Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[NJsnow89]

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

I am at the 78/287 intersection in NJ. I can’t remember the last time I didn’t have BL/ML concerns. 6 or 26” I really don’t want to be a 850 line jockey for once.


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What town are you from?

[wdrag]

WPC 1750z updated graphics...  awfully wet NYC...  I hope it's right, because oof the GEFS which has a pretty darn good 500 low at 12z/17.  Still want to see the EPS.

They've slightly tempered confidence in PA. 

[David-LI]

If we get enough snow looks like temperatures will remain cold enough for a white Xmas

[crossbowftw3]

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Hopefully not and I don't think so but the possibility of a further south and east  trend where NYC metro gets the goods and we get much less is very real 

 

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yes. I'm not usually that optimistic but it would actually take a lot to go wrong for the City not to do really well with this storm. Its the northern and southern areas of the subforum where some shifts will make big impacts. 

A rather concerning run nonethless. Tonight and tomorrow's runs will be very telling where this ends up. My suspicion all along is this eventually evolves into a 95 crusher and we might have just taken the first steps.

[NorthShoreWx]

51 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Can this guy be banned?  

Im still scarred from that one living in Long Beach at the time. 

You missed a good one.  14" total here including about 6" in 2 hours.  Ended as some freezing drizzle on the north shore while it was plain rain in OC.  Some of those guys were a combo of disbelief and less than happy with the topsy turvy outcome.

[friedmators]

What town are you from?

Lebanon.


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[romba]

12Z

Euro:

UKIE

GFS

CMC

 

 

[NJsnow89]

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

Lebanon.


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Nice! I think you are in a perfect spot for this storm. I am about 25 miles east of you in South Plainfield NJ

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, romba said:

12Z

Euro:

UKIE

GFS

CMC

 

 

An average of all these runs nets us here just north of 84 at 9 inches.  We take.  Let's see how this moves forward. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, romba said:

12Z

Euro:

UKIE

GFS

CMC

 

 

NYC metro and NW really cash in but all 4 models are quite different for other areas

[CIK62]

12Z Cobb Method for NYC is now   33".        Anyone believe this???

[Nibor]

Just now, CIK62 said:

12Z Cobb Method for NYC is now   33".        Anyone believe this???

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

NYC metro and NW really cash in but all 4 models are quite different for other areas

The axis of heaviest snowfall has the immediate NYC metro in the cross hairs. At 4 days out that's pretty impressive model consensus. 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

12Z Cobb Method for NYC is now   33".        Anyone believe this???

Always start conservative especially 4 days out

 

[weathermedic]

10:1 ratios (if that occurs) means that’s 3.3 inches liquid. I would cut those accumulations at least in half or even a little more.

[North and West]

NYC metro and NW really cash in but all 4 models are quite different for other areas

.

[North and West]

Do I indulge the whims of my kids? They’re already mentioning, “My teacher said it might snow next week,” to which I reply, “A lot has to come together, but the ingredients are there.”

They then sigh and mutter, “Dad, you ALWAYS say that.”

We’re in MMU, so I think it looks favorable. Until then.


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[NJsnow89]

Euro ensembles has a lot of tucked in members. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Euro ensembles has a lot of tucked in members. 

Yep normal this far out 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Euro ensembles has a lot of tucked in members. 

Yep definitely favors the interior but most of the area still cashes in

 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yep definitely favors the interior but most of the area still cashes in

 

So different than gefs 

[David-LI]

35 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

12Z Cobb Method for NYC is now   33".        Anyone believe this???

nothing is impossible but very low chances

[sussexcountyobs]

40 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

12Z Cobb Method for NYC is now   33".        Anyone believe this???

Yes. I believe it if you cut it down by 60%

[Poker2015]

1 hour ago, friedmators said:

Lebanon.


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Hey neighbor, finally someone else from my area. I'm in Branchburg with another member too.

[justinj]

Nws calling for a rain snow mix for south central Suffolk LI until after midnight. Anyone agree with this or believe it will be all snow?

[Ericjcrash]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So different than gefs 

EPS not as amped with Monday, that's why they're more amped Wednesday. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, justinj said:

Nws calling for a rain snow mix for south central Suffolk LI until after midnight. Anyone agree with this or believe it will be all snow?

Mixing is very much a threat for a time along the coast

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So different than gefs 

Hopefully the op run is closer to right but I think it’s onto something with this trying to tuck in. 

[wdrag]

Hi... I see some posts on the 12z EPS.All these op model members are part of the entire group.  I want to think that the 12z EC op for the northeast is a lower end member.  

Checking the 12z/12 EPS ens... the qpf is just about as robust as the GEFS and basically close to the WPC 1750z solution.  Snow maps (10 to 1 ratios),  about the same or an inch higher than the 00z/12 cycle and both cycles are higher than yesterdays 12z.  Very steady. 

So,   banding,  IF a 700MB closed low is across  LI or passing by 44025 will make up for lower qpf I84 region.

In essence, I want to see the following cycles not decrease too much.

The 850 low on the EPS is quite quite nice (see the 06z and 12z projections with excellent near 50 knot ensemble inflow). Because of 40s sst, have to think sleet rain mixed at times LI/I80 or I78 southward, (during lower precip rates) after the probable initial burst (1/2S) of snow Wed afternoon I95 corridor. Also, if it does go over... that spells trouble on further snow accumulations rates til the column cools significantly. 

Attached successive cycles of the EPS storm snow, plus the 850 MB wind 06z and 12z/17, plus the 850 anomaly gradient near LI and finally the NORMAL 850 temps for OKX.  To me the suggestion is 850 zero is very close to the south shore of LI.  

None of this is gospel...just brings up things I try to remember to consider.  I don't haven an answer but do have cautions I80 south but rossi could be right. 

[Oliviajames]

12 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi... I see some posts on the 12z EPS.All these op model members are part of the entire group.  I want to think that the 12z EC op for the northeast is a lower end member.  

Checking the 12z/12 EPS ens... the qpf is just about as robust as the GEFS and basically close to the WPC 1750z solution.  Snow maps (10 to 1 ratios),  about the same or an inch higher than the 00z/12 cycle and both cycles are higher than yesterdays 12z.  Very steady. 

So,   banding,  IF a 700MB closed low is across  LI or passing by 44025 will make up for lower qpf I84 region.

In essence, I want to see the following cycles not decrease too much.

The 850 low on the EPS is quite quite nice (see the 06z and 12z projections with excellent near 50 knot ensemble inflow). Because of 40s sst, have to think sleet rain mixed at times LI/I80 or I78 southward, (during lower precip rates) after the probable initial burst (1/2S) of snow Wed afternoon I95 corridor. Also, if it does go over... that spells trouble on further snow accumulations rates til the column cools significantly. 

Attached successive cycles of the EPS storm snow, plus the 850 MB wind 06z and 12z/17, plus the 850 anomaly gradient near LI and finally the NORMAL 850 temps for OKX.  To me the suggestion is 850 zero is very close to the south shore of LI.  

None of this is gospel...just brings up things I try to remember to consider.  I don't haven an answer but do have cautions I80 south but rossi could be right. 

Thanks Walt.  I am a PA northwest of Philly guy but always come to NY forum to hear your thoughts.  Hoping for a blizzard.