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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

Upton all in with 90% chance of snow. They do mention the high could be modeled too strong though it actually got stronger this run 

so as this system approaches, expect snow to develop Wed afternoon, and then become moderate to heavy at times Wed night as the low wraps up just off the Mid Atlantic coast. Forecast mentions almost all snow at this point with a good chance of significant accumulation, with the caveat that the high to the NE may be modeled too strong, and if the high does retreat more quickly that could allow for a more N/W low track as well as potential for mixed precip for the NYC metro area and Long Island as marine air and possible warmer air aloft get involved.
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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
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1 minute ago, rossi said:

So that’s it no more tracking it’s over - based on a 18z gfs run- what’s wrong with you?

Rossi - we are talking about possibilities - my point being you have to keep all options on the table - did I say its over ? whats wrong with you ??and tell me you would stay all snow with a tucked in solution and water temps in the upper 40"s

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Wannabehippie

Wannabehippie

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NYC would probably stay all snow if that track verified to a T.  The GFS won't see the CAD or ageo impact in that event.  Probably would hold winds 040-050 in that setup and never flip

You probably would have to get to Mid nassau, especially along the south shore, to get a flip to sleet/freezing rain and rain on the current run right? 

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KeithB

KeithB

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I remember about 5 years ago, we had discussions about trends. A couple of the guys did a little back test work, etc.... 

I think the conclusion was that there really are no trends in terms of being able to predict the future model runs. It's no different then looking at a roulette wheel the last xxx amount of results, or a baccarat results tabulation. Trends are just looking at the past on independent trials, and just because 3 straight model outputs have been closer to the coast in subsequent runs, that probably (and this can be proven through the historical data, but someone would have to do the work, and it would be a lot of work) there is no such thing as a "trend" in the sense that one particular direction on future runs is more or less likely. 

  

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

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2 minutes ago, KeithB said:

I remember about 5 years ago, we had discussions about trends. A couple of the guys did a little back test work, etc.... 

I think the conclusion was that there really are no trends in terms of being able to predict the future model runs. It's no different then looking at a roulette wheel the last xxx amount of results, or a baccarat results tabulation. Trends are just looking at the past on independent trials, and just because 3 straight model outputs have been closer to the coast in subsequent runs, that probably (and this can be proven through the historical data, but someone would have to do the work, and it would be a lot of work) there is no such thing as a "trend" in the sense that one particular direction on future runs is more or less likely. 

  

Its interesting that the high didn't move or weaken. Maybe the confluence was weaker this run?

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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7 minutes ago, KeithB said:

I remember about 5 years ago, we had discussions about trends. A couple of the guys did a little back test work, etc.... 

I think the conclusion was that there really are no trends in terms of being able to predict the future model runs. It's no different then looking at a roulette wheel the last xxx amount of results, or a baccarat results tabulation. Trends are just looking at the past on independent trials, and just because 3 straight model outputs have been closer to the coast in subsequent runs, that probably (and this can be proven through the historical data, but someone would have to do the work, and it would be a lot of work) there is no such thing as a "trend" in the sense that one particular direction on future runs is more or less likely. 

  

It’s probably more accurate to use the term model biases. Seasonal storm track biases have been well documented. But we would need to use machine learning for real time model bias correction to the forecast maps.

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