MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: This map has to be way over done for I95 east. They would see a lot of mixing with this track. Uh ? Temps are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 So it will come down to nowcasting an air mass then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Slower too no? Still right off AC at 9z. I think NAM/CMC had it gone by 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Further north than that. Its east of AC Pivotal doesn't have hr 81 so I concede to that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Yuck, horrible track for CNJ. I’m hoping the Euro is over amping this. Yea I hope it goes further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yea I hope it goes further east. we've had storms with that track be all snow here....think Millenium storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: This map has to be way over done for I95 east. They would see a lot of mixing with this track. not necessarily.... the Millenium storm cut across long island and there was no mixing here at all on the western part of the south shore of long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Further north than that. Its east of AC that track is fine even for long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 trend this. small window for big snow in the metro...trust me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Uh ? Temps are below freezing. it's more than just the track, cold air is getting wrapped into the storm also. Not all storms perform the same way even if they have a similar track. This seems to be a similar storm to the Millenium storm, where cold air got wrapped in all the way to the center and you could be 10 miles west of the low and still be all snow. As long as the low doesn't make it up to our latitude we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Doorman said: trend this. small window for big snow...trust me I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yea I hope it goes further east. no you dont....this is the kind of storm that is going to have a sharp cut off and where it snows very close to the low center....you want to be as close to the low as you can to get the heaviest snows (just nw of the mix line which be right near the low center). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18 hours ago, jfklganyc said: I don’t mind names if they were coming from a national weather service. I don’t like names that were made for branding, sensationalism, and ratings. I actually think it’s beneath us on this site to use weather channel names for winter storms Just my opinion the NWS should have done it themselves using their own criteria. Like they do it in Europe. But America is consistently behind Europe on many scientific endeavors (and politically too.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 17 hours ago, bluewave said: This storm will push up against one of the strongest 50/50 lows on record. Chris what is causing this? I see we've had anomalously strong blocks show up in various parts of the world...maybe the Atlantic's turn has come up again? La Nina or not, it wont matter, as it is really the blocking or lack thereof that determines our winter outcomes (see 2010-11). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I agree Hello Coasty.....see the 1004mb bubble on the euro and the match to the wpc prog.... they get an early looks at things ....the wpc time stamp is just after midnight 0530Z digital snow maps I think some forum has a thread for that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Ah, they had 40 and rain until recently. Weather for the masses unfortunately this is why the masses dont take meteorology seriously =\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Doorman said: Hello Coasty.....see the 1004mb bubble on the euro and the match to the wpc prog.... they get an early looks at things ....the wpc time stamp is just after midnight 0530Z digital snow maps I think some forum has a thread for that I enjoy your input. What do u think suppressed/strung out like gfs? Or amped tucked an mostly rain for coastal areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I enjoy your input. What do u think suppressed/strung out like gfs? Or amped tucked an mostly rain for coastal areas Mostly rain ? Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, Doorman said: Hello Coasty.....see the 1004mb bubble on the euro and the match to the wpc prog.... they get an early looks at things ....the wpc time stamp is just after midnight 0530Z digital snow maps I think some forum has a thread for that What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mostly rain ? Where? Monmouth ocean counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Monmouth ocean counties Lets root for a east shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro would certainly favor sleet in the city. 700 mb tracks overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Lets root for a east shift Yea I hope. It's hard to get a snow storm here. With a storm that amped an close to Atlantic city. No way it's not mostly rain in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 OK can a met explain to me why this low won’t blow up off ACY like any good nor’easter low and we get plenty of cold air in?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I enjoy your input. What do u think suppressed/strung out like gfs? Or amped tucked an mostly rain for coastal areas I think 6 plus for the metro will be a stretch.... this is the noaa metro prog for 7:00 pm Wed night 1 inch prog the euro has it weaken to about 1004mb trucking east 12 hours later do the math.... https://digital.weather.gov/ where is my mustard.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mostly rain ? Where? he thinks roasty coasty ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Yea I hope. It's hard to get a snow storm here. With a storm that amped an close to Atlantic city. No way it's not mostly rain in these parts Look up the track of the Millenium storm as it crossed central Long Island, it was all snow at JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Winter Storm watch up from 7am Wednesday to 7am Thursday for north and northwest NJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 From Topic headline at 6AM Monday 12/14/20. Please monitor NWS Watch-Warnings for this storm and associated statements and still uncertainty on where highest impact. There is/was some overall slight southward shift in the guidance in the past 24 hours and so my uncertainty for the forum is northern CT-Catskills, and LI/I95 southeastward. WPC still has 1.5"+ qpf just s of I80-LI and 3/4" into northern CT. Added the EPS 10 to 1 ratio graphic of both today and Wednesday nights storm. I think that serves as continued good starting point with the usual caveat on the northern and southern fringes. If you have travel plans Wednesday into Thursday I95 northwestward from VA through WV, PA, NJ, NYS and southern New England it's probably a good idea to consider changes, based on your NWS or other favorite media outlet forecasts. I think this will be a top 20 snow storm for a few parts of our NYC subforum (basically ~ 1 foot will prompt that review) but unsure where. For now between I95 to I84. Anticipating (not guaranteed) widespread closures or delays for all transportation systems I95 corridor northwestward Wednesday evening into Thursday morning,. For those who have access and wish to do so, you can calculate an experimental storm index to get an idea of what is probably coming. I don't want to presume more than Major yet (crippling is the next step up). Here is some information. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/?nesis Still variability in northward extent of heavy 1 foot snow ranging from the NAM Adirondacks to the GFS-RGEM I80-LI. UKMET is still quite far north. Ensembled r/s line looks to remain mostly south of I80-LI but awfully close, close enough to think sleet, rain or freezing rain mixes in for a time after the initial Wednesday evening thump for LI and s of I80. EPS continues almost unyielding on the widespread 8-18" snowstorm (isolated 2 feet possible in the banding somewhere north of I80-LI). Major power outages possible wherever the 6" of 32-33F wet snow accumulates along with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. If this were to occur, it would most likely develop between 9 PM and midnight Wednesday evening per consistent modeling of snow onslaught and wind gusts increasing past 30 MPH. Am targeting LI south coast and NJ coast but this will require 6" wet snow (32-33f). Isolated wind gusts above 50 MPH possible on those coasts. Snowfall rates of 1-3"/hr possible in northward transiting bands Wednesday-evening/ night. Where these tend to park on the northern extent of the storm, will probably be the 2 feet of snow, especially with ratios drier than 10 to 1 (maybe 13 to 1). NWS has the multi model ratio blend tool and BUFKIT can assist for those who have that tool. There could be closing bands of moderate snowfall Thursday morning after sunrise into early afternoon as the comma head tends to fold southeastward behind the eastnortheastward departing storm. Clearing the first few inches of snow around 8-10PM Wednesday will make it easier to remove the additional snow Thursday morning. Where it's wet-caution for those with heart conditions., This strong easterly surface gradient (northeast wind) between the cold 1035MB high over Quebec and and the probable 995-1000MB low near Cape May early Thursday will produce minor to moderate coastal flooding, for the Thursday morning high tide cycle. Follow NWS statements. So the base EPS snowfall graphic is added. Also multiple locations of whatever is in their climate database (did not check for missing data). This gives us an idea of amount goals to reach top 20... No guarantee anywhere but I would think 1 or 2 of these would make top 20. May not comment in detail again til late today or this evening, shifting attention to today. Have a good day and fun debating. Am still uneasy about the northward extent of the 00z/14 EPS 1" qpf which is still near the MA Pike. 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Hey @wdrag where can I find that same info for KDXR, HPN and SWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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