Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[NJsnow89]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The storm is likely going to correct south soon. The high is too powerful to the north. A gfs/euro compromise is most likely.

It’s possible but hard to go against all the models except gfs

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

It’s possible but hard to go against all the models except gfs

Its amazing how everyone was saying how this storm can't come north because of the confluence and here we are , models are coming north.

[NJsnow89]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its amazing how everyone was saying how this storm can't come north because of the confluence and here we are , models are coming north.

Yeah and we are running out of time now. Oh well. Always next time 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its amazing how everyone was saying how this storm can't come north because of the confluence and here we are , models are coming north.

Today's storm was supposed to keep trending north too and it did to an extent but now it's a lot weaker, further south than initially forecast. 

I was worried yesterday but I feel good about it today. 

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Yeah and we are running out of time now. Oh well. Always next time 

Still more than 48 hours away, I'd expect some waffling

[Doorman]

41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Your mustard must be in your eyes because either,

A. you're blind

B. you're a troll

C. you're a liar

 

Which is it?

The forecasted-----wpc map

was issued out of their office at  10:08pm EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME----  last night----

almost 5 hours before the euro is available

he must be a  joker or a genius......  

we done here

 

 

[weatherbear5]

10 hours ago, David-LI said:

Low is almost in Mexico 

The 6z run is what I was alluding to. Too amped isn’t a good thing

At this point we’d rather a flatter wave that moves faster, even if it means it gets squashed somewhat.

 A slower, more amplified wave allows time for the confluence to slacken thus allowing it to run further north which is a warmer solution

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

an excellent list! Thanks Walt!  I cant wait to see your two day lists for the above locations plus MPO, NYC and EWR.  A couple of notes - the number of 20" snowfalls will increase since these are the ones most affected by two day totals.

That will put both Feb 1961 and Feb 1969 over the 20 inch mark at both JFK and LGA.   Jan 1996 and Feb 1983 will also go over the 20 inch mark (the latter at JFK at least.)  Boxing Day 2010 should be close to 20 inches at both.  I'm also curious to see what the full storm total was from Feb 1978 at MPO.  And I didn't know that JFK got 9.6 inches in one day in 1/88, I'd be curious to see if they hit double digits for that storm total as that was an era with few or no double digit snowstorms.

 

 

Below are the 65 largest storms recorded in NYC (Manhattan in this case) since 1870. Storm totals have to be 10 inches or greater to get on this list. There have been 15 storms of 10 inches or greater since 2000. Many of these would not be on Walts list as they overlap midnight. Walt's list is for snowfall in a 24 hour calendar day.

65 Largest Snowstorms All Time
Central Park in NYC
(through December 14, 2020)
Rank.Amount..Date
1……..27.5…..January 23, 2016
2……..26.9…..February 11-12, 2006
3……..25.8…..December 26-27, 1947
4……..21.0…..March 12-14, 1888
5……..20.9…..February 25-26, 2010
6……..20.2…..January 7-8, 1996
7……..20.0…..December 26-27, 2010
8……..19.8…..February 16-17, 2003
9……..19.0…..January 26-27, 2011
10…..18.1…..March 7-8, 1941
11…..18.1…..January 22-24, 1935
12…..18.0…..December 26, 1872
13…..17.7…..February 5-7, 1978
14…..17.6…..February 11-12, 1983
15…..17.5…..February 4-7, 1920
16…..17.4…..February 3-4, 1961
17…..16.0…..December 19-20, 1948
18…..16.0…..February 12-13, 1899
19…..15.3…..February 9-10, 1969
20…..15.2…..December 11-12, 1960
21…..14.5…..March 3-4, 1960
22…..14.5…..March 1-2, 1914
23…..14.0…..December 5-7, 2003
24…..13.8…..January 22-23, 2005
25…..13.7…..December 21-22, 1959
26…..13.6…..January 19-20, 1978
27…..13.0…..January 15-16, 1879
28…..13.0…..January 1-2, 1877
29…..12.8…..February 11, 1994
30…..12.7…..February 19, 1979
31…..12.7…..December 15, 1916
32…..12.5…..February 13-14 2014
33…..12.5…..February 7, 1967
34…..12.5…..January 12-13, 1964
35…..12.5…..February 20, 1921
36…..12.0…..December 30, 2000
37…..12.0…..February 9-10, 1926
38…..12.0…..March 15-16, 1896
39…..11.8…..March 19-20, 1958
40…..11.6…..March 18-19, 1956
41…..11.5…..January 2, 1925
42…..11.5…..January 21-22, 2014
43…..11.4…..December 24, 1912
44…..11.4…..February 8-9, 2013
45…..11.2…..December 26, 1933
46…..11.0…..February 3-4, 1876
47…..11.0…..January 24-25, 1905
48…..11.0…..February 4-5, 1907
49…..10.9…..December 19-20, 2009
50…..10.8…..February 4, 1995
51…..10.7…..February 20-21, 1947
52…..10.7…..February 16-17, 1996
53…..10.6…..March 13-14, 1993
54…..10.4…..February 3-4, 1926
55…..10.3…..January 28, 2004
56…..10.2…..April 3-4, 1915
57…..10.0…..April 13, 1875
58…..10.0…..March 2, 1896
59…..10.0…..January 27-28, 1897
60…..10.0…..November 26-27, 1898
61…..10.0…..February 17, 1902
62…..10.0…..January 23-24, 1908
63…..10.0…..January 14-15, 1910
64…..10.0…..February 11, 1933
65…..10.0…..February 10, 2010

 

[NJwx85]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yea I hope it goes further east.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Doorman said:

The forecasted-----wpc map

was issued out of their office at  10:08pm EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME----  last night----

almost 5 hours before the euro is available

he must be a  joker or a genius......  

we done here

 

 

 

 

you said it was the same as the Euro... unless it was another riddle 

[NJwx85]

36 minutes ago, friedmators said:

6z rgem hourly snowfall for posterity


.

That 4.8" in one hour is going to be crazy. The best dynamics are always just NW of the rain/snow line. 

[NJsnow89]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

That 4.8" in one hour is going to be crazy. The best dynamics are always just NW of the rain/snow line. 

Hey man, do you think this trends South any? Getting worried about the euro run

[billgwx]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The storm is likely going to correct south soon. The high is too powerful to the north. A gfs/euro compromise is most likely.

I've never seen a case where the low trended north with such a strong CAD in place. 

What i predict is that certain models will look amped the day before but the storm corrects south & east as it develops. 

January 2016? GFS was the most suppressed as usual with that storm, then the NAM/SREF came into view and corrected that fast as they appear to be doing now.

[Rjay]

Man, areas between I80 and I84 are in prime position for this one.    I hope you guys are pumped.  

[Brian5671]

Just now, billgwx said:

January 2016? GFS was the most suppressed as usual with that storm, then the NAM/SREF came into view and corrected that fast as they appear to be doing now.

Euro was suppressed with that too...

[HVSnowLover]

Not sure what the panic is about? 0Z Euro looked great. Can't worry about long range NAM at this point. 

[CIK62]

NWS still has no Watch for NYC.    Only in NW NJ and inland Monmouth County.

Their own probability of >8" here is 50%.

Guess next move is Warning for current  Watch areas, and a Watch for us after morning runs are examined?

[weatherbear5]

9 minutes ago, Doorman said:

The forecasted-----wpc map

was issued out of their office at  10:08pm EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME----  last night----

almost 5 hours before the euro is available

he must be a  joker or a genius......  

we done here

 

 

WPC snowfall probs for 4 and 8 inches of snow

if you’re going to use their forecast to play “riddle me this” and support your idea that there won’t be 6 inches of snow, at least use their full forecast and don’t cherry pick what you think makes you look right

it could still bust in NYC, but not as of what they’re forecasting now

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not sure what the panic is about? 0Z Euro looked great. Can't worry about long range NAM at this point. 

6z Euro went more north. These north ticks have to stop.

[billgwx]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Kuchera ratios are way overblown for this storm...does not account for wind for one. I ran them yesterday for the OKX long term forecast for laughs...15:1?? As usual with the big storms, 12:1 probably best inland and 10:1 closer to the coast, less for wet snow or where sleet mixes in per the NAM.

[NJwx85]

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Hey man, do you think this trends South any? Getting worried about the euro run

All of this back and forth is just typical model noise. This has honestly been one of the most consistently tracked storms that I can remember. Aside from the GFS we have excellent agreement on a wide swath of 12-18" from I-95 and points NW. Central NJ coast into Eastern Long Island could have some mixing issues but honestly I think most areas will be fine. Just have to understand that not everybody is going to get over 20" of snow.

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Man, areas between I80 and I84 are in prime position for this one.    I hope you guys are pumped.  

I'm pumped, kind of wish I was still living in Mahwah for this one.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro was suppressed with that too...

Every model was until 2 days before when the SREF  showed the big north trend .

Confluence was weaker which might be the same thing here again. Majority of our big storms were modeled to the south of us.

I have been going to sleep at 3am every night to view the models. It will suck if I did that for no reason.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

All of this back and forth is just typical model noise. This has honestly been one of the most consistently tracked storms that I can remember. Aside from the GFS we have excellent agreement on a wide swath of 12-18" from I-95 and points NW. Central NJ coast into Eastern Long Island could have some mixing issues but honestly I think most areas will be fine. Just have to understand that not everybody is going to get over 20" of snow.

Agree totally, also can't look at every single model run of every model or will drive yourself crazy, well I do that but I also know how to take them with a grain of salt even though I look at them. 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

NWS still has no Watch for NYC.    Only in NW NJ and inland Monmouth County.

Their own probability of >8" here is 50%.

Guess next move is Warning for current  Watch areas, and a Watch for us after morning runs are examined?

It's Monday morning and the storm isn't supposed to start until late Wednesday afternoon. Watches typically aren't hoisted until 36-48 hours prior to the start. I'm sure if everything holds you will see watches with the afternoon update. 

[NJsnow89]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm pumped, kind of wish I was still living in Mahwah for this one.

Appreciate it. I live near Edison. Getting worried about the north trends 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm pumped, kind of wish I was still living in Mahwah for this one.

where are you now?   You need to change your location on your avatar

[greenmtnwx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z Euro went more north. These north ticks have to stop.

Writing on wall Ant. We always knock these amped nam runs but often they prove correct with warning. NAM really warm for coast and city. 

[nycsnow]

14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

 

you said it was the same as the Euro... unless it was another riddle 

He used to do this on accuweather  he post all wpc products and leaves it at that you’ll never get something from him 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, billgwx said:

Kuchera ratios are way overblown for this storm...does not account for wind for one. I ran them yesterday for the OKX long term forecast for laughs...15:1?? As usual with the big storms, 12:1 probably best inland and 10:1 closer to the coast, less for wet snow or where sleet mixes in per the NAM.

With lighter winds I would think this event could be 15:1 area wide but it’ll probably end up 10:1 everywhere.  I guess inland maybe they get 12:1 due to frictional effects maybe giving them less wind