Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

There is no way Albany is getting 2 ft. Just not going to happen. 

Agree if anything the catskills will get the banding and they will get 2 plus feet. Albany will not get 2 feet from this storm and NYC will get at least 6 inches, I am pretty confident on both those statements.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, lee59 said:

I wouldn't really call it a bust because the high snow totals were some 4-5 days out. If you get your hopes to high that far out, you will bust a lot. Even now there is still so much time to do most anything. We still have a good storm to track and the uncertainty is what makes it so interesting.

Given the -NAO and high in place it would be a fairly significant bust if this ended up primarily rain near the coast or the average snow total amongst EWR/NYC/JFK/LGA was not at least 5-7 inches.

[White Gorilla]

38 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Wrecked up here

This looks like a fake weenie map someone in a basement in Albany would make!  Lol.  The two foot lollipop is right exactly on top of the capital district.... 

[Rjay]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

This looks like a fake weenie map someone in a basement in Albany would make!  Lol.  The two foot lollipop is right exactly on top of the capital district.... 

It's like if metsfan lived in Albany 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's like if metsfan lived in Albany 

I dream about living in the Adirondacks  all the time

[David-LI]

11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

We go through this with every storm, models will flip around. 

I remember only about 48 hours from the “storm of the century” the euro had close to 30 inches IMBY, I got around 6 inches

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Given the -NAO and high in place it would be a fairly significant bust if this ended up primarily rain near the coast or the average snow total amongst EWR/NYC/JFK/LGA was not at least 5-7 inches.

Well we have 3 days for it to trend a certain way. It won't be a bust if models show mostly rain by tonight's or tomorrow's runs. 

If it suddenly went bad 24 hours out or during the storm then I see that as a bust. 

And if things trend poorly then it is what it is, you can't get upset about the weather. The PNA is not good and the Atlantic blocking may not be enough to save us but we'll see I guess. 

Someone's gonna get a good storm, it just may not be the immediate NYC metro.

[SnowGoose69]

One thing is for sure.  The Euro just caved on tomorrow's event to the NAM

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I remember only about 48 hours from the “storm of the century” the euro had close to 30 inches IMBY, I got around 6 inches

Blizzard warning turned into 10 inches 

Gfs was right while everyone bashed it

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well we have 3 days for it to trend a certain way. It won't be a bust if models show mostly rain by tonight's or tomorrow's runs. 

If it suddenly went bad 24 hours out or during the storm then I see that as a bust. 

And if things trend poorly then it is what it is, you can't get upset about the weather. The PNA is not good and the Atlantic blocking may not be enough to save us but we'll see I guess. 

Someone's gonna get a good storm, it just may not be the immediate NYC metro.

That's why its never a sure thing 4 or 5 days out no matter how much model agreement there is

[jdj5211]

I'm liking the EURO through 72....about as perfect as a setup you can get for a monster in the metro area....

[snowman19]

The Euro is way stronger with tomorrow, that’s going to help move the baroclinic zone further east, the 50/50 low and confluence look much stronger, storm is most likely going further east and south on this run.....

[Rjay]

Euro gets up to Cape May and starts pulling east

[Ericjcrash]

Step back off the ledge guys. Congrats on Euro, that block is ridiculous 

[Rjay]

Euro also looks colder

[Allsnow]

Stronger confluence and High Euro ticked southeast. Crush job 

[cardinalland]

EURO at hour 84. Rain/snow line appears to be slightly south of 00z.

[MJO812]

Wow 

[Snowlover11]

euro is a massive hit

[Allsnow]

CCB!!!

[Rjay]

Sick run 

[jdj5211]

EURO is an absolute monster....about the best track we get get for the majority of the region to cash in...

[Tatamy]

[White Gorilla]

18 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Nice 

[jdj5211]

12-18 with 18+ spots at 10-1 ratios across most of the area....

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

Perfect for just about everybody. Lock it in

[Rjay]

The Euro is nice for the entire subforum but absolutely crushes our NW crew.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

Please lock that run in weather Gods. Thank you. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, JoshSnow said:

How are the winds?

Enough for blizzard conditions

[jdj5211]

keep an eye on the low placement...I noticed the low was offshore and then popped back to southern NJ...not sure of the implications in the run though