Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[HeadInTheClouds]

Throw out GFS and Ukie. Both are on crack. 

[Gravity Wave]

Ukie has consistently had the least impressive jackpot totals. I wonder if that's a function of the snow depth maps, because it certainly isn't spitting out less QPF than the other models.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Throw out GFS and Ukie. Both are on crack. 

Ukie looks in line with other models.

[Sn0waddict]

That looks nothing like the GFS lol.

[NJsnow89]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Ukie looks in line with other models.

Agreed. Our area is looking like a sweet spot.

[NJwx85]

Why do people still look at the GFS for coastal storms?

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Ukie looks in line with other models.

Not really. Hopefully the snow map will be posted. 12z gave Albany 2 ft and parts of Long Island nothing. I don't think thats happening. 

[NJsnow89]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Why do people still look at the GFS for coastal storms?

Gfs is the furthest south of any model. Ukie looks to be amped 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not really. Hopefully the snow map will be posted. 12z gave Albany 2 ft and parts of Long Island nothing. I don't think thats happening. 

Crushes Albany

[Rjay]

Lol

 

[cardinalland]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Lol

 

That's a crazy cutoff in CNJ, from 20" in New Brunswick to 0.1" in Toms River

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol

 

Right near Albany gets 2 ft again and Long Island gets skunked, lol. This is just not happening. This is just as non sensical as the GFS, just the opposite. My money is on Euro/CMC blend. 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Right near Albany gets 2 ft again and Long Island gets skunked, lol. This is just not happening. This is just as non sensical as the GFS, just the opposite. My money is on Euro/CMC blend. 

I think it’s just the snow maps algorithm.   The model would indicate Long Island sees way more snow than that 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it’s just the snow maps algorithm.   The model would indicate Long Island sees way more snow than that 

The models think Long Island is under water.

[Bigfoot]

Is that the latest uckie 2 ‘ Albany at this hr .12:42 am ..lol

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Bigfoot said:

Is that the latest uckie 2 ‘ Albany at this hr .12:42 am ..lol

Yes

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it’s just the snow maps algorithm.   The model would indicate Long Island sees way more snow than that 

 

[RU848789]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it’s just the snow maps algorithm.   The model would indicate Long Island sees way more snow than that 

Of course the UK is far, far worse than any other model for those SE of 95, with basically only 1-2" from DC to Philly to Asbury Park, whereas 10 miles NW of that line gets 10" and 20 miles NW gets over 15".  I can't see the gradient being that steep, but stranger things have happened I guess.  Are those locations showing very little snow getting sleet at least?  Hard to believe the snow to rain cutoff is that sharp for the whole storm.  I'd get incredibly lucky in the Edison area with 18" of snow, while friends 15 miles SE of me in Holmdel would get maybe 3-5" and folks 10-15 miles SE of there would get nada.  

[Doorman]

weak sauce at 1004mb    7:00 am edt  Thursday

reset your hopes for this system

p.s.  the euro will back it up

 

[KeithB]

euro another home run!!

 

[SI Mailman]

[Nibor]

8 minutes ago, Doorman said:

weak sauce at 1004mb    7:00 am edt  Thursday

reset your hopes for this system

p.s.  the euro will back it up

 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

Yuck, horrible track for CNJ. I’m hoping the Euro is over amping this.

 

[SI Mailman]

subtract 2 to 3 inches in NW NJ from tomorrow's storm

 

[Sn0waddict]

How far north does it go until it pulls east?

[Nibor]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

How far north does it go until it pulls east?

Cape May

[SI Mailman]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

How far north does it go until it pulls east?

What I posted at hr 78 seems to be the northern point.  It goes due east after.  

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

2 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

subtract 2 to 3 inches in NW NJ from tomorrow's storm

 

This map has to be way over done for I95 east. They would see a lot of mixing with this track.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Cape May

Further north than that. Its east of AC

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Euro a crush job for many including interior. GFS sucks. GN.