County. I'm only about 15 minutes East from where I used to live. It shouldn't have a major impact in a storm like this.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, weatherbear5 said:

In other news, the wave we need to monitor out west will be well onshore by 12z today, so we should have very, very good sampling for the 12z runs

That’s probably the only thing that matters at this stage.  I don’t see anything substantial shifting with the block or the high.  If the shortwave is stronger than expected it could be able to cut more north.  I’m still wary here because historically with this sort of pattern in place at 500/surface we’ve never seen a storm like this cause the metro to go snow-Sleet or rain-back go snow.  Never in the last 40 years  

[SnoSki14]

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

Writing on wall Ant. We always knock these amped nam runs but often they prove correct with warning. NAM really warm for coast and city. 

Nam is garbage outside 36-48 hours.

My final prediction is models trend more offshore/south beginning later tonight or tomorrow up until the storm happens. 

I like a gfs/euro compromise.

The high won't be denied. I think some of the people that live further north in SNE are getting gaslit by the more amped models. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Nam is garbage outside 36-48 hours.

My final prediction is models trend more offshore/south beginning later tonight or tomorrow up until the storm happens. 

I like a gfs/euro compromise.

The high won't be denied. I think some of the people that live further north in SNE are getting gaslit by the more amped models. 

The key with the NAM as I said yesterday is consistency.  If the next two runs show almost the same solution as the 06z you can trust it’s onto something.  If it waffles 75 miles southeast again this run you can more or less ignore the NAM til inside 36.  The NAM sometimes gets these things right at 60 but the dead giveaway of that is run to run consistency which is very rare by the NAM at that range otherwise. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That’s probably the only thing that matters at this stage.  I don’t see anything substantial shifting with the block or the high.  If the shortwave is stronger than expected it could be able to cut more north.  I’m still wary here because historically with this sort of pattern in place at 500/surface we’ve never seen a storm like this cause the metro to go snow-Sleet or rain-back go snow.  Never in the last 40 years  

what would it usually do-stay all snow?

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It always amazes me that guys that have been on here for longer than I have still fall for this storm after storm. I'm on here over 10 years now. You're never going to get every model run to spit out an identical run, run after run. Often times you have a drastic change after the pieces come on shore but that seems to be happening less and less lately. 

Yes. I look at every model but pretty much only care what Euro shows and then what NAM shows under 48 hours. The rest is just noise to either support or detract. But with this particular storm the model agreement has actually been better than usual.   

[friedmators]

Appreciate it. I live near Edison. Getting worried about the north trends 

I used to live in Edison and it was always rough. I’m a little west of 287/78 intersection now and feel loads better.


.

[Irishmick9]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Man, areas between I80 and I84 are in prime position for this one.    I hope you guys are pumped.  

I don’t post often since weather is boring here in Vernon. Super pumped. Can see Mountain Creek from my house. They must be beyond pumped.

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Doorman said:

We posted the weaker euro prog sir

 

nice work for a mod......

 

 you're a total clown 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

what would it usually do-stay all snow?

Yes.  Or go to rain or sleet and stay as rain or sleet.  The flip back just doesn’t occur practically ever.  December 2002 was a case where it did that but the setup wasn’t anywhere near this good or really close overall in the pattern 

[nycsnow]

Just now, Rjay said:

 you're a total clown 

I’m telling you, you’re never going to win with him he copy’s and paste wpc and that’s his go to

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

At this stage you can pretty much know within 20 miles of where someone is located just by which models they are siding with and what direction they are praying for the next model runs to go.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Irishmick9 said:

I don’t post often since weather is boring here in Vernon. Super pumped. Can see Mountain Creek from my house. They must be beyond pumped.

Local ski hills could literally open overnight with this....

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yes. I look at every model but pretty much only care what Euro shows and then what NAM shows under 48 hours. The rest is just noise to either support or detract. But with this particular storm the model agreement has actually been better than usual.   

The best thing you can do is try to understand why the models are doing what they are doing. You have warm air advection attempting to plow into a dome of cold, dry air to our North courtesy of the 1038mb high. Even without the coastal storm you would have several inches of snow just from the normal processes involved with running warm moist air up over cold dry air. Whenever you have a coastal you need to see where the mid-level centers, particularly 700 and 850mb track. If they get too close to the coast, then that's where you end up with mixing issues. I honestly don't see that happening. Most models bring the storm up to about ACY before kicking it East. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yes.  Or go to rain or sleet and stay as rain or sleet.  The flip back just doesn’t occur practically ever.  December 2002 was a case where it did that but the setup wasn’t anywhere near this good or really close overall in the pattern 

January 2010 was a memorable time this happened (I think I have the year right, i know it was a storm that went snow to sleet/rain and then dumped like 15 inches of snow in 4 hours at night). I believe Nemo also went like this with snow to mix to snow. Agree it's sort of rare but does happen.    

[billgwx]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's Monday morning and the storm isn't supposed to start until late Wednesday afternoon. Watches typically aren't hoisted until 36-48 hours prior to the start. I'm sure if everything holds you will see watches with the afternoon update. 

Too early for a watch. Very long lead times just lead to "watch fatigue," needlessly add to everyone's work, and invariably something goes wrong. We all know it's coming.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

The best thing you can do is try to understand why the models are doing what they are doing. You have warm air advection attempting to plow into a dome of cold, dry air to our North courtesy of the 1038mb high. Even without the coastal storm you would have several inches of snow just from the normal processes involved with running warm moist air up over cold dry air. Whenever you have a coastal you need to see where the mid-level centers, particularly 700 and 850mb track. If they get too close to the coast, then that's where you end up with mixing issues. I honestly don't see that happening. Most models bring the storm up about ACY before kicking it East. 

The 700/850 lows may not be stacked though so they could be further north of the surface low.  I would still think sleet or mixing is more likely over SE NJ or central or eastern LI.  Taking it west of there in this setup really seems tough  

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

January 2010 was a memorable time this happened (I think I have the year right, i know it was a storm that went snow to sleet/rain and then dumped like 15 inches of snow in 4 hours at night). I believe Nemo also went like this with snow to mix to snow. Agree it's sort of rare but does happen.    

Also a different setup.  I believe it was a Miller B as was Nemo.  I don’t recall a case  with this good of a 50/50 and high with a semi Miller A type setup where places west of Suffolk county saw long duration changeover and then went back to snow 

[nycsnow]

Just now, billgwx said:

Too early for a watch. Very long lead times just lead to "watch fatigue," needlessly add to everyone's work, and invariably something goes wrong. We all know it's coming.

If models hold seems like most of area would qualify for blizzard criteria... that watch is discontinued it would be a winter storm watch to blizzard warning if conditions warranted?? I remember some watches got discontinued

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

At this stage you can pretty much know within 20 miles of where someone is located just by which models they are siding with and what direction they are praying for the next model runs to go.

Yea admittedly on LI I might be a little nervous (especially south shore). City on NW I've seen no reason to get nervous yet...

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, billgwx said:

Too early for a watch. Very long lead times just lead to "watch fatigue," needlessly add to everyone's work, and invariably something goes wrong. We all know it's coming.

Yup exactly. Wonder if we'll get the very rare, yet slightly overrated blizzard watch with this one.

[nycsnow]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Yup exactly. Wonder if we'll get the very rare, yet slightly overrated blizzard watch with this one.

I just asked above.... If I’m not mistaken didnt they discontinue that ?

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

If models hold seems like most of area would qualify for blizzard criteria... that watch is discontinued it would be a winter storm watch to blizzard warning if conditions warranted?? I remember some watches got discontinued

I think the blizzard watch was done away with....

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yup exactly. Wonder if we'll get the very rare, yet slightly overrated blizzard watch with this one.

 

They don't issue those anymore

[weatherbear5]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That’s probably the only thing that matters at this stage.  I don’t see anything substantial shifting with the block or the high.  If the shortwave is stronger than expected it could be able to cut more north.  I’m still wary here because historically with this sort of pattern in place at 500/surface we’ve never seen a storm like this cause the metro to go snow-Sleet or rain-back go snow.  Never in the last 40 years  

Yup.

Coastal people should not celebrate a more amped wave out west. We’ve pretty much run out of runway with the confluence getting ready to exit stage right. Any delay in that S/W and we more than likely turn to rain at the coast for at least a time.

Inland folks do want the stronger, slower s/w I guess though

[billgwx]

Just now, nycsnow said:

If models hold seems like most of area would qualify for blizzard criteria... that watch is discontinued it would be a winter storm watch to blizzard warning if conditions warranted?? I remember some watches got discontinued

Blizzard watches got discontinued, just because of that one March bust a few years ago. When we've issued them otherwise they worked out quite nicely.

I think the rationale was that we all freak out when the S word is mentioned, throwing the B word in there too early gets everyone jacked up way too much too soon.

Could go winter storm watch to blizzard warning, also winter storm watch to winter storm warning and then issue a shorter fused blizzard warning. We don't typically do that, the Sterling office has.