Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, JoshSnow said:

What???? The airmass is perfectly fine! That high is no joke and also it’ll be cold ground as is if we can get snow on monday

I meant the Monday event not the Wednesday one.  W

[SnowGoose69]

The icon finds a way to erode a CAD signature in 2 hours with the Wednesday event.  Even if the track happened you’d snow for longer than that 

[jdj5211]

0z GFS running now!  Let’s see what we got?! 

[jdj5211]

Came north about 100 miles for Monday event....still not a hit yet but much closer. Wednesday event setup looking great through HR84 

[David-LI]

17 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

0z GFS running now!  Let’s see what we got?! 

Welcome to the forums

[MJO812]

Gfs looks great 

[jdj5211]

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Welcome to the forums

Thanks!  Looking forward to a fun winter. Hopefully I can bring some knowledge and great discussion to the forum! 

[Ericjcrash]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs looks great 

DC gets obliterated 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs looks great 

Looks like a pretty classic setup to me, wish the PNA could be a little better but nothing's perfect? Huge arctic high dumping cold air in and confluence to the north. That should put a hard stop on any crazy northward push. If anything to me that setup says knife-edge cutoff to heavy snow somewhere vs. flurries and dry air. 

[MJO812]

[NEG NAO]

[jdj5211]

Beautiful hit! Anytime we have the cold air injection right before the overrunning storm...look out!  Now we just need a little more blocking to slow this baby down if we really want some big totals (18+) Regardless, a 12+ event for most of the region is a nice start to winter.

[jm1220]

Yowsers, blizzard verbatim on this run. A little fast moving for truly huge amounts but the only people who maybe worry would be SE NJ as the low tries to hug the coast before confluence pushes it east. Classic setup ahead of time makes it a big one here. 

[Ericjcrash]

Congrats guys. Jackpot city east.

[cleetussnow]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Congrats guys. Jackpot city east.

It’s a long race...

[White Gorilla]

Long way to go 

[jm1220]

And this is where amped wave 1 can help us out. It reinforces the 50-50 low, which helps form the confluence and drives the cold air in better. And it can be a nice 3-6" gloppy snow appetizer (I don't buy 6"+ the NAM shows) before this main show. I'm definitely interested in this setup-best we've seen in a few winters at least. At least it's not model nonsense-totally feasible how this can work out. 

[Allsnow]

[NJsnow89]

Quick question- don’t these types of storms usually trend north in time? Worried about the last min north trend which may warm us up. 

[White Gorilla]

18 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Quick question- don’t these types of storms usually trend north in time? Worried about the last min north trend which may warm us up. 

I am hoping for a north nudge from this model solution verbatim to get Mid Hudson Valley, Poughkeepsie, into heavier snow, but don't want you guys near the coast to taint either. 

[jm1220]

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Quick question- don’t these types of storms usually trend north in time? Worried about the last min north trend which may warm us up. 

With confluence like that and a huge arctic high, to me it can only trend north so far. If the high and confluence weaken that's another story. Verbatim I think there would be a very sharp cutoff between big snow and little because of the resulting dry air. 

[White Gorilla]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With confluence like that and a huge arctic high, to me it can only trend north so far. If the high and confluence weaken that's another story. Verbatim I think there would be a very sharp cutoff between big snow and little because of the resulting dry air. 

Praying it isn't Jan 2016 up here again.  Didn't even get a dusting.  

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, jm1220 said:

With confluence like that and a huge arctic high, to me it can only trend north so far. If the high and confluence weaken that's another story. Verbatim I think there would be a very sharp cutoff between big snow and little because of the resulting dry air. 

Yeah, we'll see where that cutoff ends up, it should be quite dramatic

[Kaner587]

I haven’t posted in here in a very long time.  Nice to be back! 

loving that we have a real threat to track. The trends the last 36-48h have been pretty incredible. More confluence better PNA more consolidated s/w. 

[NJsnow89]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

With confluence like that and a huge arctic high, to me it can only trend north so far. If the high and confluence weaken that's another story. Verbatim I think there would be a very sharp cutoff between big snow and little because of the resulting dry air. 

Thank you! Also, with confluence pressing down more each run, wouldn’t that trend this further south if anything?

[MJO812]

Cmc is going to be big 

[rossi]

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Thank you! Also, with confluence pressing down more each run, wouldn’t that trend this further south if anything?

Yes has been the case over the last 10 years in situations like this NYC on south have done extremely well 

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is going to be big 

Yeah, precip looks less impressive might catch up as it seems a bit slower.

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Praying it isn't Jan 2016 up here again.  Didn't even get a dusting.  

I remember that like it was yesterday unfortunately. Thats not going to happen this time. 

[Ericjcrash]

Canadian is an absolute crusher. Woah